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Sunday, June 5, 2011

Who Had Late June?

I proposed a betting pool for when Qaddafi would lose power.  It is increasingly looking like late June is looking pretty good (congrats, Brandon) with more defections by senior officers who report that Q's military capacity is collapsing.
Gaddafi will fall in a few weeks' time, morale is so bad both in the army and in the population,” said General Halassa, who defected a week ago with his wife and five children. He said rebel and NATO attacks as well as shortages of food and fuel had demoralised Colonel Gaddafi's forces.
On Friday night Britain deployed its Apache helicopters for the first time, attacking and destroying two military installations, a radar site and an armed checkpoint.
General Halassa said: “Sometimes the rebels or protesters who are killed are relatives or friends of men in the army; the killers and the killed are related, and that hurts morale even more.”
General Oun Ali Oun, formerly of the military intelligence service, said a group of 120 officers and soldiers who had defected were now in Tunis. Many others had switched sides and joined the rebels, or were in hiding. source
Note not just what they are saying but who is saying it, especially when generals from the intel branches.  They have not only the most knowledge but also often the most to fear if they stay on a sinking ship. 

There are no guarantees, of course, as Qaddafi has held out longer than Milosevic, but, then again, the demands here are higher--loss of his job, not just a loss of territory.  I do think that Q's end will be sooner rather than later.  But I have been wrong before.

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