Serious Sweden

 I have spent the past week in Sweden as part of the Phil/Steve/Ora project seeking to understand the dynamics between defense agencies (departments/ministries of defense) and militaries in democracies around the world.  I was here in Stockholm last summer for the ERGOMAS meeting, but this trip was more like my visit to Finland last April.  One big difference, besides the weather being far more pleasant, was that I had a very well-wired reservist senior officer act as my fixer.  As a result, I met with a couple of former Ministers of Defence, a recent Supreme Commander (what they call their chief of defense), and several other high level current and former officials.  So, I got what I needed.

Another big difference is, well, the Trumpness of it all.  My fixer kept asking me to give a Canadian perspective on the state of things.  Most hadn't quite realized how serious Canadians are taking the 51st state craziness.  Once I put it into the context of how everyone around here lined up with Denmark over Trump's Greenland threats, they got it.  I did interview a Saab rep as he had previously been in defense, and I suggested that they might still have a chance to sell the Gripen to Canada as it will become very difficult politically for any Canadian leader to ship billions of dollars to the US to buy a plane when the US is increasingly becoming an adversary.

The Swedes understand that Article V of the NATO Treaty, an attack upon one is equal to an attack upon all, is either dead or in a coma while Trump is president.  They get it.  Some suggested that they need to invest more in bilateral ties since the multilateral effort may not work out so well.  

Sweden is serious about this stuff.  During my first day of interviewing, we were interrupted by a regular alarm--every Monday apparently--that, if any other time, would signal an attack (presumably Russian).  The Swedes had been cutting their military for decades and organized it around expeditionary operations (Balkans, Afghanistan, etc), and since 2014, the budget went the other way.  Sweden is now at 2.4% defense spending/gdp and is headed towards 3%.  They went from not having any planes flying on holidays to putting a regiment on Gotland.  They stopped conscription in 2010, and then restarted it, now with women being drafted as well as men.  It is not the full out conscription of the distant past--they only take 10% or so of each cohort.  The struggle is developing enough capacity to train more and more people.

There is much discussion of Total Defence--civil defence, mobilization for war, and all that.  I have been asked by the Canadian media should we do the same.  I scoffed as (a) the old civil defence people are nostalgic about involved bomb shelters that would not shelter folks from nukes, (b) the Russian military threat to Canada is inflated.  The conversation has, of course, turned to civil defence against... US attacks. And again, I am not sure if the expense is worth it.  I am still pretty convinced that the conflict between Canada and US is political and economic and not military.  And I also think that Trump might risk munity (military refusing orders, not a coup) if he tries to use force against Canada.  I think shooting protestors and attacking Canada are far likely to get more resistance than, say, grabbing Panama.

One thing that did rub me a bit the wrong way--lots of references to World War II as if they had taken a side.....  Very strange.

Anyhow, I got a lot out of this week, including freaking out some Swedes about Trump.  I didn't do much tourism as I spent most days interviewing folks, and I had seen stuff last summer.  I did go to a couple of medival kind of restaurants because I needed some silliness.  

Back to Berlin for some interviews there plus a roundtable on whether militaries can help stop democratic backsliding. I am going to have to postpone my plans to do this research later this month in Poland--I don't have my act together.  So, I will probably travel in western Germany to interview a general and see a part of the country I haven't seen thus far.  Much more work to do on this project, and I am lucky that folks are willing to talk about this stuff.  More interesting conversations ahead.