We Have Not Run Out of Scary Sauce

One of the problems with the health care reform debate has been the ability of its opponents to cover the various reforms in what I call "scary sauce."  Myths, hyperbole, and extremely unlikely extensions of aspects to make the bill sound like a dramatic invasion into people's lives and the destruction of their current health care.  Slate does a nice job of clearing away some of the scary sauce:

• There will be no chip inserted into our brains.  Good news.  For some, that would be very hard anyway due to dense skulls and microscopic brains.  (Sorry, too easy)
• No jungle gyms.  I saw the video of Jason Mattera ambushing Al Franken.  This one example really shows how we all have confirmation bias.  The right sees it as Franken avoiding the conversation.  The left and reasonable folks in the center see the video as one of a rude person ignoring the reality that Franken points out--no jungle gyms in the act.  And no $7 billion clearly committed to the building of anything like jungle gyms.  
• Firms will not be forces to have babies breastfed in the front office.  The language in the bill is about allowing women a short period of time to express their breast milk in private--and only for businesses over 50 people.  This is akin to providing a space and time for smoking, except breast-feeding is probably a bit better for one's health than smoking.  But I am sure that Mattera's fans might disagree.
• No forced vaccinations.  Of course, prevention is cheaper than treatment so one could imagine the government might provide more incentives for prevention, as a way to handle costs.  

Once again, to opponents of the reform act, I say suck it up.  You lost.  Move on.  You can try to reform the reform act, but repeal is not in the cards.  It might be a winning political strategy--for primaries and perhaps for some districts, but it is not going to play that well.  But as David Frum has already noted, the Republicans seem pretty committed to finding a cliff and then drive off of it.

Silly Liberals

There are those on the left that are not happy with the health care reform act.  It does not go far enough (not single payer), it concedes too much (restrictions on federal $ going to abortions), and the like.  But, if this article is correct, then the reform goes further than most liberals wildest dreams--of addressing inequality.  Raising taxes on the rich to cover the expansion of health care coverage to most of the population--isn't that what American liberals have longed for?

The more I read of this law, the more I like it.  Funny how passage has suddenly produced a bunch of information about the bill--victory apparently wipes away the scary sauce.

Gaming Health Care

Nice application of some simple games to the health care mess.  PD and Battle of the Sexes!!  Woohoo!

And the conclusion is that these dynamics are built into the system--on purpose (even if the founders did not imagine filibuster abuse).

That doesn't mean the Founders didn't want health care reform to pass. 

It just means they intended it to be a pain in the ass.

Following Health Via Steve Greene

Check out Steve's blog.  He has more knowledge about this health care stuff, so I will rely on him to justify my indignation at the left and at the Republicans. 

Health Care Reform Sucks Less Than Some Think

See Steve G's post that links to other stuff that argues that the passage of the current bill would be a good thing, if not the best that we can imagine.

And, yes, Obama has not given the Liberals everything they have hoped for, but he is the best they can expect anytime soon.  You think Hillary Clinton would not be dodging and weaving to the center?  That the Senate would not be getting in her way or in the way of some imaginary alternative? 

As I have said before, Obama got an historically bad set of cards to start his administration, and has been thoughtfully trying to work things out.  The problem will be that avoiding disaster will not that well, but I cannot imagine that McCain or Clinton would have done as well on the economy, on the wars, or on health care. 

I do think that Obama has made mistakes, particularly on implementation--that his folks should have used their discretion differently on transparency and the like.  He needs to move on gays in the military--define it as a readiness issue and get going.  But his plate has been incredibly full. 

Speaking of the Cold: The Cold Realities of Health Care Reform

Very clear discussion of the ramifications of the failure of health care reform.  And, as a result, a pretty clear expectation of something/anything passing.

Death Panels

Very interesting op-ed in today's NYT by Representative Blumenauer who put the piece of language in the reform bill that became known as death panels--that doctors should be reimbursed for conversations they have with their patients about how to handle the end.

Health Care Reform Passes House

It looks pretty ugly--the bill includes restrictions on federal funding for abortion and it passed narrowly--with two more votes than necessary.

We should not be surprised by either outcome.  Abortion is still a highly divisive issue, and there are enough house seats where an incumbent cannot appear to be supporting the funding of abortion.  In surveys, majorities are against banning abortion but they are also against federal $$ for abortion. 

