Today was our first day of briefings in Manila. Our small team of two DND Public Affairs people, me, and a think tanker joined a group of Colonels/Navy Captains from the Canadian and other armed forces as well as civilians. That group is from the Canadian Forces College as they run an extensive end-of-the-term trip. The group hit Japan first and will be going to other places out here after they leave us.
We met with Canadian embassy folks as well as some Filipino officials. Since the events were under Chatham House Rule, I can't attribute anything, but I will say the ambassador here is super sharp and not just because he has some Philly experience.
First, some basic stuff that is politically important:
- about 1 million Canadians are of Filipino descent, so there are significant ties. Second largest source of foreign students for Canada
- federal/presidential system based on the American model but with single 6 year terms for the President. That the entire upper layers of the govt come and go with Presidents is very American.
- Very much family dynastic politics. President is Ferdinand Marcos Jr, VP is Sarah Duterte, daughter of previous president who was quote autocratic. And these two dynasties do not like each other. The next electionin 2028 will be .... interesting.
- seven times more water territory than land mass, 60% live on the coast, 36km of coastline, 25% of world's martime workforce
- most disaster prone country in the world--earthquakes, volcanoes, super typhoons. Oh my. This has apparently led to some resiliency with whole of society responses when disaster strikes.
- population is about 3x Canada's
Second, it is a great/sad example of the third order consequences of the Iran war. The Philippines gets 90% or more of its energy from outside the country, so the oil crisis induced by Trump's war has made a big impact. Not just making it more expensive to travel, making food hard to grow (fertilizer), etc, but their Navy and Coast Guard can't operate as much. Which means China has far more latitude to mess around in the region. And Russia is now selling oil here. So, well done, Donnie. Always the master strategist. Oh and 2.5 million Filipinos are in harm's way in the Gulf.
Third, the Philippines has become the focal point of Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy. It has Canada's second largest embassy, mostly because it is the regional hub for various diplomatic admin stuff, but still. It is now visited 4x a year or so by Canadian naval vessels (given how much stress the navy is under with their very old ships, this is a big deal).
Fourth, much was made of like-mindedness. Former colony, speaks English, democracy, trade, open society, both live near unreliable behemoth.
Fifth, apparently Filipinos consume social media more than any other country, spending 8 hours a day, mostly via facebook--2+ fb accounts per person. Lots of misinformation/disinformation from China and from the competing parties.
Sixth, Canada is quite visible and appreciated here. One reason: Canada handed over a system that helps detect "dark vessels." This is a system for monitoring illegal fishing, but, well, the Filipinos are using it for much better situational awareness of lots of folks in their waters. A very big deal that was low cost but huge impact.
Additional observations:
Many senior policy positions are occupied by retired senior military officers (I have no idea what effect this has, but as a civ-mil person, I couldn't help but notice). It was explained that the military is most meritocratic part of society
The general military stance has shifted from fighting rebellions/terrorist groups (Abu Sayef) to territorial defense--China. But one person said the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea as they call it here is already lost.
More after another day of briefings!
4 comments:
Just as Japan had to attack the Philippines to get to Indonesia (Dutch East Indies at the time) at the start of the Pacific War, China would have to clear its flank when attacking Taiwan.
I don't quite follow the logic.
To attack the Dutch East Indies Japan had to pass the full length of the Philippines which at the time was a US colony. From Luzon in the Philippines it is approximately 395km north to the mainland of Taiwan There are a few piddling islands belonging to both in-between but no overlap.1Taiwan lies roughly 200km directly across from mainland China if we ignore those 2 or 3 stupid little Taiwanese islands right on the mainland coast.
I find it difficult to think that China would gratuitously start a second front with another country in what would be a domestic dispute. Actually, I cannot see China invading. Given evolving trade and travel patterns and the insane behaviour of the USA, I can see Taiwan trying for a better deal than Hong Kong but similar. And China is in no hurry. It can and does set long–term goals and policies.
The Japanese could have gone around the Philippines, but their lines of communication would have been vulnerable to American forces based in the Philippines.
The piddly islands you describe are important to the Philippines and I am guessing to the Chinese--that the strait up there is narrow enough that China would need to worry about that flank. Not that they would repeat what the Japanese did, sorry if I conveyed that, but would need to do some preemption to take out air/sea forces in the area. A Taiwan scenario would implicate both Japan and the Philippines and both countries are expecting that. Of course, China could try other forms of coercion and will likely do so, but domestic nationalism/bad economy may push Xi into doing something stupid.
The Japanese could have gone around the Philippines, but their lines of communication would have been vulnerable to American forces based in the Philippines.
That was the point I was rather clumsily trying to make.
I can see that the Philippines and Japan would be on heightened alert but I, absent US warmongering, I cannot see China wanting to do anything to either nation in a dispute with Taiwan. If anything I'd expect China would be trying to sooth anxieties.
the last thing China is doing here is soothing anxieties. They are escalating their confrontations with the Philippines and others.
Post a Comment