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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Germany Divided

Seems like Merkl's decisions of late have not played well domestically or internationally.  Lots of strange stuff here.  Germany did pull out of the NATO fleet in the Med because its involvement in the embargo would have required a vote in the Bundestag.  But the tale here suggests that winning such a vote might not have been that problematic.  Seems like both parties in the coalition are in revolt against their leaders, suggesting a big mis-read of what would, ahem, fly domestically.  Even the peaceful Greens are criticizing the government for setting German hopes for a permanent UN Security Council seat a decade or two. 

Indeed, one of the strangest parts of this is that the Germans are being good allies by sending more folks to Afghanistan to backfill the allies who need to send airborne surveillance planes to the Med. 
Opposition lawmakers were unimpressed, however. “It’s a perverse logic,” said Wolfgang Gehrcke, foreign affairs spokesman of the Left party, “to exacerbate the war in Afghanistan because one doesn’t want to get involved in a war in Libya.”
I am completely confused.  It would seem to me that the Libya operation could have been one in which the Germans could participate without either casualties or killing (see the Italians for how to fly/sail near but not over Libya), supporting a mission that would potentially prevent flows of refugees towards Germany, and not really do much harm overall.  A new mission like this is going to be more popular than older mission (rally around the flag effects tend to be short-lived).  I was not terribly surprised to see Germany stay in the background, but its more active refusals seem strange. 

Yes, state elections are ahead, but the actions taken by the government and reactions inside and outside seem to be a bad way to go.  Could they have anticipated this reaction?  Maybe if they talked to the backbenchers?

2 comments:

  1. Being German myself, I'd say the colleagues
    over at the kosmopolito blog
    capture the issue rather well. Also, the ECFR is right to point out that Germany, especially with the current conservative government, lacks a comprehensive foreign policy strategy.

    As for the decision to pull out of NATO's operations in the mediterranean, it's not so much about the vote in the Bundestag, since, as you correctly observe, they would've easily won that vote. Again, this is about the state elections and the fact that in Germany, you usually don't win elections with a war. Personally, I think it was a pretty hasty decision in order to avoid smear campaigning á la "military contribution through the (NATO in the mediterranean) backdoor" by the opposition. The decision was also already criticized by the current defense minister and I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see Germany supporting at least the NATO operations enforcing the weapons embargo in the mediterranean after those state elections are over.

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  2. Regarding the explanation of Germany's decision to abstain in the UN Security Council, my colleagues from the kosmpolito blog pretty much nail it. Also, the ECFR is right to point out that Merkel's conservative government simply lacks a clear foreign policy strategy.

    As for the decision to pull out of NATO's operations in the mediterranean, it's not so much about the vote in the Bundestag, since, as you correctly observe, they would've easily won that vote. Again, this is about the state elections and the fact that in Germany, you usually don't win elections with war. Personally, I think it was a pretty hasty decision in order to avoid smear campaigning in the line of "military contribution to the Libya operation through a NATO (=Mediterranean operation) backdoor" by the opposition. I believe this decision was also criticized by the current defense minister and I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see Germany supporting at least the NATO operations enforcing the weapons embargo in the mediterranean once the state elections are over.

    ReplyDelete