Sure, I have also been wrong about international relations, but my wrongy wrongness is much stronger and more immediate when I voyage away from my expertise and spew about American politics. I didn't take any American politics classes in grad school, so what I learned I largely I gained through osmosis and through the methods classes that mostly had American politics stuff. And I also translate what I learned from comparative politics which often applies quite well, like the ethnic outbidding stuff which continues to make sense of the larger patterns.
Of course, I was so very wrong in 2016 and had excellent company. And then last week, I wrote that it was a bad idea to replace Biden. It turns out it was a great idea.... oy. Why was I so wrong? I had no idea that the party would consolidate so quickly around Harris. Several of my top 11 reasons are pretty much addressed by Kamala's rapid rise: this move does not alienate a core part of the Dem constituency, the convention will not be contested, it turns out there was one magical candidate standing on front of us the whole time, this could be pitched as going along with the will of the voters since Harris was part of the ticket essentially during the primaries, it still pisses off the donor class (woot!), and it turns out there was a plan--that Harris had been organizing so that she could take Joe's announcement and run with it.
I just didn't expect it to go so well so quickly. Of course, I should not jinx it as there will be bumps in the road, but:
- All of the major potential candidates endorsed quickly.
- Most key orgs--unions--signed on immediately.
- Her first speech was short, snappy, on target, and featured Beyonce, which means that Kamala has a better organization than folks remember from her early VP days.
- The flow of money has been incredible--there is huge enthusiasm from many sectors of the party.
- The obnoxious donors are still pissed, so fuck 'em.
- Biden shifted the money to her quickly although the GOP-led Fed Elections Commission may have something to say about it (but I thought regulators were killed by SCOTUS?).
- The crop of VP candidates is strong although the anti-Shapiro movement is on and, yes, makes sense.
- I have learned not to underestimate Pelosi. Damn.
- In her first rally, Kamala Harris made clear she is going to be a strong campaigner with a strong message--freedom, not going back, clear on abortion (which Joe could never be).
- Trump still is trying to defeat Biden. This reminds me of 2015--when Harper kept saying Trudeau wasn't ready and then Trudeau did well at the foreign policy debate, it took away their one play. Trump was so focused on Biden being old, he has lost his main line of attack. All that merch wasted. So sad.
- The rest of the GOP is flummoxed. How racist and misogynist should they be? Hard to set the dial on that.
- The contrast between Kamala and Vance is so stark, she is pretty damned likable (and, yes, hot), and Vance is easy to hate. The tweets about Vance not being from here--that he washes his cast-iron pans, that he buys his moonshine in a store--have been wonderful. Here's a strong, successful woman and Trump doubled down by picking perhaps the most misogynist Republican senator (yeah, that is a tough contest).
- Lots of stuff now out there that refute some of the stuff thrown at her in 2020--that she is actually quite good on trans rights, for instance. That she has been critical of Netanyahu and will not attend his speech (what a shitty idea to give Bibi a platform in the US).
- Perhaps most of all for the Dems--the end of uncertainty. They now have a candidate they can believe in. Sure, she is running against misogyny and racism, but both Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama won more votes than their opponents. The trick, of course, is getting those votes in the right places.
I don't think anyone could have guessed a late change in candidates would go this well. The hard part now is figuring out which Kamala merch to buy.
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