Manila Briefings: Defense in A Dangerous Time

 Today, we had a series of high level briefings, and we got a good idea of where the Philippines stands in this part of the world: on the edge of a World War.  Ooops, too dramatic?  The day was mostly based on two sessions--one with senior civilian folks and one with senior military officers.  We then met with some think tank folks, but I was pretty tired and left early.

In the first session with a senior civilian defense official, I asked about their view of the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan and what would the Philippines do.  Re the latter, if things get hot, they can't avoid being involved given how close the Philippines are to Taiwan.  Just as Japan had to attack the Philippines to get to Indonesia (Dutch East Indies at the time) at the start of the Pacific War, China would have to clear its flank when attacking Taiwan.  Plus there are a few hundred thousand Filipinos there which also increases the stakes.  However, this official argued that China will probably not attack--that the war would be very costly and that they can get their way via Taiwan's domestic politics.  But, yes, China is the only country where the legitimacy of the regime hangs on foreign policy.

The official indicated that there was still much convergence with the US--or as I would put it, Trump/Hegseth haven't messed up the relationship yet.  But the Philippines are not satisfied with just the one ally--they are working hard to get other partners (if not allies): Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Indonesia, etc.

One thing that was mentioned yesterday and came back: Carney's Davos speech resonated.  That the middle powers need to work together.  

We then went to the military's hq.  I was most struck by how the command staff was entirely army--the only Navy folks who spoke were captains, not admirals.  The assessment of the situation with China in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea is pretty dire.  That China is steadily increasing the pace of its confronations.

How are the Philippines avoiding escalation?  "Maximum tolerance"--not responding to China's escalations with increased escalation, but documenting China's moves and relying on international law.  That the International Court sided with the Philippines over China's island building is a huge deal.

One of the things Canada brings to the Philippines is expertise in HADR--Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief.  While the Filiponos have a heap of experience in disaster relief as the most disaster prone country in the world, Canada's logistical expertise is super helpful.  I later pointed out to the Canadian mil folks that despite the CAF wanting to get out of the disaster relief business, it has positive impacts not just on Canadians but on Canada's international relations.

I asked about asymmetric war and lessons from Ukraine, as the Philippines are far weaker than China, so they need to figure out weapons/strategies of the weak (my implied question--what if the Americans don't show up or are late).* The answer was: the Ukrainians are already giving us help!  And they are also watching Iran for lessons on how to make things difficult for stronger navies in narrow waterways (they didn't put it quite like that).  Part of the answer is drone, counter-drone, anti-aircraft/missile.  

Overall, a very fascinating day, putting much of yesterday's stuff into context.  Tomorrow and Sunday are tourism before one more day of briefings with a focus on navy stuff--meeting Canadian sailors from a visiting ship and with Philippines Coast Guard folks.

Manila Briefings: Maritime Insecurity

 Today was our first day of briefings in Manila.  Our small team of two DND Public Affairs people, me, and a think tanker joined a group of Colonels/Navy Captains from the Canadian and other armed forces as well as civilians.  That group is from the Canadian Forces College as they run an extensive end-of-the-term trip.  The group hit Japan first and will be going to other places out here after they leave us.

We met with Canadian embassy folks as well as some Filipino officials.  Since the events were under Chatham House Rule, I can't attribute anything, but I will say the ambassador here is super sharp and not just because he has some Philly experience.

First, some basic stuff that is politically important:

• about 1 million Canadians are of Filipino descent, so there are significant ties.  Second largest source of foreign students for Canada
• federal/presidential system based on the American model but with single 6 year terms for the President.  That the entire upper layers of the govt come and go with Presidents is very American.
• Very much family dynastic politics.  President is Ferdinand Marcos Jr, VP is Sarah Duterte, daughter of previous president who was quote autocratic.  And these two dynasties do not like each other.  The next electionin 2028 will be .... interesting.
• seven times more water territory than land mass, 60% live on the coast, 36km of coastline, 25% of world's martime workforce
• most disaster prone country in the world--earthquakes, volcanoes, super typhoons. Oh my.  This has apparently led to some resiliency with whole of society responses when disaster strikes.
• population is about 3x Canada's 

Second, it is a great/sad example of the third order consequences of the Iran war.  The Philippines gets 90% or more of its energy from outside the country, so the oil crisis induced by Trump's war has made a big impact.  Not just making it more expensive to travel, making food hard to grow (fertilizer), etc, but their Navy and Coast Guard can't operate as much.  Which means China has far more latitude to mess around in the region. And Russia is now selling oil here.  So, well done, Donnie. Always the master strategist.  Oh and 2.5 million Filipinos are in harm's way in the Gulf.

Third, the Philippines has become the focal point of Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy.  It has Canada's second largest embassy, mostly because it is the regional hub for various diplomatic admin stuff, but still.  It is now visited 4x a year or so by Canadian naval vessels (given how much stress the navy is under with their very old ships, this is a big deal).  

Fourth, much was made of like-mindedness.  Former colony, speaks English, democracy, trade, open society, both live near unreliable behemoth.  

Fifth, apparently Filipinos consume social media more than any other country, spending 8 hours a day, mostly via facebook--2+ fb accounts per person.  Lots of misinformation/disinformation from China and from the competing parties.

Sixth, Canada is quite visible and appreciated here.  One reason: Canada handed over a system that helps detect "dark vessels."  This is a system for monitoring illegal fishing, but, well, the Filipinos are using it for much better situational awareness of lots of folks in their waters.  A very big deal that was low cost but huge impact.   

Additional observations:

Many senior policy positions are occupied by retired senior military officers (I have no idea what effect this has, but as a civ-mil person, I couldn't help but notice).   It was explained that the military is most meritocratic part of society

The general military stance has shifted from fighting rebellions/terrorist groups (Abu Sayef) to territorial defense--China.  But one person said the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea as they call it here is already lost.

 

More after another day of briefings! 

The Massacre of Manila

I knew that Japan's occupation of the Philippines was brutal, but my education of World War II history tended to be focused on Europe and the Pacific sub campaign.  I got a clearer idea of what happened here in Manila 81 years ago when I was listening to the Unauthorized History of the Pacific War podcast episode on the Liberation of Manila.  So, I was keeping my eyes open for memorials of that horrific event and just happened to walk by one that, well, shook me quite a bit.

