Priced In Means What?

 Trump's debacle at Arlington National Cemetery.  Wow.  So, the question is whether it moves the needle or not.  I argued on bluesky:

The basic idea is that we all know that Trump is a thoroughly awful human being, and what I mean by priced in is that either one hates him and will vote against him (if one turns out) or one doesn't care/doesn't believe/loves him and vote for him (if one turns out).  We have plenty of evidence that accumulates on a daily basis.  How much more can folks with some sense of decency be repulsed by this guy?  Those who want him in power because they resent (insert group here) don't care or don't believe the crap that he does.  Or maybe they don't see it because of Fox blindness or whatever bubble they live in. 

The best counter-point I got (thanks, Marcy) is that the newer voters don't know about this stuff--they were 10 years old in 2016.  Fair point.  And the media keeps treating Trump like a new candidate rather than focusing on what he did as President--risking wars, appointing perjurious SCOTUS justices who ditched Roe v Wade, engaged in all kinds of corruption and abuse of power (remember that first impeachment trial), Muslim ban, etc. So, yes, new news about Trump's current depraved behavior may resonate some among younger voters.  

But then again, usually, there aren't that many younger voters, and they aren't the ones talking to us on social media.  So, my comments about priced in largely target most voters--that their preferences will not be altered.  Either you want democracy and personal freedom or you want power and graft.  Or one has so thoroughly been radicalized that no proof will shake their faith in Trump.  I also recognize that much of the media is invested in keeping Trump alive in this race. 

Of course, the margins may matter in this election (I am starting to think this election may not be so close--a post for another day). So additional offensive behavior, such as shitting on veterans and those who lost their lives fighting America's wars, may move the needle just a smidge and that might make all the difference. 

Will new outbursts of Trump's racism and misogyny and homophobia (he is increasing his trans bullshit) and Vance's history of abhorrent statements dripping out each day matter?  I really do hope so.  I am just so tired of all of this, and I recognize that the polarization of our times means that most people have already decided who they are going to vote for now that, well, Biden is out of the way. I hope the sharpness of the Dem campaign matters, and I hope the incompetence of the Trump campaign matters.  

Can anything happen now to shake up the race?  A bad debate performance by Harris?  Probably not as much as Biden's because it won't confirm people's fears about her being unqualified for office.  Would a Trump disaster at a debate matter?  Maybe as it could cause a cascade of people losing faith?  One of the key things Trump has got going for him is his continued menace--that people are afraid to stand up to him because his supporters engage in political violence.  Maybe if Trump displays his dementia at the debate, it might cause the rats to leave the sinking ship.  But I doubt it because cognitive closure remains pretty powerful.  People hate admitting they are wrong (except me, I admit I am wrong all the time).  So, again, I am not sure anything can happen that will shake things up unless the FBI announces they are investigating Harris a week before the election.  Of course, they would never do that....

And, yet, despite how much I think all of this is already set, I follow the Harris/Walz campaign, I think their social media game is good (I thought the same of Hillary's... oy), and I applaud friends and relatives who are knocking on doors, sending postcards, making calls.  This is inconsistent, but then why shouldn't I embrace the moment, just as "Christians" keep supporting a twice-divorced, philandering, grifting gambler.

To sum up, it comes down to this, ultimately.  Either you believe another Trump term will be catastrophic or you want him to use the power of the state to oppress large swaths of the American people.  So, how much will assaulting staff at Arlington move the needle?