I am here in DC at the NATO Summit Public Forum (used to be expert forum, but I guess that was too elite?), and it is hot. Hot as in DC heat and humidity and in terms of the "action" such as it can be at one of these things. Like Warsaw in 2016 and Brussels in 2019, the leaders meet in one place and we academics, think tankers, policy advocates, and other NATO nerds (a term used by many including the US Secretary of State) meet close by. In my prior two experiences, we met in tents in parking lots. This time, we meet in the conference space of a major DC hotel, next to the convention center where the summit is happening. They grab leaders and their staffers and bring them over to have short sessions--friendly roundtable Q&a, speeches, panels.
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For the first few panels, SRO
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This year is different not just in our better accommodations (the tents were fine, very blue, but hotel conference facility is better) and more intense security (lots of secret service folks, their dogs, lots of fencing), but also it is higher level. In the past, we got the 3rd string Americans, 2nd string West Europeans, and so forth. This time, our first several sessions featured the US Secretary of State, Secretary of Defence, SACEUR (US general that is the head of NATO), and the outgoing SecGen. Many of the other sessions featured Prime Ministers and Presidents from much of Europe (although no Germans, French, or Italians of note).
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| SecState |
Of the first batch of folks, the most interesting to me was General Cavoli--SACEUR. Blinken, SecState, was dynamic and engaging but was such a cheerleader for NATO, he really didn't say much that made me think except now NATO has 1 billion people. Really? Oh, and the big news--that the F-16s the Dutch and Danes pledged to send to Ukraine are on their way and they will be flying this summer. Since it is July, that means soon. He mostly dodged the "Hungary sucks, what to do about it" question that Heather Conley, head of German Marshall Fund, asked.
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General Cavoli
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Cavoli was next, and he was asked about readiness and ability to defend against Russia, and he felt pretty good about that. Most interesting to me, he was asked about his authorities--could he act without getting permission from the North Atlantic Council, NATO's decision-making body. Yes, up to yellow, but not red. Hmmmm. He is definitely working on improving NATO readiness but kept referring to how much is up to each member nation. I appreciated the argument that given how the Russians treated the people in the territories they occupied, NATO must defend every inch of allied territory.
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outgoing SecGen
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Austin didn't make much of an impression since he just read a speech. Stolenberg was quite clear about stuff, specifying the new NATO command in Poland aimed at coordinating the support for Ukraine and preparing Ukraine for membership. The continued language regarding the latter is that membership was a well-lit, short bridge. No, Ukraine, you are not going to be a member until the war stops, as we don't want to invoke Article V and be at war with Russia. Much focus by the SecGen and others on China's support of Russia--that China needs pay a price for prolonging the war.
The next panel featured a number of PMs and Presidents from Eastern Europe. Most striking was how the Estonian president was quite clear--there is no such thing as an attack on Estonia as any strike in its direction is an attack on NATO. The whole "an attack on one is an attack on all" was repeated a lot, maybe aimed at Trump? Denmark gave all of its artillery to Ukraine since it would be better used there. Maybe they will do the same with air defense. That panel also had Senator Risch, a Republican who denied that things would be that different under Trump.
In a subsequent panel, the most interesting speaker was the new British State Secretary of Defence, who started right after the election. He immediately went to Ukraine to assure them that the Brits would maintain their support. That NATO is the highest priority for the UK in its defence planning. The Latvian MinDef said that they have been attacked by Russia for decades, that it is not so much about Putin's Russia, but Russia's Putin--that it is not the regime but the country we have to worry about. Ben Hodges, the retired US general, reminded me why retired generals should mostly fade away, as he blasted Biden for delays in support for Ukraine when a) the 8 month delay was due to Republicans, and b) it is legit to worry about what escalation might do. Easy to say now that the increases in support for Ukraine didn't lead to war with Russia. I am guessing he was one of the no fly zone advocates that wanted Americans killing Russians. A major theme--the defense of the UK or another European country starts with Ukraine.
The Nordic panel was fun not just because I have just been to Finland and Sweden, but because the Canadian MinDef, Bill Blair, was on it. It was my first time being at one of his appearances. He did fine, and made news: that despite my hate for the 2% nagging and standard--that Canada was one of the most visibile "laggards" in spending enough on defense--it mattered as Canada is announcing a plan today to get to 2%. Of course, this is late as NATO is going to raise the bar, but still this is significant. Of course, the questions are: how and really? How involves at least subs and the really .... is yet to be addressed. Blair also used his time to blast China for undermining public institutions and election interference.
The Spanish PM had a Q&A, and it was the first time Gaza really came up. He talked about Spain recognizing Palestine, and that if we want to defend Ukraine in part because of the need to defend the rules based order, we need to support that same order elsewhere. Wow and indeed.
Over the course of the day, I got to chat with all kinds of folks, including NATO nerds I had met at previous summits, new folks from all over the place, and the outgoing Canadian Chief of Defence Staff who retires next week. The day ended with a nice, but very crowded reception at the French ambassador's residence, as one of the hosts of the public forum is the NATO SACT--the unit responsible for "transformation" and usually led by a French admiral or general. The good was good, a speech by an astronaut was great (she really does not like gravity), and more chatting with sharp people.
I will write another post focusing on the second day (today) probably tomorrow.
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