Place Your Bets, Canadian Edition

As I have noted before, I get emails from random betting ventures about the odds of various things.  The latest one is from Bodog with a strange starting point:  When will the next election be held?  The expected date is October 21st.  Canada passed legislation a while back that would make the elections more predictable--every four years--rather than being called when the Prime Minister feels like it--on the third Monday of October.  However, the PM can still call an election early anyway.But there is no reason to call it now.  If they had to do it all over again, they would have called one last summer, pre SNC-Lavalin scandal.

More recently, this date has become somewhat controversial because it is the same date as a Jewish holiday.  Rosh Hashanah?  Nope.  Yom Kippur?  Nope.  Shavout?  Nope. Shemini Atzeret.  Huh??  Sure, I am a lousy Jew (my education stopped at 13, and I don't believe), but I never heard of this holiday (its related holiday, Simchat Torah, I have heard of, but never considered to be a very important day).  Ok, so it is respected by Orthodox Jews, who, well, have a whole lot of dates they care about.  I tend not to care what they think because I think fundamentalists fundamentally suck, but putting that aside, it is not clear how large a sect has to be to upset the apple cart or be reasonably accommodated.  For Elections Canada, other dates are problematic for other reasons, and they figure these folks can vote in other ways ahead of time.  And I am fine with that very reasonable accommodation (some might say that I am ok with the ultra-religious being disenfranchised, and, well, um, maybe so). 

Back to the wagering, Bodog has the odds as:
Yes, the election takes place on October 21st, 2019:  -1200 (you have to bet 1200 to win 100), which makes this a big favorite.
No, it does not: +650.  Which means you bet $100 and win $650. 
The status quo is a big, big favorite.

How about the election itself?  This is the fun wager and what people really care about.  Note, people vote for individual candidates in their ridings (districts), not for a particular PM, but the results produce a PM nonetheless.


Justin Trudeau -120
Andrew Scheer -110
Jagmeet Singh +1200
Elizabeth May +10,000
Maxime Bernier +50,000
Yves-Francois Blanchet +90,000


I find this to be a weenie stance by Bodog: two co-favorites--the Liberal Trudeau and the Conservative Scheer.  Duh!  Of course, one of the two will win.  While the third place party surprised last time (that would be Justin Trudeau and the Liberals), given the variety of obstacles Singh and the NDP face (he is, um, a crappy candidate; the NDP's base is in xenophobic Quebec which just passed laws against visible religious symbols and Singh is a Sikh; etc), it really is a two party race with the polls having the Conservatives ahead (thanks to bone-headed Liberal handling of a corrupt company). 

How would I bet?  I would bet on Trudeau and the Liberals.  Is this wishful thinking?  I don't think so.  Is it the same bad judgement that I had in November 2016 that has my sister telling me to stop making predictions?  Of course.  But why would I bet on the Liberals?

• Trudeau, for all of his faults, has charisma that Scheer simply does not have.
• Scheer has not yet demonstrated that he has decent political instincts.
• Scheer faces the temptation to pander to the right as Bernier's xenophobic, racist, Islamophobic party might attract some Trump fans among the Conservative Party.
• Trudeau has been most generous with spending money across Canada, and budget deficits are not going to scare people into voting for the Conservatives.
• Doug Ford may cause some folks to wonder about the Conservative brand--cutting programs for Francophones in Ontario, generally being a bully, etc.  While Canada has a deeper disconnect between provincial and national parties, Doug Ford has a larger presence than most Premiers (governors).  

The big questions:

• Will those NDP voters who voted for Trudeau last time remain alienated due to the broken electoral reform promise?
• How will pipeline politics affect the Liberals?
• Will Trump do or say something that will make the Conservatives to appear to be likely allies/toadies of the US?

The only certainties:

• all parties will pander to the shipbuilding industries on either coast, with the Liberals also making a play for Quebec shipbuilding.
• the ads will mostly suck
• I will be wrong.  This is not just my sister thinking that--I am not a student of Canadian politics.  Other folks are far more expert.  But this is my blog, and I can cry if I want to.
• Folks will raise and dismiss the possibility of coalitions even though they are perfectly legal, and they happen in the Commonwealth countries on a regular basis (UK more common now, NZ always, Aussies often enough).  
• There is much yet to come to shake things up

 How will you bet?

