Monday, May 22, 2017

Latest Odds with Some Additions

Thanks to joking about proposition bets about Trump, I now get regular updates from a sportsbetting site.  The latest:

  • Trump serves full term?
    • Yes is -200 (1/2, 66.67% implied probability)
  • Trump impeached during first term? 
    • No: -250 (2/5, 71.43% implied probability)
    • Yes: +210 (21/10, 32.26% implied probability)
  • Next Trump appointee fired/to leave job?
    • Sean Spicer: +300 (3/1, 25% implied probability)
    • H.R. McMaster: +450 (9/2, 18.18% implied probability)
    • Steve Bannon: +650 (13/2, 13.33% implied probability)
  • Next Supreme Court nominee? 
    • Thomas Hardiman is currently favored at +300 (3/1, 25% implied probability)
  • Next Senate Confirmed FBI Director? 
    • Joe Lieberman: +250 (5/2, 28.57% implied probability)
    • Richard McFeely: +450 (9/2, 18.18% implied probability)
    • Mike Rogers: +650 (13/2, 13.33% implied probability)
  • Will James Comey testify before Congress by 11:59 PM EDT on June 30, 2017? 
    • Yes: +250 (5/2, 28.57% implied probability)
    • No: -300 (1/3, 75% implied probability)
  Handy footnote:

Note: Not familiar with the betting lingo? A negative number (generally representing the "Favorite") = how much you have to bet to profit $100. A positive number = how much you profit if you bet $

Which would I bet?  The best one here is Comey testifying before the end of June. That seems pretty close to a lock.  The other bets at the website have slightly longer odds for Susan Rice testifying by the end of June and then longer still for Obama by the end of the year. I would pound the No on that last one--would have to bet $600 to win $100.

 If they had the acting FBI head, I'd consider that.  Inertia is a powerful force, especially since McFeely has dropped out.  Against a longer list, the odds of Field (none of the above) getting to be FBI director is +450, which is not bad at all.  

I'd be tempted to bet McMaster simply because he has better odds than Spicey, althouh Spicey has the honor of most non-Trump bets--lots of possibilities for Spicey.  Spicey/McM odds -250/+210, Spicey/Bannon -350/+300, meaning that Spicey is favored to get ousted before either but McM is seen as more likely to be ousted than Bannon.  The longer list has NIkki Haley as second least likely to be ousted next after Pence.  I'd bet on Sessions just because he is the most dangerous and want him to go more than anyone.  Of course, that kind of betting strategy leads to bankruptcy.

There are other propositions at the website, with the odds changing from No +400 that Trump is President at the end of September dropping to -150 by Jan 2021, suggesting that he will not finish his term, but soon, not so much. The odds of resigning are +250 for yes, -300 for no.

Too bad there is no bet on:

  • Next strange object Trump holds with foreign leaders.
  • Which country's history Tillerson gets wrong?  Not on the board since "next one" would get all of the money.
  • How many meetings does Trump miss due to a lack of stamina?  I'd bet the over as long as the over/under line was set at seven or less for this trip.  
  • Hard to measure, but which meeting goes the worst?   I would bet on NATO simply because it is towards the end and requires maximum patience.  
  • TeamStroke.  Nor any 25th Amendment shenanigans.
One thing to keep in mind: the odds are set not just on the likelihood of the outcome but which way the money is going.  As people bet on one side, the casino changes the odds to get folks to bet the other side.  So, when one thinks of these odds, it is not just what is likely but what people beyond the casino see as likely and, in these cases, perhaps want to happen.

If I were Trump, I would put lots of my money on these bets and then make them happen.  Why? Because Trump is greedy and corrupt so firing Nikki Haley would make big bank.  

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