What should we do about this bullshit? And, yes, there will be much profanity because all of this is so unnecessary, all of this is bullshit, and it is going to lead to a lot of folks wasting time, energy, and, yes, blog posts.
On the one hand, an invasion and annexation are unlikely. On the other, I have no doubt that Trump is going to try to extort Canada. Why is he so miffed at this friendly neighbor? Because Trump is a greedy narcissist who is increasingly losing his shit. This didn't come up last time, but last time, he was not as demented and he was not as immune.
First, a clarification: as a dual citizen, I feel doubly angry about this. As someone born in the US, I feel betrayed by pretty much everything Trump does, but this in particular as the US and Canada have had a pretty great relationship for quite some time, and it is shameful that the US would now use its power to coerce its friendly neighbor. Indeed, this is fucking embarrassing to be led by such an asshole. As a Canadian, well, there is nothing we did to deserve this treatment. Being bullied sucks, being bullied by a supposed friend sucks worse. Canadians are not going to line up and support any politician who would go along with this. Indeed, this is going to be a big test of the right wing politicians and media outlets--if they try to go along with this, it might just prevent the widely expected Conservative landslide victory in the spring.
Ok, as an international relations scholar, this situation is both normal and abnormal. Going back all the way, yes, the strong do what they want, the weak do what they must, and the power asymmetry here means the US can bully around Canada. However, the economic interdependence folks will have a point here--any real trade war or worse here will hurt the US. Trump complains about the trade deficit--what is America buying from Canada? Oil and electricity. Canada can turn the lights off in the northern US. In winter? Yeah. As Kelly Greenhill has taught us (among others), weaker states can be imaginative in how they can hurt stronger states.
This raises a key question: what is the domestic constituency in the US for coercing Canada? Is this what people voted for in November? Is this what the tech broligarchs want? This bluster has no real force behind it in the sense that there are no audiences clamoring for it other than Elon Musk. This is just a stray idea that Trump has become obsessed with, so most of our theories of international relations can't really apply. This isn't about the security interests of the US, this isn't about the economic welfare of the country. Indeed, this is a great exemplification of the reality of a Trump Presidency--it is never, ever about the national interest. It is about Trump's own fixations, resentments, and grift.
As a civil-military relations scholar, of course, I am most curious--is this the thing that would cause a mutiny. Not a coup, I am not saying the military would overthrow Trump. But would the military follow orders to invade or bomb Canada? Note that he is only talking about economic coercion, so maybe somewhere in the recesses of his broken mind, he understands that would be an Ambassador Bridge too far. He speaks only of economic coercion.
Anyhow, we are outraged. The question is do we take this literally, seriously, or both? Because it is now a daily thing with Trump, we can't ignore it. That sets him apart from the crazed relative you can block on facebook or refuse to invite to Thanksgiving. People are worried that Canada currently has a prorogued Parliament (which means it won't sit until March), but I am less fussed about that. The Prime Minister, yes, Justin Trudeau, until he gets replaced by his part, can act without any acts by Parliament. So, if Trump wants a trade war on January 20th, Canada can respond immediately. So, yes, we need to take this seriously if not literally.
The big question really is what is the token carrot that Trump can take home and declare that he won this battle of North America? A bit more spending on the border? Trudeau apologizing for making jokes about Trump at NATO meetings? Damned if I know. But it is all about Trump's ego at this point. There is no real policy substance to this--there is no real grievance that warrants this hostility.
So, I guess I am asking Canadians not to panic but to get ready for some real inflation, just as the Americans will be paying for this trade war with a jump in oil prices and electricity bills and the rest. And, yes, Canadians should mock Trump as much as they can.
PS No, this would not count as irredentism as there is no lost ethnic kin, no lost territory in the American imagination. People can try to make it so, but it ain't.
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