Betting Time? A Recurring Spew Post

I am back on the mailing list of sportsbooks promoting their politics wagers.  This sports book agrees with me--that impeachment is not likely:

Trump to Leave Office via Impeachment	American Odds	Fractional Odds	Implied Probability (%)
No	-200	1/2	66.67%
Yes	+150	3/2	40%

Note the "leave office" part--that when the press mentions Trump getting impeached, it can be confusing--whether the House of Representatives votes to send the impeachment case to the Senate (which has happened a couple of times--Johnson, Clinton) or whether the President loses his office after the Senate votes 2/3s or more to do so (hasn't happened yet).

Still tempted to bet on yes, because it would be delightful.  But nope.

The site also lists odds for who will win the 2020 election.  Trump is the favorite at 3/2 with Kamala Harris at 10 to 1 (4 to 1 to win the Dem nomination) and Bernie at 14 to 1.  The strangest ones?  Ben Shapiro and Orrin Hatch at 20 to 1 to win the GOP nomination?  Oprah at 33 to 1 and the Rock at 50 to 1?  Tulsi Gabbard at 66 to 1?  Who would bet on her?  I mean, she has the same odds as John Kasich and Hillary Clinton....

Overall, the Dems are slight faves to win the 2020 election: -130 (bet $130 to win 100) and the GOP is a slight underdog at +110 (bet $110 to win $100).


Anyhow, interesting to see these lines.  I do wonder about the "next person to leave the Trump Administration" lines.  This site does not have those.  Darn.

I have no idea who will get the Democratic nomination in 2020, and, yeah, I suck at predicting American election outcomes.... All I know is that if Pence is the GOP candidate, the odds will shift because he has, as they used to say, zero charisma. 

Better to Gamble Than Cry?

Time for that semi-regular Semi-Spew post: how to bet in the Age of Trump!  I asked the sportsbetting folks about the latest odds now that Spicey is gone.  So, check out the odds and my take on how to bet below:

Which of these Donald Trump appointees will be the next to leave their current job (fired or resigned)?
Jeff Sessions:+250
Reince Priebus: +450
Steve Bannon: +450
H.R. McMaster: +950
Jared Kushner: +1250
Kellyanne Conway: +1250
Rex Tillerson: +1750
John F. Kelly: +2500
Steven Mnuchin: +2500
Nikki Haley: +5500
James Mattis: +3500
Rick Perry: +3500
Wilbur Ross: +3500
Scott Pruitt: +3500
Alexander Acosta: +4500
Betsy DeVoss: +4500
Ben Carson: +4500
Sonny Perdue: +4500
Elaine Chao: +4500
Tom Price: +4500
Ryan Zinke: +5500
Mike Pence: +7500

Seems pretty clear that, yes, Sessions is the favorite to go next.  Priebus is facing some serious pressure from the Mooch.  I think Bannon's odds are wishful thinking--he has secured himself again after being at risk for a while.  McMaster is probably secure for a while--he can be irrelevant forever... I'd be tempted to bet on Tillerson--he got his tax break and then found out that running State into the ground gets him a lot of unwanted attention.  I don't think there are any long shots beyond Tillerson that make any sense.

So, of all these choices, I would place my bets on Jeff (so frustrated that Trump makes me want him to stay so that Mueller doesn't get fired) and Rex.  So, I'd place $100 on Sessions to win $250 and $100 on Tillerson to win $1750.

There are also bets about impeachment and indictments:
Year that Donald Trump will be impeached
2017: +500
2018: +650
2019: +900
2020: +2500
2021 or later/no impeachment: -450
Strange odds, as I would think the most likely time for it (and thus the lower chance to win would be 2019 with a potentially Democratic Congress). 
I'd bet, however, $450 to win $100 that Trump isn't impeached at all.


