Anyhow, the folks at RAS-NSA, a Canadian defence research network asked me to speak about what the future of US relations with Canada and the world might be next year.
Here is what I said:
I have good news and bad news:
The good news is that if Biden wins, US foreign policy will mostly stay the same, the US will remain committed to NATO and NORAD and will only badger Canada a bit about 2% and such
The bad news is that if Trump wins, it will be catastrophic.
Ok, the good news is that Biden is more likely to win.
Let me explain the Trump future scenario:
For those who are younger and don’t remember Trump’s term that well, and for those wishful thinking bubble was not sufficient pop by Trump’s near wars with NK/Iran and his complete failure to manage the covid crisis, let’s remember
a) Trump largely appointed arsonists to most government agencies who were much more knowledgeable and determined than expected although not as much at DoD until the end of his term. Tillerson was an exception, Pompeo was not.
b) When those folks got disgraced sufficiently or pissed off Trump enough, he replaced them with worse people. And it always got worse, never better.
c) Trump replaced a racist Attorney General who still more or less believed in the DoJ as an independent actor with Bill Barr who used his position to protect Trump from Mueller and all the rest.
a. Except for the document case and the Jan 6th stuff, most of Trump’s crimes were public but DoJ didn’t do anything about it under Barr.
b. Trump replaced a wildly incompetent Tillerson with Pompeo, a Christian nationalist.
e) Trump delegated all responsibility to the running of the wars to the military, so they naturally escalated everywhere. He did get the US partially out of Syria by betraying the Kurds and he did start the process to get out of Afghanistan by selling out to the Taliban
a. He tried to use the US army against protestors, which ultimately caused a rift with his second SecDef and his Chairman, which led to him trying to find replacements after the election.
Ok, why will it be worse?
a) The so-called adults in the room who were actually pretty right wing are no longer there. The names being mentioned as potential DoD/CIA/State/NSC are truly horrific people
b) Trump’s primary motives are resentment and profit. He resents Trudeau and Canada greatly for taking credit for managing him and for making jokes about him at NATO meetings and for being … Canadian. We were not sufficiently deferential.
c) He views all deals he did not make as exploitative since he projects from his own attitude about deals—that he should always be ripping off his partners. So, he will want to kill NATO and NORAD.
What does this mean for Canada?
- What worked last time won’t work this time
- Canada will not have allies among Republicans in Congress—today’s GOP is different from the last one
- Trump will do stuff through extra-institutional pathways where governors and Congress will matter far less.
- 2024 may be the last meaningful election for quite some time so the usual electoral incentives may no longer apply
- Things might not be that better for Canada with Poilievre. How does Trump get along with Ted Cruz?
- On other hand, the resentment level will be re-set.
People told me that they appreciated my bluntness. It is either my weakness or my superpower. Anyhow, let's enjoy this moment of justice as it may not last. Especially with a Supreme Court with at least two pro-insurrectionists and a Chief Justice abetting them.
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