This last 24 hours has been something for the campaign. Trump retweets a Mussolini quote and then goes on TV and refused to condemn the KKK. He either knows the white supremacists are a key constituency that he cannot dump quite yet or he actually believes the shit he spews. In either case, this stance is going a wee bit too far.
Not just too far in terms of decency but too far in doing what most politicians due in primaries vs general elections--run to the extreme during the primary and then move back to the center for the general election. It is always a bit tricky since one leaves a path of statements that can be used by the opposition to raise questions about the sincerity of the more centered stances.
Well, this time, things are different. Trump has gone so far to the right, embracing all forms of hate and xenophobia, that he will have the KKK and other white supremacists tied to him in the fall. This not only means that he will not get many votes from African-American voters, but also he will have a hard time getting votes from Latinos (nice move, accusing a judge of being biased for being "Spanish"), Asian-Americans (no fans of the KKK and white supremacists), and other minorities except those who really hate Muslims.
While the number of "independents" are exaggerated in the US political system--most people lean either GOP or Democratic--these stances will alienate many of these folks in the middle. Yes, Trump might get some racist whites who tend to vote Democratic, but he is going to lose most of the middle and that will make up for it.
Oh, and people were worried about minority turnout in a post-Obama election? Pretty sure that Trump's white supremacism is going to help with that. Another note on turnout--folks were pointing out that the rate of turnout is higher in GOP primaries than in the Democratic one. Well, duh. It might be meaningful, but it might also be that a two person race with someone who is largely a sure thing is going to draw less than a wildly entertaining many candidate race.
We shall see. This campaign has proven me wrong quite a bit. But it is hard to believe that a man who is widely reviled for everything he stands for is going to beat a woman who has withstood attacks for decades and seems the stronger for it. Of course, I am still going to figure out how much to charge the American refugees who want to live in my basement.