Will Michael Flynn be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Will Jared Kushner be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Will Carter Page be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Yes: +700
No: -850
Will Donald Trump Jr. be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Will Paul Manafort be indicted or charged with a crime by 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2017?
Yes: +450
No: -600
Hmmmm, tempted to bet no on all since Trump might try to fire Mueller before any indictments are filed.  If I had to bet, I would bet on Manafort being indicted.  Good odds (4.5 to 1), less likely to roll (he'd be risking his life with Putin).  Flynn?  Likely to roll over.  Kushner?  Probably but not in 2017.  Page?  Oh baby! The risk here is that he rolls over and doesn't get indicted, but he might just tell all the first chance he gets even without a deal--he is that dumb.  Don Jr.?  Ok, why not?  Something to root for!

Anyhow, just some ideas on a wet Ottawa day.

 

Latest Odds with Some Additions

Thanks to joking about proposition bets about Trump, I now get regular updates from a sportsbetting site.  The latest:

• Trump serves full term?
• ​Yes is -200 (1/2, 66.67% implied probability)
• Trump impeached during first term? 
• No: -250 (2/5, 71.43% implied probability)
• Yes: +210 (21/10, 32.26% implied probability)
• Next Trump appointee fired/to leave job?
• Sean Spicer: +300 (3/1, 25% implied probability)
• H.R. McMaster: +450 (9/2, 18.18% implied probability)
• Steve Bannon: +650 (13/2, 13.33% implied probability)
• Next Supreme Court nominee? 
• ​Thomas Hardiman is currently favored at +300 (3/1, 25% implied probability)
• Next Senate Confirmed FBI Director? 
• Joe Lieberman: +250 (5/2, 28.57% implied probability)
• Richard McFeely: +450 (9/2, 18.18% implied probability)
• Mike Rogers: +650 (13/2, 13.33% implied probability)
• Will James Comey testify before Congress by 11:59 PM EDT on June 30, 2017? 
• Yes: +250 (5/2, 28.57% implied probability)
• No: -300 (1/3, 75% implied probability)

  Handy footnote:


Note: Not familiar with the betting lingo? A negative number (generally representing the "Favorite") = how much you have to bet to profit $100. A positive number = how much you profit if you bet $

Which would I bet?  The best one here is Comey testifying before the end of June. That seems pretty close to a lock.  The other bets at the website have slightly longer odds for Susan Rice testifying by the end of June and then longer still for Obama by the end of the year. I would pound the No on that last one--would have to bet $600 to win $100.


 If they had the acting FBI head, I'd consider that.  Inertia is a powerful force, especially since McFeely has dropped out.  Against a longer list, the odds of Field (none of the above) getting to be FBI director is +450, which is not bad at all.  

I'd be tempted to bet McMaster simply because he has better odds than Spicey, althouh Spicey has the honor of most non-Trump bets--lots of possibilities for Spicey.  Spicey/McM odds -250/+210, Spicey/Bannon -350/+300, meaning that Spicey is favored to get ousted before either but McM is seen as more likely to be ousted than Bannon.  The longer list has NIkki Haley as second least likely to be ousted next after Pence.  I'd bet on Sessions just because he is the most dangerous and want him to go more than anyone.  Of course, that kind of betting strategy leads to bankruptcy.

There are other propositions at the website, with the odds changing from No +400 that Trump is President at the end of September dropping to -150 by Jan 2021, suggesting that he will not finish his term, but soon, not so much. The odds of resigning are +250 for yes, -300 for no.

Too bad there is no bet on:

• Next strange object Trump holds with foreign leaders.
• Which country's history Tillerson gets wrong?  Not on the board since "next one" would get all of the money.
• How many meetings does Trump miss due to a lack of stamina?  I'd bet the over as long as the over/under line was set at seven or less for this trip.  
• Hard to measure, but which meeting goes the worst?   I would bet on NATO simply because it is towards the end and requires maximum patience.  
• TeamStroke.  Nor any 25th Amendment shenanigans.

One thing to keep in mind: the odds are set not just on the likelihood of the outcome but which way the money is going.  As people bet on one side, the casino changes the odds to get folks to bet the other side.  So, when one thinks of these odds, it is not just what is likely but what people beyond the casino see as likely and, in these cases, perhaps want to happen.

If I were Trump, I would put lots of my money on these bets and then make them happen.  Why? Because Trump is greedy and corrupt so firing Nikki Haley would make big bank.  

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