Thursday, July 30, 2020

There Will Be An Election And There Will Be Violence

Trump's tweet has gotten everyone enraged and engaged--"hey, how about we postpone the election?"  Sure, it might be distraction sauce on a day where the economic toll of mishandling the pandemic was made clear, record-breakingly clear. 

The good news is that the President does not have the power to postpone an election--those dates are set by Congress, and elections are administered by states.  To change the election date would require a vote by Congress, and, guess what, one of the houses of Congress is controlled by the Democrats.  So, here is where veto-player theory comes in.... change is really hard so the status quo will remain.*

Of course, Republican-dominated states can choose not to have elections, which would mean what?  That the House and Senate become Democratic by default?  Well, who becomes President if there is no presidential election?  The Speaker of the House.  Ooops.  Now, it might not be Pelosi, as the Dems could pick another Speaker, but, yeah, this might just be why both McConnell and McCarthy (House Republican Leader) both shot down Trump's tweet immediately, unlike damn near most of his tweets.

So, no, there will be an election in November.  It will be utterly tainted because Trump wants it that way, and he will do what he can to limit mail-in ballots.  The irony of his efforts is that the more he makes the election itself an issue, the less complacent the Democratic voters will be AND the more legitimacy he gives to those who say that the Democracy itself is up for grabs in this election.

The urgency to have a landslide has increased due to this tweet and the other efforts to delegitimate the election.  The only real question now is whether the mobilization will offset the voter suppression.  The fed goons in Portland, now expanding to the rest of the country, may play a large role in who turns out and who is deterred.  So, I still worry about Biden winning--not because he won't have the support of the majority of voters--but because the election might be a farce.

All I can say for certain is that there will be violence.  There already has been, and, yes, when the DHS thugs beat voters in the fall, that will count as violence, too.  I am much more certain that Trump's basest base will engage in violence whenever Trump leaves the White House--whether it is by sickness, by being voted out, by being dragged out, whatever.  They will be violent.  And we will just have to get through that and then do the necessary stuff.  Obama indicated at the Lewis memorial some of the list--ending the filibuster, admitting DC and Puerto Rico as states, passing the Voting Rights Act, etc.  All this will do much to erode GOP power and hopefully give Biden the guts to do what is necessary--disband ICE, dramatically reform Customs/Border, disband DHS, and hold accountable those who engaged in criminal activity from Trump down to the "I was just following orders" assholes on the streets.

30-40% of American is going to be most upset, but they will have to lose badly to be taught that their way is unacceptable.  That Trump's way is unacceptable  It is going to be damned ugly, but as Obama reminded us in the eulogy, justice requires perseverance.

* That's really all I know for sure.  The rest is kind of speculative...\

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