Israel Punking the US

I don't like to write much on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because it is the one ethnic conflict that I have avoided since a very bad job talk in 1993.  It brings out people's emotions and is also so over-written that too much reading would be required to keep up  This is why I don't write on Quebec in academic journals--too much work to get up to speed.

Anyway, I shared a piece on Petraeus, Biden and the recent Israeli snubs on my fb account, and it led to comments on comments.  Not a great venue for such a discussion.  So, here is my take in a nutshell.

I did mention Walt and Mearsheimer, not because they are right (I find their arguments to be really bad social science), but they do raise an important issue.  They argue that US policy is driven by a coherent and all powerful Israeli lobby, which then led the US into the Iraq war.  Because, as we know, Chalabi is an Israeli agent.  Or not. 

Anyway, to be clear, they do have one point that is on target, but is lost a bit in all the hoopla.  American foreign policy should be driven by American national interests.  Too, Israel should be driven by Israeli national interests.  These do not always coincide.  And this divergence becomes clear when General Petraeus notices that Israeli intransigence is doing the US no favors.  Of course, one could argue that Israel must take seriously US concerns, given the reliance on this one outside actor.  Israel does not have a line up of alternate great powers that can assist Israel.  So, either mind the relationship or learn to live on your own. 

I don't think the US will cut off Israel entirely, but it does appear that domestic politics seems to be trumping alliance maintenance.  Perhaps I am seeing this from a certain perspective since Australia is currently engaged in a bit of alliance maintenance itself. 

The key question is not why did Israel announce new building in East Jerusalem while Biden was in town, but what is Israel doing?  It might be comfortable with alienated neighbors, but alienating the US is not in Israel's interests.

And the US?  It has many interests in the area, with Israel being just one of them.  With troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, Somalia roiling again, Yemen yemening, Israel is simply only a priority in terms of how it affects these other things.  The folks in the US that care deeply about Israel might not like it, but the world does not begin or end with Israel.  Obama may get some abuse for putting some distance from Israel, but he is used to that.  And the more Israel embarasses American leaders, and the more American military leaders depict Israeli policies as security threats, the more freedom Obama will have.

There are important and powerful lobbies in America: the NRA, the American Medical Association, the lawyers - and the Israeli lobby. But no lobby is as important, or as powerful, as the U.S. military. While commentators and pundits might reflect that Joe Biden's trip to Israel has forever shifted America's relationship with its erstwhile ally in the region, the real break came in January, when David Petraeus sent a briefing team to the Pentagon with a stark warning: America's relationship with Israel is important, but not as important as the lives of America's soldiers. Maybe Israel gets the message now.[FP's mideast channel]

 This is where Obama has more power--not on health care, but on foreign policy priorities.  Putting Israeli into CENTCOM, as the cited article indicates that Petraeus is advocating, would send a clear message that Israel belongs to the region of dysfunction and not the region of institutions, cooperation and all that (Europe, even if Greece is in that one).

Mearsheimer and Walt would not disagree that Israel is not the only ME priority, but given their new-found status as scholars of ethnic/domestic politics and foreign policy (yes, I am being snarky), they should not expect any foreign policy change.  I disagree.  The near future shall be interesting, more so because Israeli domestic dynamics are alienating its only real friend in the world.