Today, we had a series of high level briefings, and we got a good idea of where the Philippines stands in this part of the world: on the edge of a World War. Ooops, too dramatic? The day was mostly based on two sessions--one with senior civilian folks and one with senior military officers. We then met with some think tank folks, but I was pretty tired and left early.
In the first session with a senior civilian defense official, I asked about their view of the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan and what would the Philippines do. Re the latter, if things get hot, they can't avoid being involved given how close the Philippines are to Taiwan. Just as Japan had to attack the Philippines to get to Indonesia (Dutch East Indies at the time) at the start of the Pacific War, China would have to clear its flank when attacking Taiwan. Plus there are a few hundred thousand Filipinos there which also increases the stakes. However, this official argued that China will probably not attack--that the war would be very costly and that they can get their way via Taiwan's domestic politics. But, yes, China is the only country where the legitimacy of the regime hangs on foreign policy.
The official indicated that there was still much convergence with the US--or as I would put it, Trump/Hegseth haven't messed up the relationship yet. But the Philippines are not satisfied with just the one ally--they are working hard to get other partners (if not allies): Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Indonesia, etc.
One thing that was mentioned yesterday and came back: Carney's Davos speech resonated. That the middle powers need to work together.
We then went to the military's hq. I was most struck by how the command staff was entirely army--the only Navy folks who spoke were captains, not admirals. The assessment of the situation with China in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea is pretty dire. That China is steadily increasing the pace of its confronations.
How are the Philippines avoiding escalation? "Maximum tolerance"--not responding to China's escalations with increased escalation, but documenting China's moves and relying on international law. That the International Court sided with the Philippines over China's island building is a huge deal.
One of the things Canada brings to the Philippines is expertise in HADR--Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief. While the Filiponos have a heap of experience in disaster relief as the most disaster prone country in the world, Canada's logistical expertise is super helpful. I later pointed out to the Canadian mil folks that despite the CAF wanting to get out of the disaster relief business, it has positive impacts not just on Canadians but on Canada's international relations.
I asked about asymmetric war and lessons from Ukraine, as the Philippines are far weaker than China, so they need to figure out weapons/strategies of the weak (my implied question--what if the Americans don't show up or are late).* The answer was: the Ukrainians are already giving us help! And they are also watching Iran for lessons on how to make things difficult for stronger navies in narrow waterways (they didn't put it quite like that). Part of the answer is drone, counter-drone, anti-aircraft/missile.
Overall, a very fascinating day, putting much of yesterday's stuff into context. Tomorrow and Sunday are tourism before one more day of briefings with a focus on navy stuff--meeting Canadian sailors from a visiting ship and with Philippines Coast Guard folks.
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