Civ-Mil in the Usual Suspect

Turkey got frontpage treatment in the NYT as there has been some wrangling between the civilians and military.  The military has long played the role of guardian of Turkish secular rule, coming into power on occasion.  So, the news is focused on the civilians pursuing some officers who had been, allegedly, involved in coup-plotting.

And the key story as the NYT piece identifies is the non-news--that the military is not fighting back. 

“What came out of that?” said Baskin Oran, a professor of international relations at Ankara University. “A big nothing. This is finished. Turkey has crossed the border.”

There are concerns that Prime Minister Erdogan, former or not so former Islamist, will overstep.  Going after an active general and a prosecutor yesterday may be going too far, but still the military seems inclined to stay in the barracks.

I am no expert on Turkey, but this article does highlight the key aspects of civil-military relations--the role of the senior officers, the distribution of power, and such.

Turkey has been overlooked while attention has focused elswhere--Greece, Iraq, and Iran--but it will continue to be a major player and its civil-military dynamics will bear watching as it will take a while for restraint to become institutionalized.  If Erdogan really oversteps, then the military might awaken.  Institutions are only as strong as the respect the various actors have for them.  If Erdogan diminishes various institutions, then the military may well follow that example, to Erdogan's regret.

This game is hardly over.