First the history: In February of 1945, the Americans and the Filipino allies (guerillas who had caused the Japanese many headaches) approached Manila.  The Japanese commander, Sanji Iwabuchi, did not do what MacArthur did in 1942, as the latter declared the city open as the Americans fled, to save it from harm.  No, the Japanese commander chose to destroy the city and those in it.  There is on excuse for what he did, but he chose to consider all Filipinos as helping the Americans, making all the civilians fair game.

To save on bullets and other ammunition, he ordered his troops to use fire and bayonets and other creative means to kill men, women, and children in the most barbaric violence possible.  This violence matched pretty much anything the Nazis did in cruelty even if it did not match the scale of the Holocaust. 

The memorial has multiple signs:

The text of the main description: The Central figure is a woman, quite large, dominant in size and proportion.  She is the motherland. She weeps as she holds an infant, the symbol of hope, but the infant is dead. It presents lost hope. The female figure on the right side is a victim of rape.  There is an infant clinging to her. On the left side is a man, still alive, looking confused and disoriented, despair on his face. The young boys are dead represnting the youth the country has lost.  The dead man lying portrays the elderly who were caught in the battle.  

 

 

 This second sign lists the sites of major atrocities.   

 

 

 

 

Nearby was a set of placards put up last year on the 80th anniversary, explaining what had happened.

The commander killed himself towards the end of the battle.  Two other Japanese commanders were tried for war crimes and executed.  After I went through this area, I hit a mall that had a bunch of Japanese restaurants, and, well, I wasn't quite sure how to feel about it.  I do remember that when I went to Tokyo on a junket of four Canadian academics organized and paid by the Embassy of Japan, one of the requests they made was to push Canada to mentor the new democracies of Southeast Asia.  Why?  Because the Japanese understood they could not due to history like this.  And, no, I didn't see this history of Manila discussed in any of the history museums I have visited in Japan.  

Today's Japanese are not responsible for the horrific crimes of their ancestors, but I wish they did a better job of teaching the past to the next generation--in this, the Germans are great role models.  

I had hoped to get to Corrigedor on this trip, but, well, post-divorce Steve has less extra cash for an expensive addition to this trip.  Grant money can't fund that.  I will be asking questions about relations between Japan and the Philippines in the next few days, and will report back about what I learn.


 

Manila, Day 1: Heat is Exhausting Edition

National park

 I am in Manila, capital of the Philippines, as the Canadian Department of National Defence is running a junket of experts or influencers or whatever I am to learn about the new headquarters they are standing up for a three star officer and to get a better understanding of the Indo-Pacific.

 

 

To be clear, the flight, hotel, and much of the food is on me and the other participant.  This has been the policy for quite some time, so I covered my expenses for similar trips to Latvia and Portugal.  For the trip long ago in 2007 to Afghanistan, that was on DND's dime.  They had a far greater incentive to share info (or conduct info ops) back then, resulting in multiple trips with larger groups.  I say this upfront as I have been clear to DND that their current policy selects against younger (and therefore more diverse) scholars as they tend to have less flexibility and resources in their grant funding.  This almost certainly had an impact on the attendance--two people.   I know I am lucky that I can do this kind of thing.  The other participant is from a Canadian think tank with mysterious funding.

UNESCO protected 
Cathedral

This policy may be changing given the flow of resources into DND, but I am skeptical.  I think fear of being accused by some folks in the media that the military is wasting money, running party trips, may deter a policy change.  Too bad as these trips are very, very helpful for getting very quick, extensive, expansive views of key Canadian missions.  My two books on Afghanistan (one with Dave)benefited greatly from having a brief (just one week) bit of ground experience, getting a sense of the geography, asking questions both in the formal briefings and in other encounters.  The Portugal and especially Latvia trips were similarly helpful in providing an opportunity to drink from the firehose--to learn a lot in very little time.  

Year of the Horse in 
Chinatown

We will be meeting with Canadian embassy folks, senior Filipino officials in the government and in their military, think tank folks, and more.  We will also be doing a bit of tourism together on Saturday--the American Manila Cemetery, the walled city, and a big mall.  We have Sunday free.  Monday, we meet with Filipino military education people and do some naval stuff in the afternoon: their coast guard, a Canadian ship that is here, and more.  I am frequently asked to comment on Canada's Indo-Pacific efforts, so I will be better informed to do so (while being aware that I am, yes, a tool for DND's info ops).

 

 

I have no idea what pissed
these spuds off.

I got here two days early so that I could adjust to the time zone (12 hours difference) and the heat (oh my, the difference).  Yesterday, it was in the high 90s and quite humid.  It didn't feel that bad, but it ultimately kicked my butt in a big way.  I took the local equivalent of an uber out to Chinatown, found a good restaurant, and then walked to a market.  I then walked from there to the big national park with the intent to go to the National Museum.  Along the way, I found two big cathedrals and a memorial to the massacre of Manila in February-March of 1945 (see my next post).  I also stopped by a garden.  I was then so tired I decided to skip the museum for the day and hit a nicely air conditioned mall.  It was full of fun signs.  

Manila is definitely not a walking city--the sidewalks go from wide to thin to non-existent--the distances are quite large between various places, and the traffic is a bit intense.  My adventure today will focus on two spots that are close to each other--the aforementioned museum and the bay.  Much less ambition, hopefully less heat exhaustion.  I had a great conversation with one driver, and, yes, when each driver asks, I say I am Canadian ;)  Which I am, but I am playing down my American id, as so far, Trump is not so popular here. 

So far, the biggest surprise has been how each bank has a guard in front with a very serious pistol-gripped shotgun.  Just as I know I am getting close to an American embassy anywhere in the world, I know I am near a bank when I see one of those guys (haven't seen a woman holding down that job yet).  The other gendered thing is that I have seen plenty of men sitting on the sidewalk watching their phones but no women. 

The big Cathedral has been rebuilt seven times--destroyed by earthquakes six times and by American bombers in World War II.  More on the WWII destruction in my next post after breakfast.  And more on what I learn from the briefings and meetings over the next few days.