I avoided American politics classes throughout my life, but I did pick up one or two nuggets along the way.  One of them is consider a vote total as an artifice of party organization, even or especially a narrow one.  So, once the Dems knew that it would pass, they let those in more vulnerable positions to vote against.  At least, that is the theory, and I have no reason to doubt it here.  I am sure that some political scientist will look at the vote on this bill and determine that Dems in red or purple districts, Dems in first or second terms, Dems with stronger competition (I don't know how that would be operationalized) voted against the bill.  Just a guess. [NYT has a good start on this]

Oh, and this was the easy part.  We knew that a Health Care Reform bill would get through the House of Representatives.  Getting through the Senate will be quite difficult, but the chances are pretty good for that now.  On the other hand, as both my past week of cards and last night's (and this morning's) final table of the World Series of Poker demonstrate, low probability events just mean that something is unlikely, not impossible.

The Weenie Party

Why do the Democrats always seem to wimp out?  When Lieberman went postal against the party, the Dems should have cut him off at the knees, dropping him from leadership posts on key committees.  But no, they let him again and again screw the party.  The latest, of course, is health care.  That Joe would betray the voters of Connecticut (guessing that the public option is popular there) is hardly surprising.  That the Democrats will probably flail and then fail will also be expected.

Are there any prominent Democratic politicians in the state that can run the next time Lieberman's seat is up?

Best Health Care Reform Ad

Those silly folks at Funny or Die have given us a new ad for Health Care Reform--do think of the endangered Health Insurance company in this time of crisis, please. Sob.

Protect Insurance Companies PSA from Will Ferrell

Do Not Underestimate Obama

I am beginning to think that there is one guy in DC playing chess and the rest are playing checkers (or perhaps tic tac toe). Obama may dither or it may be that he prefers to let others set the stage and entrap themselves. While I did not watch the speech last night (too tired), the coverage today seems to be pretty clear: the Republicans looked like fools (not the good kind of fool in Chris Moore's latest book that I just started). Nothing makes Obama look more Presidential, more moderate, and more reasonable than the juxtaposition of blackberry-tapping, fer-shaming, "You lie"-ing with the speaker of our time.

In conversations last week at APSA, I was kind of wishful thinking that Obama was setting a trap for the Republicans. I am not sure whether this was really deliberate, but perhaps Obama is the shrewdest opportunist of them all. He could not have anticipated how nutso the GOP would act, but I think he is now reveling in it. As Bill Clinton learned when Newt Gingrich shut down government, being the reasonable one is a powerful position.

Of course, health care reform is still going to be very difficult (as noted by Machiavelli). However, I am now pretty sure that Obama understands that there are larger games being played here, and he plans to win the big ones, even if he has to sacrifice the occasional piece along the way.

Perhaps We Ought to Kill Grandma

In a pretty harsh but perhaps entirely on target post, Ira Rosofsky insists that senior citizens are pretty darned selfish when it comes to health care:

Polling by the Annenberg Institute indicates that old people have historically been the most opposed to spending more on healthcare for children.

When I taught American/Texas Public Policy back at TTU, I learned a great deal (having never studied American politics or policy before that), including how distorted public spending is on folks over 65 when compared to those under 18. "Children are our future" is just so much hogwash. The reason, of course, is that senior citizens vote, and those under 18 cannot. I am not advocating that kids should have the right to vote, but perhaps the senior citizens ought to think about other folks than themselves. Not going to happen, but I can dream--I am still young.

Killing Grandma

Nice Slate piece on who really has tried to kill the elderly:

It was Sen. Grassley himself who rammed the GOP's most astonishing pro-death policy through the Senate in 2001. The estate-tax revision he championed reduces the estate tax to zero next year. But when the law expires at year's end, the tax will jump back up to its previous level of 55 percent. Grassley's exploding offer has an entirely foreseen if unintended consequence: It's going to encourage those whose parents and grandparents are worth anything more than a million bucks to get them dead by midnight on Dec. 31, 2010. This would be a great plot for a P.D. James novel if it weren't an actual piece of legislation.

Faced with an unpalatable choice between cutting benefits and raising taxes to pay for the growing costs of entitlement programs, Republicans gravitated toward a third alternative—restraining growth in life expectancy. If you want lower taxes and aren't willing to risk cutting spending, you need fewer beneficiaries.

I couldn't be more cynical than this article, but it would be amusing to try.

Counter-Revolutionary Movement of the Week

Some of the supporters of health care reform are getting wonderfully snarky--with a mock campaign against other government services that reek of socialism: fire departments, public education, police, etc. There is now a facebook group against socialist fire departments. Hence the picture of the fire truck with the Hitler 'stache.

I plan on introducing my group of TA's to my big lecture class next week as my death panel.