Wednesday, June 8, 2016

VP Guessing Games

I am really confused by the Washington Post's super cool infographics heavy take on who HRC will pick to be her running mate.  Why?  Because there are so many folks included who are just not serious candidates:
  • Joe Biden is not VPing for another 4-8 years.  HRC can get him to campaign since he is a party guy.  Because his pal, Bo, will be doing the same thing.
  • Andrew Cuomo?  Aside from not needing New Yorkers (a recurring theme here), Cuomo would best be described as embattled.
  • Michael Bloomberg?  Really?  Again, New York?  A billionaire to fight a billionaire?  No thanks.
  • Kristen Gillibrand?  A NY Senator?  Isn't there already one of those on the ticket?
  • Terry McAuliffe?  This would be just to troll the diehard HRC haters, but speaking of embattled governors.
  • Jeanne Shaheen? NH is just not that important of a state, despite its quadrennial effort to make itself relevant.
  • Bill De Blasio?  FFS, what is it with the NY fixation.  
  • Martin O'Malley? Um, he proved what during the campaign?  That he is a lousy campaigner.
  • Bernie Sanders?  Didn't he prove he is a lousy team player?
  • Janet Napolitano?  Homeland Security is the most messed up part of the government bureaucracy, and University of California has, um, had some problems lately.
I think Elizabeth Warren is going to be an asset where she is and can more powerfully shape policy in the Senate than as VP.  Kamala Harris is probably going to be the Senator from California, so let's give her some time doing that before she is VP.  Al Franken?  For shits and giggles and for absolutely having a great ability troll the hell out of Trump, this would be a fun choice.  Sort of a caustic Biden.  But I think HRC will need to get someone who is not associated with Live from New York....  Evan Bayh?  Has he been relevant in the 2010's?

If I had to bet, I would bet on an Hispanic as this would just give Trump all kinds of fits and help ensure the Hispanics would turnout.  I don't know enough about any of the ones listed in the article although I like Tom Perez from his appearance on Keeping It 1600.  Julian Castro would be interesting as it would be fun to see the GOP have to dedicate resources to keep Texas, but Texas is not yet ready to swing, so that might be a stretch.

I know I will be wrong, but I will not be as wrong as half of this list.


L'il Steve said...

Don't forget Tim Kaine!

Anonymous said...

Al Franken would've been perfect if he had some other professional work, aside than comedy, before he entered the political arena. I can only see Warren getting the VP nod if Clinton has unexpected trouble winning over Sanders supporters. Sherrod Brown has been mentioned frequently, but like many sitting Senators a Republican is his state's governor, so the Dems risk losing a seat. Both Tom Perez and Julian Castro's flaws are a lack of electoral experience, unfortunately.

The #1 rule of balancing the ticket is "Do no harm." Given some of the attitudes about feminism still prevalent in the United States, she'll likely pick a man rather than two women. Then you have the age factor; HRC will be one of the oldest POTUSes at a hypothetical inauguration and she'd probably want a steady hand at the wheel if something goes wrong with her health. Keep watching Tim Kaine: basically Joe Biden with none of the baggage, as well as being a Spanish speaker.

Steve Saideman said...

Ah, Steve, Tim Kaine is definitely in play but also, um, easy to forget.

The age thing is big--HRC is older so she needs someone younger even if they are not particularly hip with the kids (and, of course, trying to be hip is the best way not to be).

Anonymous said...

One unanticipated factor in the primaries was how age became a non-issue. HRC is 68, Trump is 69, and Sanders is *74*, which would have made him the oldest President if he went all the way. Given that average life expectancy keeps rising in the US, it's not a surprise this happened, but given the nature of the job it remains a BFD (see McCain 2008). It's how we perceive age: Warren is 66 but she doesn't look it.