 

Seven Years of CDSN-Ing? Not Over Yet

 Yesterday, April fools day, the Canadian Defence and Security Network helped the Embassy of Türkiye hold an event about the future of NATO.  Türkiye is the host of the next NATO summit (if it happens, see my next post), and they wanted to have an event in Ottawa to help set up the forthcoming event.

This event happened precisely day after our seven year SSHRC Partnership Grant officially ended.  Seven years ago, the PG grant funded the creation and operation of the CDSN.  It is a seven year grant, so I wanted to mark the official end of it.  To be clear, this is not the end of the CDSN.  We have DND funding via a MINDS Collaborative Grant to continue operating until at least January 2027 and perhaps another 18 months beyond that.  Moreover, we are waiting for the news about CDSN 2.0: the Civil-Military Relations Network.  We couldn't simply ask to be renewed--the SSHRC requires any 2.0 of a PG to be different--bigger/narrower, more ambitious/more focused. The CMRN will include more partners from around the world (bigger/more ambitious) and focus on civilian control of the armed forces at a moment were politicization of the armed forces is a significant danger to many democracies (narrower/more focused).  The odds of getting this second PG grant are quite good given the reviews of the earlier stages we have received, given the moment we are in, and given that the SSHRC is apparently funding more of these projects.  

Back to the event, we got asked by the embassy to help organize this event as we did something similar last year for the Embassy of the Netherlands in advance of the NATO summit in The Hague.  The CDSN has done a great many things over the past seven years (see below) with helping embassies in Ottawa connect with Canadians one of the frequent but unanticipated efforts.  Our grant application didn't have anything proposed in this vein, but by creating a comprehensive, national network linking academic institutions with military and government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and firms and having great staff, we have developed a reputation for reliably facilitating these kinds of events.  The grant funds, among other things, two amazing staffers, Melissa Jennings and Sherry LaPlante, and a rotating team of graduate student assistants, so we have much capacity to do things that were beyond the scope of the original grant.  

What have we been doing over the past seven years?  Well, we will put out the full and official final report this summer, but I can listicle:

• Five Summer Institutes that have helped to bridge the divides between the worlds of the academy, military, and government (it would have been six if not for the pandemic).
• Seven Podcast programs. We had planned on one and then in partnership with the Network for Strategic Analysis we started a podcast in French and then it exploded from there to creating our own podcast network
• Seven Capstones where we brought together the best speakers from our partners' events to network with each other and to help our partners extend their events beyond the time and place of the original conference or panel or whatever.
• Six Post-Docs: Linna Tam-Seto, Johanna Masse, Thomas Hughes, Ryan Atkinson, Manu Ramkumar, and Sanjida Amin.  They all brought much energy and intelligence and creativity to our events and activities.  Linna and Thomas are now co-hosts of our BattleRhythm podcast, and Manu is destined for podcast greatness if we get the next grant
• Annual Year Ahead Conferences helping those in the capital anticipate the events and dynamics in the near future.
• Several Book Workshops helping emerging scholars get feedback and publish their work.  
• About a dozen Undergraduate Excellence Scholars, which was an effort to encourage undergraduates from historically excluded communities to get more involved in defence and security. 
• A heap of surveys as we did both traditional surveys about Canadian attitudes about defence and security and survey experiments to assess, for instance, what forms of discrimination most greatly impact attitudes about the CAF. 
• Four research teams producing several books, heaps of articles, many papers on military personnel, security, operations, and civil-military relations. 
• and a whole lot more, including two MINDS Network Grants that expanded the areas of our research to include global health, supply chains, domestic operations, and climate security.

For the initial grant, we had to establish our objectives:

• Creating a coherent, world-class network. ✅
• Advancing the body of knowledge✅
• Tailoring research initiatives, directly informing policymaking✅
• Facilitating cross-sector information and data sharing✅
• Improving the defence and security literacy of Canadians✅
• Building the next generation of experts with an emphasis on equity, diversity, and inclusion.

As the✅'s indicate, I think we have achieved our objectives.  As Melissa put it in our first webpage, we sought to Research, Connect, and Amplify, and we did that in a big way.  We maintained our independence as we didn't receive any defence contractor money, and we consisitently spoke truth to power.  The best example of that might have been my op-ed calling for the firing of the Minister of National Defence in 2021 at the same time we had a grant application under review at the Department of National Defence.

 I am very grateful to the entire CDSN team and network.  I learned a lot, mentored a lot of students and emerging scholars, made a lot of new friends, got to travel a bunch, and I am pretty sure that the CDSN will be the most important thing I will have done in my career.  Some folks asked me about the Partnership Grant process, and when I told them about it and that I was working with the team to do it again, they noted that I must like this stuff.  Indeed, I do.  It has been a lot of work, but it has been incredibly meaningful. 

So, I hope to hear good news soon so that we can do this again for another seven years. 

 

ISA In Ohio? Yowza!

 I missed the last two meetings of the International Studies Association as I was in Berlin for a couple of winters.  So, I was eager to get back to the ISA and see lots of folks.  Alas, it was only partly successful as a combination of events/dynamics limited the attendees:

• those outside of the US avoiding Trump's border police
• those still trying to get here denied by flight challenges in Toronto and elsewhere
• Pete Hegseth's hostility to any kind of book learnin', limiting those who could come from the various professional military education institutions--the War Colleges and their ilk

Still, I got to see some dear friends and enjoy their company and surprisingly great food.  The convention center has a number of great spots near by, including great ice cream and bagels and ... booze.  

I was thrilled, as I always am, to see my written work in the wild: 
 

 

 

 

I participated on two roundtables.  The first was to recognize and honor Debbi Avant for her work in both international security and interdisciplinary stuff.   I was asked, I guess, to be on the roundtable since I went to grad school with her and then much later starting doing work that was inspired by hers.  I first talked about her impact on a young PhD program and a young PhD student.  She was one of the original PhD students at UCSD and through her efforts and her being a role model, helped to build a truly collaborative, fun, and very helpful environment.  For many grad school is pure misery.  For me and I think most of my peers at UCSD, we had a different experience--we had fun on the soccer fields, softball fields, beaches, and at Debbi's parties.  Oh, and in the classrooms as we didn't compete with each other, but instead gave each other much help.  

