The best line of the night, but the most inside baseball might be this one:
#APSA2012HungerGames Short break in carnage so everyone can agree that Thomas Friedman has no idea what he's talking about.
— W. K. Winecoff (@whinecough) August 27, 2012
While some would think the Neo-Realists would do well, since they focus on security or power (depending on the time of day), they might get distracted by blaming some heretofore ignored domestic actor for the policy failures.
Much of the money by the "sharps" in Vegas moved to favor the comparativists who have fieldwork experience and study contentious politics. Will Reno, with much experience hanging out with warlords, working in places like Somalia, and known to have the biggest biceps in the profession, is currently the favorite at 4 to 1. But he does have some challenges as there is a whole new generation of hip kids who not only study insurgency and have done fieldwork in Afghanistan, but also have survived the worst academic job market in history. And they do not lack confidence:
@texasinafrica @danatgu @smsaideman I have 2 kids under 2.5 years so I've been training for #APSA2012HungerGames for years. Reno is mine.
— Jason Lyall (@jaylyall_red5) August 27, 2012
The longest odds? Post-materialists. They will find that in the Hunger Games that it is not so much the intersubjective meanings applied to arrows and bullets but the accuracy and power of the weapons launching them. Blood may have all kinds of symbolism, but when it drains out of a post-modernist, the logic of consequences will dominate the logic of appropriateness.
Alas, the formal theorists will be killed first. Why? Because they will have very difficult time getting their LaTex to work in all of the rain and wind.
I am not going to the conference, so I can only grieve the losses and then participate in the next twenty years of study, where we fight about:
- whether the games being played were chicken, stag hunt, prisoners' dilemma, or deadlock;
- whether the actors were pursuing relative or absolute gains;
- whether the rational actor assumption is useful or appropriate (the Phil Arena fixation);
- which pop culture best describes the games, and, yes, many will argue against the conventional wisdom that the Hungar Games best applies. Indeed, Drezner-ites will insist that Zombie movies and books provide the most insights into APSAHungerGames 2012. Somehow, Charli Carpenter will blame The Machines instead.
- the scholars of civil war will debate about whether the Hunger really mattered, as grievances are over-rated.