- We cannot rely on the Germans, the Italians or the French? Really? Well, aside from the French, well, yeah, of course. I have already argued that having the Italians and the Germans be among the first contributors to the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) is quite problematic.
- Other publics are more NATO supportive: US, Canada (not entirely sure how the PM feels, but as long as there are diasporic votes in it), UK (with what military, given the deep, thoughtless cuts?), Poland (of course), and Spain (maybe this might mean less caveats).
- Seems like German reunification comes at a cost as much of the opposition comes from East Germany. Verrrrry interesting.*
- Putin's stances continue to play well among Russians even as the costs rise. Well, sanctions are not an instant fix. But the moves to hide the costs (banning reporting of the Russians killed in this adventure) suggests some vulnerability. Still, I don't expect Putin to make real peace in Ukraine.
- Which raises a question related to the "how implausible can plausible deniability be and still be useful"--how many violations of a ceasefire agreement can happen and still consider the agreement to be operative.
* About the oldest pop culture reference I could make here.
UPDATE: See Dan Nexon's post on the limitations of the survey
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