It was great to see Hendrik again and 
especially hear him talk about his former
his former office mate 

In her work, Debbi really did break a lot of ground and gave us a path to follow.  She applied principal-agent theory to civil-military relations before anyone else, she engaged in comparative analysis to see how democratic institutions shaped civil-military dynamics, and contradicted conventional wisdoms about warriors being out of control.  My work on civil-military relations for the past nearly 20 years followed from hers in many ways, and so my debts to her are many.  I made sure to give her thanks and recognize her contributions.  The other contributors at the roundtable testified to her great spirit and intellect.  My only regret is that I didn't bring down cookies I had made for the poker game down from my room, as she used her baking to bring people together long before I combined baking and international relations.  I look forward to her forthcoming cookbook.

My other roundtable was on public engagement.  I thought we had settled this--that most of us should be doing public engagement.  The panel was, of course, as much as on how as on should.  I did raise a few things: that in today's corrupted info environment, we have more of an obligation to spread knowledge; that our VORPs are mostly positive, and that our grants require know
ledge mobilization strategies.  I talked about the good (it can be fun, it can give you access, it can help citations), the bad ( you can be wrong in public, backlashes are common), and the ugly (where to publish stuff when all the bars seem to have Nazis).  The panelists--Elizabeth Meehan, Dani Gilbert, Dan Drezner, Naaz Barma, and Kathy Perry--all had sharp contributions, and the Q&A went well.

I also attended the panel celebrating the life and mourning the loss of Brandon Valeriano.  Folks told funny stories, reported on his many important contributions, and how tragic it was to lose him just as he was getting his dream job.  We took some photos so that his family could see how much love there was for their big guy.

 Our civ-mil hangout was a success.  We had about a dozen people hanging out in a bar.  We connected emerging scholars with, ahem, senior ones.

 

 

 

 

 

An old tradition returned: ISA poker!  We had a good time although folks had a nasty tendency to call my bluffs but not call me when I had great cards.  It was not the same as we missed Brandon, and some of our other regulars couldn't make it.  We talked much of recruiting a new generation. It turns out that the biggest deterrent to new players may have been .... me.  I guess I was always worried about the game getting too big.  This time, we finagled a "parlor room" that was perfect for the game.  Something we will try in the future.

 

 

I had visited Columbus a few times when I was at Oberlin long ago, but only to play ultimate.  So, I enjoyed wandering the neighborhood near the convention center, taking pics of murals while looking for great ice cream, bagels, and other food.  

I am glad I made it back to this conference.  I know that I have only a handful of these left, so I am treasuring each one and expressing my thanks along the way.  My friends are starting to retire, and that is not far away for me.  So, to all I chatted with this week, thanks for making this place special and making me welcome in this strange discipline of ours.
 

Yoda Was Right

 I don't remember all of my dreams, but last night, I had one that stuck with me.  I was at some kind of event where the media* were egging on a crowd, using fear to get the
m more and more angry.  I popped out of a car, ran over, and started to try to jolly the crowd out of their fearful and angry mood.  Both within the dream and after I woke up, I thought about fear and anger, the moment, we are in and two bits of pop culture.

The first bit was, of course, Yoda instructing Luke that fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering.  The second bit was in Ghostbusters (the second one, I think) where a toxic slime was getting increasingly powerful and nasty from the hate pulsing through NY, and they used humor and laughter to fight it.

The moment we are in is full of anger and is outraging.  Trump and the "populists" around the world have used fear, anger, and resentment to direct hate at the vulnerable (not just trans people, but they are the poster people for this dynamic these days) to get into power and deflect blame for their failures.  So much of what Trump and his people have done has been cruel and has inflicted much suffering in the US and around the world with Iranian kids being the latest to pay the price.  

Watching all of this unnecessary pain and suffering--the kids sent to American concentration camps or killed by American and Israeli bombs--causes a backlash of hate and anger. But I don't think anger is going to get us out of this.

One of the best ways to fight the bullying, the posturing, the Pete Hegsething is to mock them, make fun of them, to use satire, parody, and any other comic device to make clear that these poseurs are beneath contempt.  Laughter may not always be the best medicine, but when punching up, it causes less collateral damage and mostly does not empower the worst people.  

My experience at the fall's No Kings protest was one of joy and community and laughter, as people had funny signs, mocking the autocrats and the haters.  Yes, we need to be serious about the stakes here, and those planning protests must be deliberate and careful as any violence will be used as an excuse to escalate.  But, as those on the side of light always argue, let's not give into the hate.  Sure, Stephen Miller is contemptible and should be punished and ostracized, but let's not become him.  

Of course, if I am wrong, Yoda also said: best teacher failure is. 

 

* I don't blame the legit media although the dynamic of where it bleeds, it leads does create more fear--that there is actually less crime than people think and less crime than there used to be.  

Demanding Answers, Avoiding Responsibilty: the Canadian Parliamentarians Always Disappoint

 Canada has a base in Kuwait, a legacy of the counter-ISIS mission and part of a program having spots around the world facilitating potential operations.  It got hit by Iranian missiles, and opposition parliamentarians are outraged that they were not told.  Fun grandstanding, sure.  But what's going on here?

Yes, the government may have chosen to hide the attack because they didn't want criticism of their crappy stance on Iran and that the US risked its allies without notifying/consulting them.  But perhaps there may have been a reason to keep stuff classified--that telling the public about the attack also tells Iran how accurate their targeting was and maybe to try again.

In a mature democracy (or even one that is in rapid decline), there is a way out of this conundrum: that some members of the legislature, let's say the defence committee or the opposition leaders, have security clearances so that they can be informed when secret stuff happens.  No, they can't then release that info to the public, but they can talk about the generalities so that the public can be informed of the basic idea. 

