Regrets, I Have A Few

 Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally announced he was stepping down.  In that process, he indicated a regret, and I had a quick take on it:

If I were Trudeau, my biggest regrets would be: 1) not finding a way to undermine or at least challenge the premiers who are doing so much to fuck up Canada--the health care system, the educational system, transit, etc. 2) there is no #2 that comes close

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— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman.bsky.social) January 6, 2025 at 11:26 AM

One of two times I was in the proximity of PMJT

Seriously though, looking back at nearly ten years in office, we can think about what Trudeau did well, what he did poorly, and what opportunities he missed.  To be clear, I am neither a Trudeau lover or hater.  He wasn't bad, he blew some opportunities, but he was probably above the replacement level PM.  And, yes, his value above replacement PM (VARPM) declined over time.  And, no, I am not an expert on  Canadian politics, Canadian public policy, or the history of Canadian PM's.  But I do have lots of opinions and this blog is, of course, by definition half-baked.*

So, what did he do well?

1. Child tax benefit--a lot of kids were elevated out of poverty.  That is huge and underrated.
2. He protected Canada from Trump during the first administration--that was no easy task and required a sustained, well-organized effort.  That same kind of effort paid off with the next crisis
3. Canada did pretty well compared to other democracies during the pandemic.  Canadians didn't have to line up at food banks, and the death rate was far lower than its neighbor's.   People mostly vaccinated, at least the first time.  
4. This will contradict one of the regrets but the agreement (I'd say coalition but that is a curse word up here) with the NDP led to dental and pharma policies that help fulfill some of the promises of the, um, overrated national health care system (of course, much of the blame for the decline of that system is in the provinces's hands).
   

What bedeviled Trudeau?

1. Awful leadership at the provincial level across damn near most of the country.  They subverted the pandemic effort.  They took billions of pandemic relief money and didn't spend it on ventilation or testing but on tax cuts.  The far right wing protests that punished Ottawa and elsewhere were mostly a provincial responsibility, so the emergency Trudeau invoked was less about the provinces not being able to handle the problem but not willing to do so.  
2. His arrogance.  Most of the scandals and most of the alienation of his own party was the product of Trudeau's own sense of himself.  The scandals were so incredibly .... dumb.  How does one handle the most corrupt company in Canada as it is going through judicial proceedings?  Stay the fuck away.  
3. The Mideast.  He waffled a great deal in the face of a difficult situation, but he could have stood by the international institutions that have been challenging Israel's war crimes.
4. Pipeline politics--Canada is really a strange country as it has a diverse economy, but oil plays such a dominant role.  So, the country can't make much progress on climate change, and it impedes reconciliation with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. 
    

  What did he overpromise and underdeliver?

1. Electoral reform.  This really pissed off those who crossed over from the left.  He could have imposed a system since he had a majority, but having a thin majority (the joy of first past the post turning minorities into majorities) does not really give one much legitimacy to make massive changes to the rules.  I really don't blame him for not making much progress here, as the rules would have been seen as very self-serving.  However, it might have kept the Conservatives from moving too far to the right or punishing them for such moves, so, yeah, not great.
2. UN stuff.  No, Canada was not back at peacekeeping.  One temporary minimal mission didn't make Canada back, and refusing to extend a bit undermined whatever political capital that was gained.  UN Security Council?  Talk about arrogance--Canada was way late to the process and underprepared.  Trudeau should have waited for a different competition.  Oh, and he should have cleaned up Canada's record not just on peacekeeping but aid money.   
3. Reconciliation.  Lots of words, some action (fewer Indigenous communities have water advisories), unmet expectations. 
   

 What are the biggest unforced errors, other than the scandals?

1. Oh my, the India trip.  Pandering to Sihks and dressing up as a bollywood dancer was not great. Canadian-Indian relations were going to suck anyway because a Hindu nationalist party was never going to get along with a country that gave Sikh Canadians prominent positions.
2. Keeping a truly awful Defence Minister around because he was politically important.  Whatever tatters Trudeau had in terms of being a feminist prime minister, favoring some votes and some campaign contributions while keeping a Defence Minister who failed to get rid of one chief of defence staff who engaged in sexual misconduct and abuse of power and who then replaced that guy with another who lasted a month ended any seriousness of Trudeau is a 21st century politician.
3. On the defence file, which is where I have read/heard about the most, the delaying of the defence review and undercommitting to 2% meant that the eventual move got no credit. 

Biggest regrets?

1. The obvious one: lasting too damned long.  He could have left after the 2021 election (which was called at the wrong time), after the pandemic ebbed, declaring victory over the disease and getting the country through the crisis. What did he accomplish over the past four years besides antagonizing many folks who are tired?  He ended up burning out a bunch of good Liberal politicians while perpetuating his rule. The party is now poorly prepared for the next election.
   
2.  The move to cut the federal budget because the Conservatives argued that the spending caused inflation.  No, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic caused inflation.  Canada had perhaps the second best economic recovery--inflation is down even if prices have not been reduced to the levels before the pandemic (that would require a nasty recession).  Instead, Trudeau decided to fight on the Conservatives' turf and cut spending, which then hurt the military and the rest of government.  Focusing on delivering good government rather than on Conservative priorities would have been the right stance.  As Harris's loss indicates, incumbents were going to wear inflation no matter how well they performed, so one might as well stay true to oneself.
3. Which leads to the housing crisis.  Again, mostly a provincial problem, but Trudeau allowed it to foster xenophobia--that it was runaway immigration that did, and the way to handle that was to limit student visas?  While the problems of most universities in Canada can be put at the feet of their provincial leaders, the increased dependence on foreign students meant that federal policies on visas have much bigger impacts.  So, this may not be Trudeau's biggest regret, but it may be mine.  

Overall, the Liberals of the past ten years did ok.  Their corruption scandals were modest, their impact on the lives of Canadians were most positive and in some cases very positive.  The Liberals overplayed their hand internationally while accomplishing the most important goal--defending against Trump 1.0.  

Trudeau is not the hero that his fans think he is, but he is also far from the villain that the haters have portrayed him to be.  Ultimately, Trudeau was a pretty good disappointment.   

 

*  I will absolutely miss the Trudeau Administration as I had the best access to those in and near government in my career.  I got an early look at the 2015 Liberal Defence Platform as I trashed an early effort--which led to an ongoing acquaintanceship with a top operative.  I had a mostly twitter friendship with someone who became a Minister, which led to some interesting conversations, including at a party last month in the aftermath of Freeland's departure. I interacted with a defence minister who sought out those who had some civ-mil expertise, which led to her appearing in my class twice and on our podcast. So, yeah, I will miss this government even if I was not really part of a Liberal conspiracy to cancel a retired general.