Written on the plane to SFO from DC (what else would I do with six hours of my time)
There can be only one.
But will it be me? I changed
planes at Dulles Airport, and did not learn whether I won or lost my semi-final
match. I think I won for the simple
reason that my adversary had a terrific day in real life—an Easter event at the
White House and then kind of special dinner.
Yet he might have outpolled me or had gotten heaps of support from the
judges with his tale of his kids at the White House (apparently, Defcon was
changed from 4 to 2 thanks to the aggressive nature of Creep’s Easter Egg
rolling) plus dining with one of the judges. UPDATE: I won! Woot!
I would like to have won as I learned from Dan Drezner’s
post this morning that there is much glory and perhaps even a cool gift for
coming in second. Also, 2nd
means that next year I get to be a judge and not a contestant. Which means I can get work done next spring
and revel in the schadenfreude.
Have I given up? Nay,
but I am aware of the challenges facing me if I am, indeed, in the finale. First, whichever combatant won the other
semi-final is going to be mighty tough. TexasinAfrica has been the overwhelming
favorite, not just in Vegas* but in the hearts and minds of those following the
event (she is the COIN-master).
*Her pre-tourney odds started at 5-1 as
she was a top seed and showed tremendous prowess last year. The updated odds were 2-1 as of Sunday. I am guessing that if she won her seminal,
the odds would now be 1-2.
She combines expertise in all things Africa (apparently the
hip place to be these days) with an enthusiasm that is just a wee bit over the
top. Plus she punches and
counter-punches quickly and with much snark.
Also, she has 50% of the population cheering for her to beat this
male-dominated field. This year’s TFC
had many more women in it, and several went quite far. But previous finals have been sausage
fests.
Blakehounsell is the editor of Foreignpolicy.com, and thus
commands much respect. Well not for the
damned listicles or pop-ups but for developing the best IR web outlet south of
the Wall (CIC commands the North). Many
members of the twitterati publish at FP.com or aspire to do so.
(As I type this, Life of Pi is showing
on the screens in the plane—no choice on United. I have not seen it before and only half
paying attention, but is this movie really just Joe Vs. the Volcano with the
tiger playing the Meg Ryan part? Ok,
new scene on the screen—make that Joe vs. LSD)
Either one would be an incredibly
challenging foe. While I have faced many
mighty folks to get this far, I have been lucky. I missed one high seed because he was flying
and could not present his jaundiced view of IR and of his own food. I ducked another who really is much closer to
having it all than most folks. If I won
yesterday, it was in part due to the absence of the competitor (although I also
prepared much and fought hard anyway). Still, this is my second deep run in #tfc13 in my two years in this competition, so it ain't all luck.
Making it yet more challenging are
the circumstances facing me tomorrow: a conference in the US. The conference means that I have limited time
to devote to this effort. I will be participating
in one panel, attending a second (which I can live-tweet to an extent)* and
having meetings all day long and then dinner with some of the defeated
combatants (Speechboy and Dr.Farls) and some other folks. So, I will certainly not be able to keep up
the volume of tweets or be responsive.
*
The panel I will be attending stars some of the most dynamic and
interesting people studying conflict: Erica Chenoweth, Will Moore, and
Christian Davenport. [Each has a newish
blog (well, Erica has co-organized the relatively new mega-blog Political
Violence @ a Glance that includes the other two plus me)]. So, they may provide much live-tweetable
material. Plus I know them, so they
probably would not mind too much letting me make fun of them for the sake of
#tfc13.
The more difficult hurdle is this:
as a resident of Canada, my cell phone roams when in the US. The roaming rates are utterly brutal, far
worse than for the American phones wandering through Canada. Turns out the lack of competition impacts
price—who would have thunk it? What this
means it that I will only be able to tweet in the presence of wifi. The Hilton will have wifi but the lunch and
dinner destinations most likely will not.
Again, I have not given up. I have some ideas about how to attack
texasinafrica as her previous adversaries missed some vulnerabilities I have
identified. I am not sure how to attack
blake since others have already attacked the weaknesses I have observed. I will not able to generate and deploy as many
memes like I did yesterday:
My schedule in SF gives me some
time this afternoon and evening and tomorrow morning to prepare and maybe even
schedule some tweets (after I figure it out).
All I got thus far is this:
I need to do better as victory tastes
great.
So, if I won the semi-finals,
follow me on Wednesday at @smsaideman and #tfc13 and vote for me at twitterfightclub.gunpowerandlead.com
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