Equilibria, People, Equilibria

I am cranky because my body clock has not re-set yet so I woke up way early on my first morning back home.  So, when I see articles that indicate that the Health Care vote would be close, I am reminded of one of the few lessons of American politics I gained in grad school (having successfully avoided all courses in that subfield):

Vote outcomes in the House and other legislative bodies are the results of strategic action.  The final result is an equilibrium that was produced by actors that essentially knew the final outcome--a win for the Dems.  Once the party's leaders knows that it is going to win, then they can allow folks to defect, especially those with fragile districts.  So, the vote on bill such as this or the famous tax hike in 1994 are going to be very, very close.  As long as the party can be sure that it will go over the top, the margin itself is really not important.  This does not mean that the Dems cannot lose, as folks may change their mind and as the party leadership may screw up the count.  But a close vote by itself should not be surprising.  Indeed, it should be expected.