See how Senator Chris Murphy does it:

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public. I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are. 1/ Here's what I can share:

— Chris Murphy (@chrismurphyct.bsky.social) March 10, 2026 at 10:03 PM

And even if the stuff is so secret that the legislators can't talk about it, their ability to know can be a key constraint on government.  Dave, Phil, and I wrote a fairly recent book about exactly this stuff.  I initiated the project because I was stunned by the deliberate ignorance of Canadian members of parliament--that they would prefer to know less and talk more than know more and have to be responsible.  Canadian MPs will say that this is way it is done in Westminster governments, and now Dave, Phil, and I have the receipts to say: bushwah.  Nope, the Aussies and Brits have managed to find ways to actually engage in oversight (that is, they know what the military has done, not that they have a say in what they do, for those who interpret the word oversight differently).  

But for MPs, it is more fun to blast the government for covering things up than actually knowing stuff.  A long running story in Canadian politics has been that the opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, has refused to be cleared.  My bluesky followers suspect that PP has skeletons that a clearance process would reveal, but the answer is more obvious and direct: he does not want the responsibility of knowing stuff.  He'd rather be ignorant and wrong than have to be careful about his criticism of government.  As Murphy shows above and plenty of opposition legislators around the world know quite well, you can be informed and still provide trenchant, on-target, critical criticisms of the government the day and yet not violate secrecy of the info one has received.

So, I have no sympathy for whiny Conservatives on this.  I also think that the Liberals, like all Canadian parties in power, treat the public like kids and not adults.  When pushed on this, Carney said: “I’m not the only spokesperson for the government, but I’ll just confirm that members of the Canadian Forces are all safe and sound,” said Carney.

 Sorry, sir, but, yes, that actually is a key part of the job.  The best way to fight disinformation is to be as transparent as possible.  The best way to de-fang opposition criticisms is to be ahead of the story and tell the public as much as you can.  Don't act like your job does not include informing the public.  You are not a central banker anymore.

I post this because the Canadian public (and others, most democracies have largely ignorant legislatures) should know that the opposition MPs are playing a game, a dumb game that helps to reduce trust in government (abetting the far right populists), as they could know but choose not to.   

 

A Tale of Two Lousy Allies: the US and Israel in a War of Their Own Making

 Alliances are hard all the time.  But if the allies share common values and have shared interests, they can find ways to work together.  Watching the US-Israel war with Iran proceed, I can't help but think that those of us who have criticized NATO might have been a bit unfair.  Getting consensus among 30+ like-minded countries is hard, very hard, and the alliance has to have an opt-out for any mission (in Article V, the language is "each contributes as each deems necessary).  But when you have two increasingly autocratic countries both led by criminals (ok, to be fair, Netanyahu hasn't been convicted yet, right?) who are bad faith actors who don't believe in anything but staying in power, things get a bit trickier.

While we are not privy to the actual conversations between Trump's team and Netanyahu, we have had clues in the media---that Netanyahu pushed for this war now, and Trump went along with it.  This would not be the first time a country dragged another ally into a war, as that is one of two horns of the alliance dilemma with the other possibility being a country abandons its ally.  And drag may be a strong word since Trump probably did not have to be pushed hard given his previous attacks against Iran and Iranian interests (killing Solimani, last summer's bombing) and, of course, Trump hasn't thought through the consequences such as oil price spikes and much inflation back home. 

This gets to the larger question: if allies don't agree on the goal, how does an alliance work?  What does Israel want in this war?  It seems to be the destruction of Iran as a state, which means hitting any and all targets that might help fracture the state and destroy its capacity.  For the US?  Damned if I know since the various officials--Trump, Rubio, Hegseth--have all said multiple things.  If it was regime change, the US would want Iran to have infrastructure intact (water desalination, oil refineries) so that the new regime can manage.  If it is ending the missile threat, that too would suggest more limited attacks.  If it is to complete the Christian nationalist dream of ushering in the end of times, well, oh my, I guess that means killing anyone and everyone.

There were some reports that the US was displeased with Israel hitting oil refineries, which raises a big question: how much cooperation is there over targeting?  During the Kosovo campaign, NATO allies coordinated quite a bit over what to hit when?  Libya?  Same thing.  ISIS?  I think so.  Now, hard to tell.  That the Trump regime didn't prepare for or plan for Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz tells us a lot about American preparation or lack thereof. 

Israel?  Perhaps the epitome of tactically sound, strategically incompetent.  The Israeli military is really good at hitting its targets, but how that relates to security I have no idea.  From my trip back in 2019, I go the impression that hitting hard is not just the key tactic but pretty much the only goal.  Restraint does not make sense for them since they have already priced in world opposition: everyone hates them, everyone is anti-semitic, so they might as well do what they want.  And that has worked really well for them--they have had long periods of peace and stability.*   Oh wait, it hasn't, but the learning curve seems to tilt towards simply escalating whenever they are hit.  It creates deterrence that lasts ... hours or days.  

So, the US has been a lousy but useful ally for Israel as Trump is unreliable and fickle.  Israel is a lousy ally for the US, helping get an all-too-willing US into a war that provides no real benefits to the American people (Americans hate Iran thanks to the hostage crisis, when folks used to sing bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran, yet they still hate this war--great achievement by Team Trump).  The US is an even worse ally for, well, all of its allies.  It made all of the Mideast targets for Iranian attacks--why should Iran restrain itself when its very existence is at stake?  The US radically increased oil prices for its friends, which only helps Russia and other oil exporting places (Alberta?), and it has made the coalition/domestic political games of its European allies far more difficult.  

All of this was foreseeable, which is why American presidents have refrained from attacking Iran, even, yes, the ideological and dim Bushies.  But the Trump regime hates being told it can't do something, like a toddler, and is deliberately ignorant.  Which led to being very poorly prepared for the likely Iranian responses that came to fruition. 

 

* I keep putting off writing a post that puts a significant hunk of blame on the increase in anti-semitism around the world on Israel because, yes, yowza.  The Israeli stance of pricing in hate is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Yes, there is anti-semitism in the world, just like there is Islamophobia, and the actions of states that are seen as the homelands of such religions matter in exacerbating or ameliorating those pre-existing tendencies.  Israel will tell Jews to come home to Israel if they want to be safe, which is, alas, mighty rich given that Israel's actions have increased the danger to Jews outside of Israel and.... yes, to Jews inside of Israel.  We can identify anti-semites and hold them responsible for their own actions (say, most of the Trump regime) and still hold Israel responsible for pouring gasoline on these pre-existing fires. 

