If there is anything that does not need a reboot or a sequel, it is the American Civil War. Trump is now retweeting those who think that impeachment not only will cause a second civil war but should. This is, of course, awful. That a President would prefer a civil war over his own removal makes it even worse.
But let's be clear, this new civil war won't be like the old one. A better parallel would be the 1990s where far right extremists blew up a federal building, robbed banks, and did other nefarious stuff. No one claimed the US was in the middle of a civil war. One might hesitate to call the 1990s a period of insurgency, but, well, it kind of was. And it was mostly put down by the FBI and other law enforcement agencies. Yes, it led to more radicalization in the prisons--because that is where one puts white supremacists who engage in violence, but better there than out in the streets (or in the White House).
A few friends of mine who study extremism have been saying for quite some time that no matter how the Trump Administration ends, there will be violence. That the white supremacists will either be upset by the change in power or opportunistic to use that transition--be it by resignation, impeachment, lost election, or the end of a second term*--and engage in acts of violence. As in shooting cops and other law enforcement, attacking federal buildings, etc.
Some militias might be sufficiently organized to attempt insurgency rather than random acts of terrorism. So, yes, people will die. But it will not be blue vs. gray or blue vs. red armies fighting long campaigns. Why? Because the situation is not the same. A new Democrat in power will not lead to the loss of people's property (remember the stakes of the Civil War?) nor are states themselves the key actors. So, there will be far fewer resources, far less support, far less intelligence (have you seen these guys tweet?) behind the anti-government side.
It is easy to make fun of these folks, but the battles will be deadly serious. Still, this is mostly, if not entirely, a job for the FBI, the ATF, and other law enforcement agencies. I have seen plenty of tweets asking what the US military thinks about Trump's civil war tweets. My answer is that unless the white supremacists actually develop into a serious insurgency, it ain't the US army's job. The FBI and the others can thwart, at some cost, these extremists. Again, it will be bloody, but the more this is kept a law enforcement problem and not a job for the US military, the better off we all are.
Of course, I could be wrong. I just don't us thinking military first when we should be thinking law enforcement. Folks might say that the FBI is tainted by who is running the Department of Justice, but, guess what, who is running the US military? The same President. So, I am just betting on folks at lower levels doing their jobs. All I know is that we need to start preparing for an escalation in violence as the inciter-in-chief is not going to go down peacefully.
*My bet remains on the 2020 election or heart attack/stroke. I don't think the Senate will convict.
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