Trump is putting his most expensive fantasy into the 51st state bullshit machine. This is quite predictable, even as the US Ambassador to Canada is doing his best to alienate Canadians by portraying the US as a victim in all of this. Why is the Golden Dome a trap for Canada?
To be clear, this is no longer about being pro or anti ballistic missile defense.* Canada didn't join ABM in the early 2000s because George Bush Jr. was violating an international agreement, and Canadian leaders didn't want to be on the side of tearing down the international order. This meant that NORAD became a difficult place, as the binational arrangement meant that Canada was providing sensor data to the Americans but couldn't be in the room where the defense stuff was being planned/operated. The political salience of ABM has declined, and the treaty is now mostly dead. So, it is no longer as much of a constraint on Canadian policy-making, nor does the Canadian public care that much.
But Golden Dome? Oh my. I had been suggesting it was a trap before Trump issued his social media blast that it would cost $61b if Canada didn't become a 51st state. Why is it a trap? Because Golden Dome is incredibly expensive and, yes, it is a fantasy. It won't stop the US or Canada from being devastated in a first strike by China or Russia. It probably won't be able to stop a North Korean attack either, and that has long been the default excuse for missile defense fans when it becomes obvious that their magical thinking hits reality--that a big nuclear power can always get enough nukes through in a first strike.
But the trap really snaps when the US demands that Canada pays its fair share of this incredibly expensive, doomed to fail project. Lo and behold, Trump has randomly decided on $61b as the price tag. Canada has already committed to spending nearly $40b on modernizing its share of NORAD--mostly the sensors that would detect all kinds of attacks coming mostly from across the Arctic. This is over a long time frame. Is the Trump demand of $61b over the long run or a payment up front? Canada and PM Carney can probably convince Trump that their already planned $38b or so is their contribution, that it is new money (Trump can't do math, isn't very aware of anything anyway) aimed at Golden Dome. An additional $20b? Canada could say that it will be increasing the investment in these sensors by 50% in the long run--we are quite accustomed to cost overruns on major defense projects (see the ships). In the long run, Trump will be gone and the promise can be broken.
But if Trump wants Canada to spend fast, to spend $61b now? That is not going to happen. That would crowd out all of the other defense spending, the stuff that is really needed right now to have a functional military. Plus Trump is toxic and Carney came to power by promising to resist Trump. Carney's first statement on this was: we will do what is in our best interests and we will look into this. So, he is not going to realign Canadian defence spending to satisfy Trump.
One more thing: imagine a world where Trump gets his magic shield, do you think Canadians would be sure that Trump would use it to protect Canada? No, not with this 51st state bullshit.
So, the trap has been set--Canada is screwed either way. Comply with Trump and distort the economy and the military spending or refuse to comply and kiss NORAD goodbye. Waiting out Trump and hoping he gets distracted is probably the best bet. That, or just lie to him while assuring Canadians (say it in French) that we won't be complying.
* I try to be consistent and spell it defense when it is about the US, defence when it is about Canada, but when it is US-Canadian defense/defence stuff, I just go wherever my fingers tell me.
No comments:
Post a Comment