The New York Times Book Review does a pretty good job of explaining a key concept that I had largely learned by osmosis: Bayesian updating. How ought we update our beliefs? I have not read the book that is being reviewed here,"THE THEORY THAT WOULD NOT DIE: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy" by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, but I should, given how often Bayes comes up in political science.
The funny thing is that we live in a time where there seems to be no updating--no matter how much evidence is revealed, folks do not seem to be updating and revising their prior beliefs. Will this book change my mind about this belief? Um, maybe.