 

 

What Does Davos Mean Anyway?

 I have been asked to comment on a flippity flopish move by Prime Minister Carney re Iran: first saying, hey, we love them Americans bombing Iran to, hey now, maybe we should all be a bit more restrained.   How to make sense of this?  Hmmm.  I think the first thing to consider is that the Davos Statement is not that clear and is certainly not that prescriptive in this moment.  Second, domestic politics may play a role.  Third, bad habits may have been in play.  Let's contrast the statements:

First statement:

Canada supports the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security. 

Second statement:

We take this position with regret, because the current conflict is another example of the failure of the international order. Despite decades of United Nations Security Council resolutions, the tireless work of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and a succession of sanctions and diplomatic frameworks, Iran’s nuclear threat remains. And now the United States and Israel have acted without engaging the United Nations or consulting with allies, including Canada.

So where to from here? With a rapidly spreading conflict and growing threats to civilian life. Canada reaffirms that international law binds all belligerents. We condemn the strikes carried out by Iran on civilians and civilian infrastructure across the Middle East. We implore all parties, including the United States and Israel, to respect the rules of international engagement.

So, first, Carney's statement at Davos says that Canada can't always side with the US (as he likened the US-based world order to Soviet-occupied Czechoslovakia) and that Canada needs to be pragmatic, not always principled.  Okey dokey, what does that mean for this weekend?  Whatever you want, really.  The first statement complies with Davos as it is unprincipled, woot!  Second statement complies as it is more critical of the US--not consulting with allies, needed to be reminded not to do war crimes.  

On the other hand, the first statement looks sketchy as all get out because it was buying the US story immediately without waiting for any sense that the Trump administration had a plan, a justification, etc.  Supporting a bad faith actor can only go .... badly.  We should know that by now.  I was pretty outraged by the initial statement because this is a badly justified war fought badly, and Carney should have understood that.  Don't support dumb shit.*  

Second, domestic politics: supporting an attack on Iran is popular among the Iranian diaspora and among many Jewish Canadians, so why not pander to them?  Playing to ethnic groups does not always mean bad policy outcomes, but, well, disaporas rarely know best.  They tend to be more extreme than those who remained behind (leaving is a selection effect kind of thing) and become more extreme as they don't have to pay the price for what they advocate.  I used to study diasporas, so I apologize for brutally generalizing about behavior that is well, pretty general.  While Jews hate Netanyahu, they hate Iran a lot, too.  The polls in Israel are instructive on this score.  Not sure how North American Jews feel as, yes, not all Jews think the same way on things, and the schism between Israeli Jews and North American Jews has widened since October 2023.  Still, I can imagine political operatives around Carney saying quickly before people had time to think: hey, we have to support attacking this regime because our voters think it is icky (which, to be fair, it was/is).  

Third, habits and bureaucratic routines may have dominated at first.  Canada always sides with US, always has problems with Iran, so those in GAC and PM's Office went with the old scripts, not really thinking through how Davos and Trump and rank incompetence might suggest a different approach.  

Why the change in heart?  Maybe Carney noticed the other allies being a bit more circumspect.  Maybe the schoolgirls and other reckless attacks and Hegseth's repeated assurances that he will war crime had an impact.  Maybe the realization that the US is a bad faith actor run by morons who did no prep, and tying oneself to them is not great?  Maybe the realization that Elbows Up includes not siding with the US automatically?  I hope someone can get the inside scoop on why the flip flop.  The new position isn't great either, but it is better than the first one. 

Of course, this raises what Canada should have done. What a great time to distance from the US?  This would have been an opportunity to show that the heart of Davos, not being so attached to the US, is what matters and matters in a crisis.  Look at the accolades the Spanish are getting, look at the Brits initially refusing to let the US use Diego Garcia.  If Trump wants to be transactional, then be transactional.  Don't give loyalty unless you can get something for it.

* Yes, it is a bad war--the flailing for a decent justification is more than a clue.  There was no need to attack Iran this weekend.  We have lived with Iran being an obnoxious, awful regime for quite some time.  Another day, week, month, year doesn't really change anything except to the Iranians who we are not really helping (killing moderates alternatives is just about the dumbest thing since the US disbanded the Iraqi military over night).  Yes, Iran was in pursuit of nuclear weapons, but there had been diplomacy that had addressed that.  These days, the Iranians get that they can't bargain with bad faith actor Trump.  Maybe two weeks ago, but not now and not anytime soon.  So, destroying the one reasonable pathway is very dumb.  And then there is the execution of this war---no consultation with allies so people are stuck in the region.  Friendly fire incidents galore.  Dead school girls.  Allies lacking protection from the obvious Iranian reaction.

 Oh, and I realized as I talked to the media today: if you push Iran into a corner where the existence of the regime is at stake, why should they hold back anything?  It makes no sense to save any instruments of power for a more desperate future.  So, they launch missiles and drones in every direction, they may close the Strait of Hormuz, they may encourage terrorist attacks around the world.   

The Christian Armed Forces

 I guess it is time to post this meme again

So much has happened in the past 13 months that has been awful for American civil-military relations that I had an RA put together a list.  I have to go through it and then I am going to share it so that it can be crowdsourced and updated.  So, are civil-military relations worse now than the various other awful moments?  It is hard to judge, but this latest story suggests the descent into the abyss is, indeed, further along.

What's the story?  That the Christian nationalism that has long been present in the US military is now more vocal than in the past.  Sure, SecDef Pete Hegseth has Christian nationalist tattoos but that's no big deal, right?  Wrong.

This story, that more than 30 different commanders issued Christian nationalist statements when talking to their troops as this illegal, ill-prepared, misconceived war of aggression was launched is truly awful.  Why?

First, that the military is infested or infected with Christian nationalism is not new.  Just look at almost any picture of the US Air Force Academy and you will notice the most distinct/celebrated building is its chapel.  It is quite symbolic of the place--where stories of evangelical Christians dominating the place and persecuting cadets who did not share their religion go way back.  I was aware of this even before I visited the USAFA in 2002 or 2003 as part of an academic conference.  Indeed, the group sited in the story, that seeks to protect those who in the military from religious discrimination/hazing/persecution had, I am pretty sure, its origins in complaints about USAFA.   The academy is in the most religious, far right part of Colorado, so the community around USAFA helps to reinforce the domination of "Christians" who have a very narrow version of Christianity--that non-evangelicals don't count--that Catholics are papists, that Presbyterians don't count, and on and on.  

