Game of Thrones Pool of Life, the Draft

How did the Game of Thrones Pool of Life draft go?  Well, let's see what people chose and we can make fun of them.  I will, as I have in past games, suggest who has the best odds to win.

1. Rob is likely to last longer than his namesake, as he drafted Sam, Tyrion and Yara.
2. Sara couldn't attend but chose Gilly, Brienne of Tarth and Bran.  
3. Wendy chose Sansa, Lyanna Mormont (who was on many lists) and Bronn.
4. Brandon was also absent, but had a strong list that went deeper than most: Varys, Podrick, ArchMaester Ebrose
5. Art picked Dany, Missandei, and Drogon.  He wins big or loses big since Dany and Drogon, well, fly together.
6. Caitlin joined us late and chose Arya, Gendry, and Greyworm
7. Elliot, the Patriots apparently of this league with the last draftpick, chose Jon, Cersei, and Sam's kid.

So, quite a mix with some folks panicking as their turn came around and others with an eye to the long game.

Let's take a closer look and here's my guesses:

• Rob is likely to get 3 points--everyone thinks that Sam has to live to chronicle the wars.  Will Theon rescue Yara is the big question.  I think he will die trying, but so will she.  The Iron Islands are a tough miserable place, but that could be a big three point swing for Rob.  Tyrion?  Will Jon/Dany need him after the wars?  The thing is--he is the most fun to write for, which keeps characters alive (I just heard that in a podcast, I think, about Madmen).  So, Rob, with his favorable draft position used his sharp consulting skills and is a co-favorite to win.
• Sara is in pretty good chap with Gilly being mostly out of harm's way.  Brienne is likely to die in battle since she is going to be at the front.  However, she is a hell of a fighter, so Sara, too, has a good chance. Bran?  Ah, that is a puzzler.  He could die because, well, he sucks in a fight and three-eyed ravens do die.  But he is superpowerful and it seems that despite how much the showrunners do not like him, compared to how GRRMartin feels about him, he could play a key role.  Right now, I think Sara is a favorite to get 6 points.
• Wendy went for the kid fighter, but as my wife would put it, GRRMartin is a bad man and so are these showrunners.  We have seen great leadership skills from Lyanna but fighting?  Nope, she is no Arya.  She might be more like Dobby  Sansa?  She is quite a survivor, so I would not bet against her.  She will also be less exposed as she is not a fighter, and Brienne and Arya will both defender her.  Bronn, however, is dead meat.  Sure, he is, as Caitlin put it, a cockroach.  But he has sided with Cersei and that will not end well.  My guess is that Wendy has one player left at the end (who then dies in the X-Men movie this summer and then lives and then dies because that is what Phoenixes do).
• Brandon went with some interesting choices.  Varys is a survivor and is not a fighter, so he will not be in harm's way very much, although the conversation he had with the Red Witch is suggestive--that death is nigh for him.  Podrick is going to die, as his greatest skill is in the brother and not on the battlefield.  Ebrose?  He might be a one-pointer as we are unlikely to see much of him now that Sam is no longer at the Citadel.  So, Brandon is in good position to finish second or third.
• Caitlin faced a diminished draft pool, but made some clever choices.  Ayra is very skilled and his armed with a Valyrian weapon.  That combo is promising, but, then again, do we want a sociopath to survive?  Hmmm.  Not sure.  Gendry is strong and needs to get his hammer back.  But he has to die since he is a rival claimant to the throne.  Sorry.  Greyworm is going to die--the questions are only where and by whom.  Since he is not really that interesting of a character (he does not speak many funny lines), I expect him to die fighting the dead.  So, Caitlin would be lucky to end up with three points.
• Finally, Elliot, who made a great choice and an awful one and then a good one.  Jon has a very good chance to survive, since as my wife reminds me, this is a Song of Ice and Fire and either Jon is the Ice to Dany's Fire, or he is Ice and Fire since his parents were Starks and Tarygareans.  He commands a Dire Wolf and is liked by dragons.  The big question no one raised is the status of Ghost.  Damn.  Anyhow, great last choice in the first round.  However, Elliot then made the worst choice--there is no way Cersei is going to live.  She is fated by prophecy to die and most likely by Jamie's hand.  Who will then die.  And then Sam's kid.  There is a good chance that Sam's kid survives to tell the tale to the next generation.  So, Elliot, despite a poor draft position and an incredibly poor second round pick, is in good shape to finish near the top.  
• Oops, I omitted Art, probably because he is going to win?  Either TeamDany wins all the way with Dany, Missy and Drogon surviving and ruling or all die.  There is no in between.  This is like picking a top QB and his wide receivers--they all do well or all do poorly.  Again, a song of Ice and Fire with Queen Fire sticking around to the end?  Hmmm.

Given that there is a good chance that two or more players will end up with two of their characters each left alive, we have a good chance at a tie.  So, between tonight and the start of the first episode, each player must submit to me via email or DM or raven or whatever their answers to the three tiebreakers:

Tie breaker #1: who sits on the Iron Throne at the end?
Tie breaker #2: how many dragons are alive at the end?  And, yes, undead dragons count as alive if they are not really, really dead. 
Tie breaker #3: how many people does Arya assassinate in the final season (not including battle scenes because, damn, that would be hard)?  Oh, and Price is Right Rules: closest without going over!

So, that's where things stand.  Enjoy the week of suspense and get ready for a thrilling set of Sunday nights.  I will be posting late each Sunday night/Monday morning since my ultimate frisbee league does not end until May 5th, and then I will be in Germany for two weeks of research.

Enjoy the ride!