Monday, May 23, 2011

Deja Vu All Over Again, Or Libyan Pool O' Regime Change

I already suggested elsewhere that Libya seems to be a lot like the Kosovo campaign of 1999:
  • The wish that bombing would easily/quickly lead to the desired outcome.
  • The stated refusal to put boots on the ground.
  • The impatience of the public media.
And now the French and British are deploying attack helicopters.  My guess is that these helos will get more use than the American ones deployed to Albania in 1999, but that would not be hard since none of the US helos were actually used.  The US military and the Clinton administration worried far more than Wesley Clark, who was heading NATO's military at the time, about helos being shot down.  Because the French and the British pushed this effort and face heaps of criticism for sucking the US and NATO into another endless war in the Mideast, they have a bit more enthusiasm and willingness to take risks than Clinton did in 1999.

More importantly, it is a good thing I held off on posting a new game (in honor of the anniversary of the end of Lost and my fantasy game).  When will Qaddafi lose power?  Either to violence or to quitting?  Rather than holding a draft, I am simply going to offer up options and folks choose via comments which time period they will take (or none at all):
First, one can choose the rest of May--that Qaddafi will fall soon, very soon.
Second choice is first week of June (1st-7th), perhaps hoping that the anniversary of Kosovo is a harbinger of things to come.
Next: June 8th-20th--Qaddafi just wants to outlast Milosevic's record.
June 20th to July 3rd--things start to get too hot for Qaddafi, jail cell in cool Hague sounds good.
July 4th--if it is good enough for Will Smith, it is good enough for Qaddafi.
July 5th-28th--Qaddafi wants to give a gift to me or my many relatives who have a birthday in this period.
July 29th-August 30th--Qaddafi wants to sneak out while most of Europe is on vacation.
August 31st-Sept 4th--Big events seem to happen during the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association (Katrina), so Qaddafi will quit while most of the American experts are otherwise indisposed.
Sept 5th to the end of the year--slow but steady wins the race?
Last possible choice: Qaddafi lasts as long as the world (if the world ends on Jan 1st 2012).  This is the choice for the NATO doubters--that the effort fails and Qaddafi sticks around.

In this game, the choice is Q or not Q.  If Qaddafi is replaced by a military regime, that is still a win for NATO for the purposes of this game.  After all, we do not know what the outcome is in Egypt, except for Mubarak is gone.

My bet would be on the middle of June.  One of these compounds that NATO hits will eventually hit Q or his supporters will start to step away from him.

Oh, and the stakes: if you win, you get to have a guest post here at the Spew where you can post whatever you like, including most embarrassing tale about me.


Brandon Valeriano said...

I will take June 20th, money will start to run out and opposition will be more organized and trained.

Matt Eckel said...

I'm going with July 5 - 28.

Unknown said...

I wanted to go with 4 July, but that is too close to Matt. I can't make it to APSA this year, so I'm going to go with August 31-September 4 since I'll probably just be surfing the net anyway. At least I'll get to see it break live on Twitter.

Chris C. said...

A quick glance at the European elections calender makes me think the August bloc is a good pick, just enough time to ensure he's gone before the Sept. local elections.