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Monday, April 5, 2010

Drone Warfare Intensifies

The use of drones in Pakistan presents a lot of serious tradeoffs, so take this article with a large grain of salt.  There are two pieces of information here that are pretty suggestive:
  • That the locals are trying to distance themselves from the militants because they don't want their houses bombed.  Obviously, civilian casualties are wrong in themselves and could alienate them further, but the realization that these outsiders (which many of them are) are bringing harm with them is not a bad thing.
  • The drones have created a good deal of suspicion so that new Arabs from outside are not welcomed immediately due to fears that they are US agents.  Whether they are or not, this means that recruitment and replacement are far less assured and even present significant vulnerabilities. 
I do not want to be too optimistic or positive about these developments, but the sad reality is that the US faces few good options.  Karzai is unreliable.  The Pakistanis have been unreliable over the course of time, as they see Afghanistan as "strategic depth" against the Indian threat, and as their control over their own military and intelligence agencies is suspect.  Are drone attacks THE answer?  No, but they make be making a dent where other means are unavailable.  

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