Hope is Not a Plan

NATO seems to be expecting 5,000 Europeans to show up to help the US surge.  Where are these troops going to come from?

• Well, when Albania is one of the first listed, to move from 250 to x, not a good sign.
• Spain will send 200 more, but since its troops are heavily caveated it is not clear that they could do much to add to the mission.
• Italy is going to kick in more.  Lovely.  Given that their sector is a mess, it is not clear what the reinforcements would add.
• Finland is adding to its 165 troops. 

France is not sending anymore troops (although there is some wiggle room), Britain thus far seems to be on the hook for 500 more, and Germany has not made a decision, but any new troops would require approval by the Bundestag. 

So, the math seems off to me, unless Poland is doubling from 2k to 4k.  Plus it does not seem to include the subtractions--the end of the Dutch mission in 2010 and Canadian one in 2011.

Together, NATO may cobble together enough troops to meet the 5k goal, but the original US hope was 10k, and many of the new troops would be coming from countries that are not very useful in a counter-insurgency campaign that requires putting troops into danger by placing them amongst the population.