I went to see the new Captain America movie last night in Berlin. It is the Berlin movie festival, but, nope, this movie was not part of it. The last Marvel movie that had this much international relations was probably Captain America: Civil War [unless one counts Black Panther 2 which had some truly dumb alliance politics] since the focus was on the UN facilitating the Sokovia Accords (another genius move by Thaddeus Ross), so I wanted to apply a bit of ye olde IR analysis to it.
Before I get to it, just a few notes on seeing the movie here:
- 3D glasses are a Euro, and I had to ask people to find out where they were--not intuitive at all.
- the audience was super patient--even more ads than in a North American theater (including one for Bundeswehr recruitment!), AND it was a lot of credits to get to the post-credit stinger, which was meh.
- they apparently don't clean between screenings and the previous folks were messy.
Applying my 30 plus years of IR scholarship after the break so that I don't spoil the movie:
First, this movie clearly takes place in a universe where there is no Trump 2.0, as the US still has a Navy and is still a big player in the world.
Second, I am not sure China exists in this universe. It is not mentioned at all despite the fact the plot focuses on treaty negotiations over a rare non-earth or intra-earth metal--the key countries are US, Japan, India, and ..... France? Given that the metals are in the celestial cadaver from the Eternals movie is in the Indian Ocean, one would think that China would be a major player. Of course, the absence of China has less to do with fictional international conflict stuff and much more to do with non-fictional international political economy--this is Disney's way of avoiding offending the super sensitive Chinese government. Indeed, with the US and Japan shooting at each other, China has got to be thrilled.
Third, France? Really? I could imagine consulting the EU as this conflict is about the division of a scarce mineral--adamantium (which is the metal that is not just part of Wolverine's claws but his entire skeleton), but I have no idea why the French would be relevant but not the British or Germans.
Fourth, um, Russia? Not mentioned once. Marvel isn't afraid of offending Russia given Black Widow and Thunderbolts. Maybe in this universe, Ukraine sank all of Russia's fleets, not just the one based on the Black Sea?
Fifth, Where was India during the US-Japan tiff? The Modi-like Indian Prime
Minister plays a strong role in the first part of the movie as they are
bargaining and then in the aftermath of the attack at the White House,
but then India is not mentioned at all during the US-Japan crisis
despite the fact that the crisis is playing out in the Indian Ocean.
Ok, on to the international relations. That there is an effort to negotiate over something in international waters that is highly desired by many is not surprising--we have international treaties about Antarctica, Space, and, yes, the oceans. It is actually realistic that there would be an effort to come up with a treaty and that it would be hard.
In the past, it would have been realistic that the US would be the country that would lead the negotiations and try to buy off opposition. Hegemonic stability theory is all about how a single more powerful player can encourage cooperation. Not so clear the US has the ability to do that anymore given the alternating series of unilateral presidents it has had--Bush and Trump. So, again, probably a Trump-less universe, and, yeah, I might prefer to be there, blip and all.
One of the throwaway lines does point to a traditional American strength. President Harrison Ford/Thaddeus Ross mentions that it was hard enough to get Congress's support. That he was able to get Congress agree to some form of fast track authority to negotiate this deal is impressive, but a President does have more heft in their first 100 day. AND one of the key levers the US has always had in bargaining with other countries is that the President can always say that the deal has to be closer to American preferences in order to be ratified (2 level games and all that). Note that this entire talk of a Celestial Island treaty is about a treaty and not an executive agreement, which is not nearly as binding.
The big question, once we forget that China exists only in some Marvel movies, is would Japan and the US nearly come to war over a mineral dispute in waters that are not near either country? No, probably not. Sure, adamanantium is unlike uranium in that there is only one place the former exists, and does seem to be a bit of game changer, but what is the rush to send ships? What will the ships be doing? Even if one country sticks a flag on a hunk of the island, that does not present a fait accompli that can't be reversed through more bargaining. There is no realistic basis for the escalation to violence between allies even if there is some sketchy intelligence that some of Japan's stuff was stolen by actors linked to the CIA. There has to have been much damage to US-Japan relations before the movie starts for us to get to this hair trigger. Even with that, this escalation is not about one action leading to greater costs of acting slowly or acting second. Schelling would be confused. I certainly was.
Captain America as peacemaker? He played a major role in de-escalating the crisis by bringing down the rogue American planes and preventing the ships of either side from being significantly damaged. Third party interveners can provide reassurance, and Cap's (and the new Falcon's) did help those who wanted to avoid war to step down.
I didn't leave the movie angry at its international relations--not like I did after Black Panther 2. The movie itself was fine but not great. It is probably fourth of the four Cap movies even though Civil War was annoying in some ways, it had that amazing airport intra-Avengers fight. But the worst Cap movie is better than the average Thor movie, Dr. Strange movie, or, alas, Ant-Man movie. That it had to hang a bunch of stuff on a Hulk movie from long ago that was really pre-MCU and on an Elementals movie that was most forgettable was not a good starting point. But this Cap is engaging and heroic and fun, and I love a movie with lots of frisbee action.
Oh, and Harrison Ford was fun in a bad guy role.
Congress
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