Thursday, June 16, 2016

Trumpsters: Insane or Not Insane?

Today, Trump fans were asked about his theory about Obama's secret ISIS membership:

There are two ways to read these findings:
Wow! That seems like a lot! Trump fans are crazy!!
Trump's ravings play to only a minority of his supporters!  This is so batshit crazy that even most folks who are likely to vote for Trump can't buy it.
My basic take is that since Trump voters are something like 40% of the population, and only 40% of them find this to be either believable or uncertain, what this survey really says is that something like 10-20% of the American population buys this crap.  And, guess what, most surveys will find that a decent sized minority--10-20%--buy into crazy and/or ignorant beliefs.

This ain't great, but it is not surprising.  More relevant for now: a large chunk of Trump voters are not impressed by his recent messaging.  Trump blew his one month lead--he had no competition in his own party and HRC was still fighting Sanders, and yet he finds himself falling behind.  This is good news.  Trump resorting to this conspiracy stuff will certainly play with some portion of those who would vote for him, but it does not expand his support.  Indeed, polls show it has the opposite impact--because 60% of his fans don't buy it.  And higher %'s of independents and leaners and undecided.

So, this crazy glass is not half full, and that is something we can be optimistic about.

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