Canada and American Asylum: Invoking Madisynn

[Caveat: I am not an immigration lawyer, but friends of mine who have explored this option have not found clear answers from immigration lawyers]

  It is not what you think.  Every four years, I would hate folks who said that they would flee to Canada due to a bad US presidential election result.  This time is very different.  Last Trump election did produce a bunch of people who did try to flee to Canada, some at great cost as they tried to walk into the country in mid-winter, losing lives and limbs.  This time it will be very different.

Canadian authorities need to be thinking about this RIGHT NOW, as the weaponization of the Department of Justice with Matt Gaetz Pam Biondi as Attorney General and Kash Patel as head of the FBI will people to rightly fear prosecution and persecution.  Not to mention "massive deportation" where the US government will put people into concentration camps before sending them to whatever country that will take them (Rwanda?)  There has been much discussion of target lists for those who have had the temerity to be decent public servants, real political opponents, or honest, dedicated journalists.  

Should they flee to Canada?  The more important question is: can they? First, the existing asylum policy is mostly focused on an agreement with the US that if an asylum claimant first goes to the US, they can't seek asylum in Canada, and if they first get to Canada, they can't claim it in the US.  Notice this does not really imagine Americans residing in the US seeking asylum in Canada.  So, it is not clear what will happen if Americans just show up in Canada and then seek asylum.  The good news is that they can get in, claiming to be a tourist or whatever, and then they can go .... damn, I have no idea.  But they can get in to the country. But staying?  No idea.

Which gets to the second thing: how about immigration? Can't Americans immigrate into Canada? Mostly, there are two pathways: family reunification and employment.  Americans can't just immigrate--they have to apply and there are processes.  If one has a job offer from a Canadian entity, then one can become a temporary resident that can lead to permanent residency and ultimately citizenship (as happened in my case).  However, the Canadian employer will have to justify why they need to hire a foreigner rather than a Canadian, and most employers don't want to go through this effort or subsidize the applications of the candidates.  My immigration was part of a larger federal policy aimed at reversing the brain drain, and McGill University also had no hesitancy about claiming that some academic was special enough that there were no Canadians that were as worthy.  So, immigration is hard but not impossible, costly and not free.

Third, Canada is not a paradise.  We are very much likely to elect a transphobic government (plus a few provinces are already enacting transphobic policies), so trans people seeking to escape persecution in the US may not find Canada to be that great of a place. 

Fourth, getting back to asylum, the Canadian government is going to have to think about the consequences of granting asylum to Trump's targets like General (ret.) Mark Milley or the Biden family or whatever.  If China is willing to hold a couple of Canadians hostage for a couple of years because Canada holds onto an extradition target, what would the Trump administration do if Canada grants asylum to some visible targets of Trump's resentment?  I wouldn't count on Canada to being that brave about it.  

Sorry for the pessimism here, but better to have a realistic plan than a dream when seeking to avoid persecution.  And, yes, Canadians will feel like shit and apologize a lot, but may not be that helpful.