Much Ado About ... Something But Not Quite That Much: ABM Edition

Minister of National Defence Anita Anand was asked at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute's annual conference about whether the government would reconsider joining the US's Anti-Ballistic Missile program.  I was at the conference, and I heard her basically say: we are doing a comprehensive defence review and that will be part of it (because comprehensive means all inclusive).

This generated a heap of media coverage including a radio spot for me.  So, let me explain some of the context, why it is fun for the media, why this is mostly a nothingburger, and my prediction on what will happen.

Canada deviated from American preferences in the 2005 as Paul Martin said Canada would not join the American program--this was part of distancing him from a toxic George W. Bush (Canadians were not fans of the Iraq war) and also Canadian support for multilateralism as US ABM efforts trashed an arms control treaty.  Since then, the ABM stuff has been third-rail-ish--that the Liberals don't want to talk about it.  I forget why the Conservatives didn't jump on this when they were in power.  So, this is a bit of a thorn in US-Canadian relations as close cooperation regarding North American airspace is complicated by the fact that the US NORAD folks are double-hatted as NORTHCOM folks who do ABM stuff.  From what I have heard, when there are ABM-related issues at the joint HQ in Colorado, the Americans go into a different room, leaving the Canadians behind.

There is partly, as a result, some Canadian uncertainty about whether the Americans would shoot down missiles aimed at Canada.  An American general said a few years ago that the US was not obligated to do so.  This created a minor storm up here, but it was silly because:

1. The Americans will shoot down headed our way because they can't be certain a missile aimed at Vancouver is not really aimed at Seattle or a missile heading to Ottawa isn't aimed at Fort Drum.  Indeed, they would be shooting down missiles as early in their arc as possible.
   
2. The Americans would shoot down a missile heading towards Vancouver, even if they were certain, because a nuke there would make for a bad day in Seattle.
3. The Americans can't really shoot down the missiles anyway because the ABM efforts have been expensive but not so effective.
4. Who is shooting missiles at Canada and not the US anyway?

The media like this story because they love revisiting the past and seeing the Liberals tied up in knots over a policy position that has really been overcome by events.  Bush is gone, the ABM Treaty is dead, so it is actually an easy thing to change, but they may be stuck by intra-Liberal disputes.  

This is all important now not so much because of Russia vs. Ukraine but because the joint effort to protect North America requires substantial reinvestment.  The systems in the north to warn of attacks are obsolete apparently and can't address some of the more modern threats like cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles.  So, Canada is going to invest billions in new technologies, so that they can warn the US and Canada if someone attacks.  But this seems strange if Canada is not joining the effort to try (not succeed, but at least try) to shoot them down. What good is warning if you can't respond?  You get a few more minutes to hug your family?

The obvious answer here is to say: the situation has changed (maybe even blame Putin/Russia) and say that the new investments will be part of a commitment to the defence/defense of North America including ballistic (and other) missile defenses.  But I am guessing that might not happen.  Because intra-Liberal politics can be confusing and strange

So, I would bet on inertia. The review does provide an opportunity to change policy, but the last review did not make any hard decisions.  I expect Anand's review to make some (unlike her predecessor's), but I am not sure she would want to burn intra-party political capital on this.  

That the Canadian media is freaking out slightly over this shows yet again how immature our policy conversations in Canada tend to be.  I was annoyed yesterday at the conference when a former Defence Minister, Peter MacKay said two amazingly dumb thing that he should know better--that we should work on an Asia-Pacific NATO (nope, not happening) and that we should give our tanks to Ukraine (nope, we don't have any that are compatible with those the Ukrainians have, but I am sure that training and maintenance would be easy... not).  Moving beyond ABM politics should be straightforward, but it is not.  The media already smells the blood in the water on this, so I don't expect the Liberals to move on it.  They certainly would not get rewarded domestically for moving on, so why bother?

In other words, oy.