Today was our first day of briefings in Manila. Our small team of two DND Public Affairs people, me, and a think tanker joined a group of Colonels/Navy Captains from the Canadian and other armed forces as well as civilians. That group is from the Canadian Forces College as they run an extensive end-of-the-term trip. The group hit Japan first and will be going to other places out here after they leave us.
We met with Canadian embassy folks as well as some Filipino officials. Since the events were under Chatham House Rule, I can't attribute anything, but I will say the ambassador here is super sharp and not just because he has some Philly experience.
First, some basic stuff that is politically important:
- about 1 million Canadians are of Filipino descent, so there are significant ties. Second largest source of foreign students for Canada
- federal/presidential system based on the American model but with single 6 year terms for the President. That the entire upper layers of the govt come and go with Presidents is very American.
- Very much family dynastic politics. President is Ferdinand Marcos Jr, VP is Sarah Duterte, daughter of previous president who was quote autocratic. And these two dynasties do not like each other. The next electionin 2028 will be .... interesting.
- seven times more water territory than land mass, 60% live on the coast, 36km of coastline, 25% of world's martime workforce
- most disaster prone country in the world--earthquakes, volcanoes, super typhoons. Oh my. This has apparently led to some resiliency with whole of society responses when disaster strikes.
- population is about 3x Canada's
Second, it is a great/sad example of the third order consequences of the Iran war. The Philippines gets 90% or more of its energy from outside the country, so the oil crisis induced by Trump's war has made a big impact. Not just making it more expensive to travel, making food hard to grow (fertilizer), etc, but their Navy and Coast Guard can't operate as much. Which means China has far more latitude to mess around in the region. And Russia is now selling oil here. So, well done, Donnie. Always the master strategist. Oh and 2.5 million Filipinos are in harm's way in the Gulf.
Third, the Philippines has become the focal point of Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy. It has Canada's second largest embassy, mostly because it is the regional hub for various diplomatic admin stuff, but still. It is now visited 4x a year or so by Canadian naval vessels (given how much stress the navy is under with their very old ships, this is a big deal).
Fourth, much was made of like-mindedness. Former colony, speaks English, democracy, trade, open society, both live near unreliable behemoth.
Fifth, apparently Filipinos consume social media more than any other country, spending 8 hours a day, mostly via facebook--2+ fb accounts per person. Lots of misinformation/disinformation from China and from the competing parties.
Sixth, Canada is quite visible and appreciated here. One reason: Canada handed over a system that helps detect "dark vessels." This is a system for monitoring illegal fishing, but, well, the Filipinos are using it for much better situational awareness of lots of folks in their waters. A very big deal that was low cost but huge impact.
Finally, the most significant thing I learned are about the third order consequences of the Iran war. A second order consequence is increased oil prices for a very import dependent country. Which then has the impact of limiting how much the Filipino armed forces can sail and fly, which means China has more room to play. Not great. Thanks, Trump.
Additional observations:
Any senior policy positions are occupied by retired senior military officers (I have no idea what effect this has, but as a civ-mil person, I couldn't help but notice). It was explained that the military is most meritocratic part of society
The general military stance has shifted from fighting rebellions/terrorist groups (Abu Sayef) to territorial defense--China. But one person said the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea as they call it here is already lost.
More after another day of briefings!
Mis/disinfo
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