tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8446351548038522890.post2344550792169245189..comments2024-03-28T16:15:19.319-04:00Comments on Saideman's Semi-Spew: Complicated Canadian Constitutional QuestionsSteve Saidemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09881915512311951902noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8446351548038522890.post-91505772196158351122011-10-15T02:16:37.055-04:002011-10-15T02:16:37.055-04:00Steve:
Here's the poop on polls in Quebec: it...Steve:<br /><br />Here's the poop on polls in Quebec: it all has to do with language demographics regarding Canadian unity questions. 20% of Quebec's population is non-francophone and they are a block of "no" votes when it comes to referendums on separation and matters such as Bill 101. Indeed, anglophones voted, literally, 99% "no" in both referendums (demographic expert Pierre Drouilly's figures, not mine). This exceeds even the well-known 90%+ block vote by African-Americans in the U.S. for the Democratic Party.<br /><br />So, take all the figures you reproduced from that poll and discount it 20% for the non-francophone element and it paints a quite different figure. For example, the 59% that said that Bill 101 should comply with the so-called Charter of Rights (probably the most flawed "rights" document on the planet, but that's another story) translates into 59 minus 20 = 39% of francophones said it should comply and 41% said that Bill 101 should take precedence.<br /><br />A much more interesting poll was the one Don MacPherson talked about a few months ago in which it was found that 1/3rd of all Quebecers who voted NDP (44% of Quebec's popular vote) said they'd vote "yes" in a sovereignty referendum. That's 14% of all voters. <br /><br />Now add that 14% to the 23% who vote for the Bloc (virtually 100% of whom would vote "yes" in a referendum) and you've got 37% "yes" voters, which is 75% of the way to 50% plus one, the country's Official Opposition's (ie, the NDP's) threshold for Quebec to unilaterally declare independence in direct violation of both international and domestic law.<br /><br />Conclusion: contrary to this poll (conducted by a very pro-federalist think tank!), separation is alive and well in Quebec. All this poll will do is serve to put federalists to sleep as regards the separation threat. Recall that when Pierre Trudeau left office, separation support according to polls was almost in single digits. A few short years and one humiliation later (ie, Meech Lake) and support was back into the 50-60% range, culminating in a near win for the "yes" in 1995.Tony Kondakshttp://www.whycanadamustend.comnoreply@blogger.com