Treaty of Versailles 2: Electric Bugaloo

 It does not take an IR scholar or an historian to note the significance of Donald Trump signing onto a "deal" with Iran while he's at Versailles, site of the treaty that temporarily ended WW1 and set up WW2.  I have a few thoughts to add to this perfect illustration of how dumb and tragic this war has been:

The costs here are understated:

• Trump alienated allies by starting this war without giving notice.  So, it only led to physical destruction in the neighborhood, but harmed US relations with them.  Even Canadians were harmed since Iran hit a Canadian base in the region.
• Probably putting off any chance for the Iranian people to either put pressure on their government to reform or to get it to collapse.  The US killed potential replacements to the regime and ultimately produced a government that is probably more radical than the last.
• How many Iranians paid with their lives for Trump to get this inferior deal? 
• The US engaged in war crimes, including the recent attacks on water plants, which is significant stain that will have consequences. 
• Speaking of war crimes, this war deepened the crisis in US civil-military relations because Trump and Hegseth got the military to do some pretty awful things here.
• The cost to countries around the world of higher oil prices is not just in "global financial costs" but starving in some countries and energy crises that may have increased their vulnerability in others (the Philippines had much reduced capacity to patrol at sea and in the air to push back at China).
• Trump made the Chinese alternative more attractive--who is the reasonable country and who is the out of control aggressor now?
• Higher oil prices also help Russia.
•  The US not only depleted its stocks of missiles and smart bombs but also lost a number of expensive and relatively scarce planes--AWACS planes and tankers.
• Note that this chart does not include the costs in Lebanon.  This war gave Israel permission and space to engage in yet further unwarranted and unproductive brutality towards people who have had nothing to do with the crimes committed against Israel on October 7th, 2023.
• US gave up its role in maintaining freedom of the seas and taught every country that owns one half of a strait that they could use that geographic advantage to charge tolls for passage.  The post WW2 prosperity depended on this ability for trade to flow freely.  On the bright side, maybe China will replace the US to maintain the flow?  Oh, wait, that's not good news. 
• The big criticism of the original Iran deal, the JCPOA, was that it didn't affect Iran's missile capabilities.  No deal to limit that.  Now we have Republicans saying that the Iranians can just keep their missiles for their own defense.  So, the Party of Bad Faith betrays one of their major talking points about how bad the Obama deal was.   
• The other claim the anti-JCPOA folks kept making is that it did nothing to stop Iranian support for terrorism.  Um, and this deal did?  Nope. 

I could go on--there is no upside for this war.  Trump gave away the store and a lot more for a deal that is far inferior to one that Obama got via diplomacy.  This is all so tragic and stupid.  Remember one of the claims folks made was that they voted in 2024 for the candidate promising no more wars....