For the entire first Trump term and the second term's first year, America's allies have basically engaged in the five d's of dodgeball: dodge, dip, duck, dive, and dodge. They have tried to avoid a major break with US, seeking mostly to soothe Trump's ego. This week may mark the end of that. First, there is the news of a number of European countries loudly participating in a Danish military exercise in and near Greenland. Second, Canada just made a deal with China over electric vehicles and canola oil. These are, as the literature I read long ago and am far from an expert in would say, costly signals. Let me explain.
In international relations, talk is mostly cheap (although folks do argue cheap talk also matters). How do we know a country is really committing to a course of action? They engage in a costly signal--they do something that hurts themselves or risks real costs. Economic sanctions are often not very costly signals because they signal precisely that a country is not willing to put their own people on the line. Drone strikes do the same kind of thing, which is why boots on the ground is always seen as so important--they are credible signals.
In these two cases, the actors are risking seriously Trump reactions--they aren't disguising what they are doing. They may have other interests as well, but they are clearly sticking it to Trump.
First, let's discuss Greenland. Sure, most of the Euro troops heading there for exercises may be part of decisions made long before Trump's latest threats, so this may not be a deliberate step this week to create a tripwire to deter American aggression. But it sure looks like that, doesn't it? That these countries are loudly sending these troops, that they are signalling that they are putting their troops bodies in the way is a very loud signal that they don't mind offending Trump. Given all the work done previously to avoid so openly defying and seeking to deny Trump (see the five para NATO summit communique last summer as key example and the 5% bullshit), this is a huge turn for the Europeans.
Why now? Maybe they are looking at the US domestic stuff and Venezuela and realizing that Trump is actually serious about Greenland despite the utter stupidity of it all. Maybe the Danes are terrific diplomats who have used every means at their disposal to get the Europeans on side. Maybe the 1938 resonance is getting too strong. Maybe the constant references in the US involvement in Ukraine negotiations of NATO and the US as two separate actors flipped a switch. I am guessing it is because they understand that the moment has come--if Trump aggresses against a NATO member's territory, the alliance is done. Best to avert that outcome for however long, and maybe NATO's fate will be determined a bit further down the road.
Second, let's get to Canada-China. People have been critical of Mark Carney betraying his Elbow's Up campaign promise to fight hard against Trump's coercive tactics and bombastic threats that challenge Canada's very identity. Well, there are few things that are more Elbow's Up than making a deal with China over EVs. One key component of the very undisciplined, hardly a doctrine Donald Doctrine is to keep China out of North American markets. So, this is very much in the face of Trump. And it is a risky as hell step because the Chinese are shitty trading partners* with whom Canada has had a very fraught relationship. But diversifying markets when the biggest trading partner is threatening to throw away the key trade agreement becomes more than just a priority but a mission. Some will say that this will force Trump to toss away NAFTA 2.0 (USMCA or CUSMA or whatever you want to call it). My take: if someone is punching you in the face whether you accede to their demands or not, then you might as well take the pain and do what is best for yourself.
The other side of costly signals is restraint. For coercive diplomacy to work, you have to keep both sides of your promises--to do the painful thing if the other side doesn't do what you want AND to refrain from doing that thing if the other side does what you want. Trump's behavior was going to lead to these kinds of responses because he never restrained, only escalated. Kept punching the Europeans and Canadians in the face even as they tried to go along with his unnecessary and unreasonable demands.
That apparently ended this week.
Next steps? Oh my. I am just glad I closed most of my US dollar accounts...
* I worry about giving into China's coercive diplomacy as well, but at least China is likely to keep a promise for more than a few hours.
No comments:
Post a Comment