Second, Christian nationalists, despite their name, don't have the usual Christian values of love and community.  It is about hate and domination.  We see that in their alliance with Trump is the opposite of a devout believer in Jesus.  The Christian nationalists hope for the return of Christ so that they can go to heaven and everyone else can burn.  They have long seen Israel as a means to an end--the Jews need to run the land of Israel for Armageddon to happen.  They see Muslims as not human and worthy of a new crusade, which is not really a great foundation for the US to work with some Muslim countries against other ones.  

Third, besides being wrong for all kinds of value reasons, it is also toxic for the US military.  That the majority of the US military is not this radical version of Christian (well, maybe the Air Force is) means that this Christian nationalism is divisive, far more divisive than gays in the military or women in the Marines.  This Christian nationalism seethes with contempt for the non-believers, which is why so many complaints get sent so quickly.

Which gets to our moment.  Hegseth has done for Christian nationalism in the military what Trump did for racism in the American public--he changed the permission structure.  Now it is ok to be an officer and invoke the language of Christian nationalism as part of one's job, to inflict it upon one's subordinates, just like Trump (and Fox) made it ok to be racist in public.  Hegseth was wildly unqualified for many reasons, but his Christian nationalism made him disqualified--he should never have been confirmed by the Senate.  Why?  Because he would eventually poison the military with his toxic ideology.

So, it is bad to purge the military of senior Black and female officers and replace with yes-dudes.  But that may or may not trickle down all the way.  But empowering the Christian nationalists is probably worse as it will affect everyone and everywhere.  

What happens if reason wins and the Dems come back into power?  How will they stuff the toxic toothpaste back in the tube?  Will they have to go through the US military and remove all of the Christian nationalists?  I am in Brazil right now, and they can't simply remove all pro-Jan8th military personnel--they were the same uniforms as everyone else.  The damage that Hegseth and Trump are doing to the military, like the damage done elsewhere, will simply be very, very difficult to undo, even if the Dems can get big enough majorities to impose their will and, yes, have the guts to do what is necessary.

As always, the big tragedy here, besides the death of innocents, is that it didn't have to be this way.  I hate the term war of choice as we should use clearer, stronger language--war of aggression maybe--but Hegseth was a choice that didn't have to be made.  The larger issue of the infiltration of the US military by Christian nationalists is not really a one-person story, of course, but Hegseth empowered these haters.  And now we have the lastest awful day in US civ-mil history. 

 

Kitzbuhel Rocks

 I am on my way home for a brief layover to pack and do errands before heading to Brazil for the next case study for the Defense Agency project, and I wish I could have stayed longer.  Kitzbuhel was a pretty cool place to ski when it was snowing wet flakes and with limited visibility.  It was a terrific place when the clouds entirely departed.  Yesterday, we got th
e bluest day possible, rivaling some sweet blue sky days I have had elsewhere.  The snow was spring-ish as the temps were rising.  I have limited spring snow experience, and now I have much more.

The key to this great day of skiing was realizing that all of the bumps (no designed moguls here, but lots of traffic through melting snow made for many bumps) were easy to navigate as I could go around or through.  My sister noticed I became more and more aggressive as the day went along, pushing through the bumps, trying as much as possible to stay in rhythm, using the bumps t
o change direction.  

This part of the Alps are beautiful as it turns out.  The setup was good, with lots of lifts, although the chair/gondola balance was not as skewed towards gondolas at Saalbach.  Still, mostly very comfy, leather, heated seats (we didn't need the heat at all).  There were occasional lift lines that were not nearly as bad as they looked, so maximum wait was 10 minutes.  My sister hired a guide who took us all over the right side of the place--we only took the big gondola to the distant mountain once just to see it--we didn't have enough time or energy to ski there. 

The terrain was quite good--mostly wide slopes with some decent steepish parts.  Too many traverses.  The ridges were fantastic--great views and not windy.  The only big challenge of the day was the traffic.  I don't think I have been surrounded by as many skiers as I was yesterday.  So, most of my thinking yesterday was not about technique but tactics--when to stop and when to start and on which side to avoid the many bodies. 

I enjoyed the very short slalom course that was built for kids (I banged my helmet trying to enter the course area) and got smoked by a teenager who left the gate before I was set:

 I could have worn one less layer--but I have no real spring skiing style experience.  So, I was pretty warm.  

Our guide showed us the famous Hannankahm race course, and we did a very tiny piece of it.  

  

Now that I am on the way home, I now have to figure out where Saalbach and Kitzbuhel rank.  I definitely enjoyed them more than my previous Austrian experience at Zurs and Lech.  I think, putting aside having more fun since I had a ski buddy on this trip, Zermatt and S/K compete.  Both had amazing views,varying terrain, great chalets on the slopes, and lots of good slopes for my ability.  S/K were easier to navigate with better signage and better design.  I think I liked the terrain at Saalbach better, but I would have to do more at Kitzbuhel to be sure.  One more day would have really helped with the comparative analysis.

In terms of ski towns, Zermatt was better but not much better than K and both are better than Saalbach.  Zermatt benefits in part by its proximity to Italy--Italian food is much better than Austrian, athough I enjoyed several apfelstrudels and one wonderful Kaiserschmarrm.  

I guess the big test is where would I want to go back the soonest, and the answer is Hokkaido.  But if Japan is out, then probably Kitzbuhel for more exploration and to address my completion fixation/FOMO, then Saalbach and then Zermatt, but recency bias is a hell of a thing. 

One last thing--this is a very bad year for avalanches in Europe and North America.  The a-alert level was 4 on a 5 point scale, so people couldn't go off piste.  We did see some spots were mini, controlled avalanches occurred. 

 The only danger I faced were the crowds, who I mostly avoided, and a slipping ski buddy on the lifts, and that, well, was a closer thing.  While I am tired, I only have a slightly sprained finger and am ready for two weeks of asking interesting folks a bunch of pesky questions.  But first: two flights home and a heap of laundry.

