Monday, November 2, 2020

Predicting the Senate: Now We Are Gambling!

 I am very certain that Trump will lose and that Biden will win.  I am a bit less certain about the Senate outcome.  I am pretty positive the Dems will get a majority, but am not nearly as confident.  Of course, as my sister would say, I was wrong four years ago (but I wasn't 2 years ago).

So, here's my Senate map and then some explanations/rationalizations:

Click the map to create your own at

Much of this is obvious and clear.  My big swings are Montana, Georgia, and South Carolina.  Michigan is supposed to be questionable, but I think Peters has enough of a lead.  Same with Cunningham where his sexting scandal is overwhelmed by how awful Tillis has been in a state that is becoming increasingly blue.  I do think that Biden will have coattails as Dem turnout is going to be high across the board, and, as people have always said, the Dems win when they turnout.  Plus the GOp has done its best to govern poorly and alienate people by not passing pandemic relief, by approving awful justices and other officials, and by being incumbents during a deep economic downturn (3rd quarter only recovered part of the losses of the 2nd, and 4th quarter is not looking great).

 So, I have not been following Montana, but I am coding that as Biden-tails thing.  Regarding Georgia, Ossoff and Warnock may not win now.  I am betting that Ossoff actually does since there is much less vote-splitting and he crushed Perdue on the recent debates.  Bigtime turnout in Georgia is a bad portent for Perdue.  Re SC, well, there is a chance for GOP folks to split their vote, so I am wagering on that.  Harrison has run a great campaign, and Graham is just so thoroughly detestable.  What a parasite he has turned out to be, glomming onto anyone who is more powerful.  

So, that's my guess: 54 Blues/indies!   

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