Fearing an American Invasion?

 Oh my, what I would give to live in less interesting times.  I am writing this as Trump rants at Davos, in the aftermath of a truly remarkable speech by Prime Minister Carney (which I will write about later).  I was asked yesterday by a contact on Linkedin to write about the G&M story about the Canadian Armed Forces [CAF] running models regarding a US invasion... and well, yowza.  Today, the same paper had an editorial on that topic.

Yes, US-Canadian relations are in the worst place in living memory.  No, the US is not invading.  FFS.  Sure, the Canadian military modeled this a bit.  Why?  Because that is what militaries do--they plan and they model.  If the US invaded, the CAF would not be able to stop them.  But the US is not up to occupying Canada indefinitely.  Our country is big and it is often quite cold.  An American occupation would not require occupying the entire country--just the major cities and the LOCs (lines of communication).  Both of those present tremendous challenges.

First, Canada has 37 or so million people, which would require an occupation force of ... 3.7 million or so.  The traditional ratio for successful counterinsurgency is 10 to 1.  Of course, the Canadians would not be the Taliban or the various players in Iraq--there would be little suicide terrorism.  Still, managing a large population indefinitely is not easy.  

Second, if the Americans wanted to have access to Canadian resources, it would need to protect the LOCs: roads, the rails, the powerlines connecting the two countries.  Which means a lot more personnel out there. There is only so much drones can do (and drones can be brought down).   

There is a third thing that is even more important: getting the military to do this would be hard.  It is oen thing to knock over a South American country and another to attack a very reliable ally with which the US has much in common and much history.  While the US military has obeyed illegal orders, this might be one step too far.  Of course, it takes a somewhat self-aware politician to realize this....

The big threat is not American invasion--that is a dark fantasy.  The big threat is here and real--American coercion.  Trump has used tariffs and has threatened tariffs, making Canadian goods more expensive in the US, hurting Canadian industry and costing people their jobs.  Trump has threatened to pull out of NAFTA 2.0 (also called USMCA and CUSMA).  He will push Canada via economic threats and via real policies that hurt the Canadian economy, hoping that Canada caves.  The Canadians may not be used to this pain, but Trump has activated Canadian nationalism like nothing else.  While he could try to pick at the seams via Albertan and Quebec separatism, that would require more nuance, consistency, and good policy-makers than Trump can summon.  Indeed, the separatists will be seen as allies or abetters of Trumpism, which will make a big dent in their popularity.  

So, let's not fear an American invasion and fantasize about Canadian IEDs covered in moose poop or maple syrup.  Instead, plan for and become resilient in the face of a trade war, recession, and diminished quality of living.  It will suck, but we can get through it.  My bet is more Americans get killed by ICE than Canadians get killed by the American military.  

Wow, these are dark times.  Just let's not imagine them to be darker still.