 

 

 

 

 

Austrian Alps 2: Electric Bugaloo

 This week, I am getting my second chance to enjoy Austrian skiing.  Two years ago, I had a good time at Zurs and Lech despite meh snow.  That trip was a short hop from where I was staying in Berlin.  Last year, I made a similar hop from Berlin to Zermatt in Switzerland. This year, I am joining my sister, her guy, his daughter, and some of their friends in two ski areas--Saalbach-Hinterglemm and Kitzbühel.  Today was moving day from the former to the latter.  

I am my sister's ski buddy since her boyfriend likes to go off-piste or hang on the black diamonds (although in Europe, that is simply black with blues being easy and red being intermediate).  So, the two of us did a pretty good job of exploring the place.  The lift system (more in a second) connects many peaks, so there is much terrain to cover.  The first day we did zones D and E by ourselves.   The second day we had a guide, who had to change things on the fly as some of the upper lifts were closed due to the winds, so we did some of C, B, D, and G.  The third day, we had a lunch planned far away, so we got to it by going up B, across A through I to L and then back via H, G, and D.  We mostly missed F and L.  So, I guess I need to come back to satisfy my FOMO/completion fixation.  We did red runs the first day, mostly blue the second, and more blues on the third.  The conditions tended to make all of this a bit more challenging with flat light much of the time, limited visibility some of the time, and very uneven snow.   

Overall, it was a blast.  The slopes tended to be quite wide so one can choose one's own adventure, which was handy as some of the spots had a heap of traffic.  Susan has gotten better so we skied pretty quickly.  I skied much better the third day--the snow at the top was fantastic and the visibility was great, so I could get into rhythm and keep a decent form.  The chalets all had very different designs but pretty similar Austrian food for the most part.  We took hot chocolate rest stops on days 1 and 3.  

The lifts, well, damn.  There were probably more gondolas than chairlifts, and nearly all of both had heated leather seats, and the chairs all had bubbles--plastic shields--to keep us out of the wind, snow, and, yes some rain.  This complex of trails had better signs than pretty much any other place I have ever skied and definitely better than my two previous Euro ski trips.

The surroundings were pretty, but didn't match Zermatt or Whistler, but much better than Zurs/Lech.  With the sun finally coming out yesterday afternoon, it was much easier to appreciate the area. 

Hinterglemm is a small town--with a string of towns along this valley.  It was easy to navigate, but there was not much there.  Short walks to the lifts on either side, which made the start and the end of the day great.  My sister's guy did excellent research and found excellent places to eat.  The places on the slopes were also good, but Austrian food would not finish in my top ten--too heavy.  However, the striudel was consistently terrific. 

The most important measure of a place is whether I want to come back, and I do.  I have two days to ski in Kitzbühel.  I am familiar with the name of this place due to its role in downhill skiing, but no other knowledge than that.  We will have a guide showing us the highlights tomorrow.  

Susan is the best ski buddy.  And, yes, I continue 
to wear the spikes so that she can follow me easily.
We did run into a woman who had a similar helmet
cover.

 

 

There Is No Department of War

 While waiting for a delayed flight (some kind of emergency messed up Newark tonight), I got miffed at a smart piece on the state of US-European relations.  In the second paragraph, it makes reference to the US Department of War.  There is no Department of War.  Just because Trump or Hegseth say something does not make it so.  As an agency created by Congress--twas a big deal merging Dept of War (yes, that is what it was called way back when as it was the Army's department) and Dept of Navy with a great book on aspects of its creation and consequences by Amy Zegart--can only be renamed with legislation.  Despite what he may think, Trump can't legislate.

The Department of War fits into the same category as Gulf of America--just more expensive and dumber.  It is more expensive because, yes, these insecure overcompensating actors have spent a heap of money on new letterhead, signs, and the like.  Can't have a stupid, counterproductive branding exercise without a heap of branding.

Why is it stupid?  Hegseth's justification is that the military is for warfighting, not for defense.  Besides the annoying belligerence and, again, faux alpha males peacocking, it is also just wrong.  These guys are not overcompensating for having small penii, they are overcompensating for being the bully/cowards that they are.  The US military can and does war, but it also defends.  Indeed, the most successful exercise of American power since the end of World War II has been the power of the US armed forces deterring aggression and, yes, limiting nuclear proliferation.

On the former, note that no country has conventionally attacked an American ally (a real ally with a treaty and everything, not countries that are referred to as a non-NATO ally--Pakistan doesn't count).  South Korea was attacked only after the US mistakenly left it outside of the security perimeter it had established.  West Europe remained free despite the Soviet military having far more strength in Europe.  Indeed, Putin refuses to hit NATO countries even as they funnel large amounts of weapons to Ukraine, even as Putin seems to have Trump on a leash.  Defending other countries via the threat of awesome American military power has been great for the US.  The postwar prosperity was built partly on this foundation.  The US fought two bloody wars, belatedly, before it provided security guarantees to Europe.  Since then?  None.  So, defending others is good for the US. And note, yes, no country has attacked the US conventionally either.  

On the latter, defending other countries via American deterrence--the tripwire of American troops whose deaths could trigger a nuclear response--has also reassured countries so they don't develop their own nuclear weapons.  Again, this is the US military providing defense that ultimately improves US security.  

And that gets at it--security is not just about fighting.  Critically, it is about not fighting.  It is about defending via deterrence.  So, the Department of Defense is aptly named and good branding.  Now, the US military has been used offensively in a number of ways over the decades, but a lot of that didn't go very well--Vietnam (quibble with that and I will bring up Cambodia and Laos) and Iraq to name two.  So, perhaps stick with what works?

Most fundamentally, autocrats like to create reality from, well, bullshit.  They call a gulf by a different name and demand obedience.  Same with this--don't obey the mad ravings of the autocrat.  If Trump wants to call it the Dept of War, then serious analysts will call it the Department of Defense until Congress changes it.  Many of Trump's executive orders have no basis in law or reality, so let's not give them any legitimacy or support.  And it is a really simple decision rule--call things by their legal names.