Last night, at the big conference dinner, a Finnish attendee asked me about the big question of 2024 in the US (yes, US are super worried and they should be). I first said that I don't do predictions anymore, given my blogging/tweeting/facebooking debacle of 2016. Then she pushed, so I discussed how I am slightly optimistic but that was diminishing with the potential impact of Gaza on Democratic turnout. And then I woke up this morning after another Democratic run of success--that the GOP has pretty much lost every election since 2016. So, I am feeling a bit more positive than I was last night.
So, what am I thinking now these days?
First, I am concerned about Gaza/Israel as it may turn off Arab Americans particularly in Michigan. I don't think that these folks will vote for Islamophobic, xenophobic Trump and his party that is now tyring to get Palestinians living in the US kicked out. But they may not turn out as much--that Dem turn out has been the key since 2016. So, not great. The Jewish vote? Oh, where it is strong, it is not going to swing anything---not in California, New York, or, ha, Florida.
Second, the vote yesterday matters far more than various polls. In each election since 2016, the GOP has underperformed. Why? It turns out switching from being vaguely racist, more obliquely misogynist, only somewhat theocratic to being rabidly racist, wildly Christian nationalist, and actually depriving women control over their bodies (arresting moms for transporting their daughters for abortions? jailing them?) has made a dent. In 2016, people could argue that Trump wasn't a real conservative and wouldn't appoint theocrats and their pals to the courts. Now? Yeah, people are mighty upset that radical courts matter, that state legislatures and various governors are very enthusiastic about making many Americans miserable in so many ways. So, abortion is a vote winner for the Dems, and that's not going to change anytime soon.
The part that stunned me the most was the wipeout of the Christian nationalists on school boards. Local politics is hard, people don't turn out, but the batshit crazy folks with their book banning and trans and homophobia hate, indeed, triggered the Libs. Trump and the GOP will be wearing this shit next year as the primary campaign is going to define the party as, well, freaking crazy and way outside the mainstream.
Third, on the big "issues" that the GOP want to use against Biden--his age, his son's crimes--Trump is far, far worse. Biden may be old, but there is not the record of him losing his train of thought and saying truly bizarre stuff compared to Trump. Of course, the media will false equivalence this stuff away, but that still means that Trump can't get much of an edge on this.
Fourth, I was asked what happens if Trump is in jail in November. I said unless it is for the documents case, I believe he will still be the GOP candidate. There is simply way too much fear in the party regarding Trump's supporters--both because they are violent and because candidates want their support if Trump were to somehow be eliminated. Trump's criminal behavior is already priced in, however, so it won't hurt him as much as it should. His voters both want power and are super resentful, so they don't care. Do enough non Trumpist Republicans exist that might stay at home? Um, I made a gamble about that last time, and it didn't work out--power matters more. HOWEVER, the big promise for non-Trumpist GOP folks last time was getting the courts, and that is not going to change with another four years of Biden. So, maybe they won't be so motivated to vote?
Fifth, the GOP is not going to learn any lessons right now about what is causing their electoral defeats. Why? Because their primary processes are still going to reward extremism, so they will still send proto-Nazis and theocrats to compete for otherwise winnable Senate seats and then lose those races. In red states, they can win those races, but in purple ones, they can't--playing to the extremist base may aid in some turnout but hurts more than it helps... at least that is how I read 2018, 2020, 2022, and now 2023.
Sixth, the Dems? Damned if I know whether they will learn the key lessons and apply them well. Biden's presidency has been a mixed bag with the media emphasizing the mistakes and the losses. If the recession still doesn't happen, if jobs remain plentiful and wages going up, the inflation narrative may fade a bit. Will they make progress on making housing more affordable? Probably not. Oh, and that foreign policy stuff? It won't matter except to various diasporas, but some of those are in key locations. So... 🤷
Oh, and a Canadian note: the Conservative Party has been plagiarizing a bunch of GOP bullshit--trans phobia, using woke as a slur, etc. I am thinking now that if the Canadian electorate is at all like the American one, these stances are going to hurt the Tories, not help. So, will Polievre snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Probably.
But that would be a prediction, and I suck at those.
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