CDSN Meets NDHQ, 2026 Edition

The lighting always sucks in this part of DND,
but this is only place we can do this.

 One of the highlights of every year is the Canadian Defence and Security Network's Summer Institute.  Ripping off SWAMOS and BtG, we organize a weeklong workshop to discuss Canadian defence and security stuff with a mixed audience--roughly one third emerging scholars, one third military folks, and one third government types.  The idea is not just to have all of us discuss and learn about these issues, but to learn how the various folks in the defence and security community think about this stuff.  That the exchanges among the three groups are as important as the stuff they hear from our speakers.  It is the hardest thing we do each year as involves lots of planning, herding academic and non-academic cats, and it is a very intense week for our CDSN team.  It is also perhaps the most rewarding thing we do, as we see the lightbulbs go off and we see connections developing.  

Almost since the start, a day at Canada's defence headquarters has been on the agenda.  It started with a couple of talks and now has grown to a full day of briefings and roundtables.  I am as amazed every year with us getting high-level speakers as our participants are amazed at the quality of my cookies.  In most years, we get a chance to speak with the Deputy Minister of Defence, who as a general rule does not do that much public speaking (DM's across the government tend to not speak up that much, which in this realm, puts them at a disadvantage vis-a-vis the Chief of Defence Staff).  I hadn't met Christiane Fox, so it was great to meet her and get her perspective.  We also met folks from the three elements/environments (what Americans call services), getting a good idea of how the Navy, Army, and Air Force folks are thinking about this moment--about the threats facing Canada, about the injection of money as Mark Carney has pushed far more spending towards defence, and, yes, the Trumpness of it all.

I kept asking the same question because I have a book chapter I need to write--what can the Canadian Armed Forces do without any American assistance.  And the answers, as one of the participants pointed out, illustrated a civ-mil divide that Phil Lagassé pointed out a while back: the military sees the moment as rhetoric and wants to continue business as usual and the civilians are identifying a fundamental break and want to operative differently.  Oh my.  Good for the chapter, bad for Canadian civil-military relations.

I must run off to our fourth day of the Institute, where one of our panels is, indeed, on civ-mil.  

 

More Threat Deflation: Hypersonic Missile Edition

 I keep hearing about the threat of hypersonic missiles, and I keep wondering how this changes things?

 My bias: I am a big believer in mutual assured destruction and a big skeptic of strategic missile defense.

Yes, countries are developing missiles that go much faster.   Does this dramatically increase the threat to North America?  I don't believe it does.  The US has not yet developed a reliable, near 100% system for defending itself against ballistic missiles, so the impact of such hypersonics is ... to hasten our deaths in a nuclear war.  We would die faster.

I have heard some folks say that Canada might get hit by Russian or Chinese hypersonics equipped with conventional warheads during a Taiwan or Baltic scenario to discourage our participation.  Let me point out some of the problems with this:

•  the most obvious is: why should either country care that much about Canadian participation in such a conflict?
• any missiles being flung at Canadian cities (which are almost all near the US) would be seen as an attack on the US.  How confident can Chinese or Russian leaders be that the U.S. would not respond upon launch with a nuclear response?  Remember, a key to nuclear deterrence is that you only need a small risk of the worst thing happening to do deter.  So, can Xi or Putin or whoever be 100% the US wouldn't fire back? 

One of the basics of the nuclear era is that offense is easier/cheaper than defense, so any effort to build up defenses will be a waste of money in an offense/defense arms race.  We are seeing this now with drones versus counter-drone technology--that the US has used up most of its anti-missile missiles and Iran has plenty more cheap drones to send at American ships and other targets.  Maybe there will be a breakthrough for a cheaper way to knock down drones.  And, of course, a few conventional drones leaking through is not a huge deal.  A few nuclear hypersonic missiles will absolutely ruin your day.

So, yes, we should not be pleased that missiles are getting faster, but it does not change the fundamental reality that has existed since the 1960s--mutual assured destruction deters nuclear war.  Does it deter conventional war?  Absolutely in Europe--Putin has not engaged in any conventional attacks despite much temptation.  Does it work in South Asia?  Kind of, sort of.  Yes, India and Pakistan have engaged in conflict, but thus far, none has escalated very far.  The two countries fought several major wars before they each had nuclear weapons. 

Anyhow, I keep seeing all kinds of threats being inflated, but the world is scary enough without exaggerating some of them.  The reality is that climate change and far right subversion of democracy are realities that are hurting people every day, and, no, the military can't help us with those.  So, let's focus on the real threats that are doing real damage, and stop fantasizing about the other stuff.