Yoda Was Right

 I don't remember all of my dreams, but last night, I had one that stuck with me.  I was at some kind of event where the media* were egging on a crowd, using fear to get the
m more and more angry.  I popped out of a car, ran over, and started to try to jolly the crowd out of their fearful and angry mood.  Both within the dream and after I woke up, I thought about fear and anger, the moment, we are in and two bits of pop culture.

The first bit was, of course, Yoda instructing Luke that fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering.  The second bit was in Ghostbusters (the second one, I think) where a toxic slime was getting increasingly powerful and nasty from the hate pulsing through NY, and they used humor and laughter to fight it.

The moment we are in is full of anger and is outraging.  Trump and the "populists" around the world have used fear, anger, and resentment to direct hate at the vulnerable (not just trans people, but they are the poster people for this dynamic these days) to get into power and deflect blame for their failures.  So much of what Trump and his people have done has been cruel and has inflicted much suffering in the US and around the world with Iranian kids being the latest to pay the price.  

Watching all of this unnecessary pain and suffering--the kids sent to American concentration camps or killed by American and Israeli bombs--causes a backlash of hate and anger. But I don't think anger is going to get us out of this.

One of the best ways to fight the bullying, the posturing, the Pete Hegsething is to mock them, make fun of them, to use satire, parody, and any other comic device to make clear that these poseurs are beneath contempt.  Laughter may not always be the best medicine, but when punching up, it causes less collateral damage and mostly does not empower the worst people.  

My experience at the fall's No Kings protest was one of joy and community and laughter, as people had funny signs, mocking the autocrats and the haters.  Yes, we need to be serious about the stakes here, and those planning protests must be deliberate and careful as any violence will be used as an excuse to escalate.  But, as those on the side of light always argue, let's not give into the hate.  Sure, Stephen Miller is contemptible and should be punished and ostracized, but let's not become him.  

Of course, if I am wrong, Yoda also said: best teacher failure is. 

 

* I don't blame the legit media although the dynamic of where it bleeds, it leads does create more fear--that there is actually less crime than people think and less crime than there used to be.  

Rooted for Shirking, Wrong Again

I had a good conversation yesterday at the ISA with a former student as we argued a basic point--does it matter to the individual Customs Border Protection agent whether Congress is not engaged in oversight.  This conversation reminded me how often I am wrong.... alas.

I argued  last month that one hope in the Trump era is that the various agencies would shirk--would do less than what Trump wanted, would perhaps undermine his policies by implementing them in ways that Trump/President Bannon didn't intend.  It turns out that it probably depends on the agencies and the agents more than I speculated.

My original post was about the CIA, which had been attacked by Trump and might just have heaps of people who see Trump as a threat to the US.  What we can learn from the immigration fiascoes is that the ICE/CBP people might have attitudes,  dispositions, preferences that either align well with Trump or are more enthusiastic. 

When the first immigration ban came down, it was a mess, which gave agents more discretion to do more or less.  That they could interpret the guidance that was poorly developed however they wanted. And what did they do?  They did more: during that hectic weekend and since, they have prevented not just Muslims from the seven key countries from entering the US, but despite agreements between Trump and Trudeau and Trump and the UK, the CBP and associates have kept out Canadian and British Muslims.

How does this make sense in a principal-agent framework?  That these folks have two principals (President and Congress). The first has pretty much told them via his speeches and tweets that he would not mind if these agents exceed their authority.   The second, Congress, has shown no interest in investigating what went wrong.  I argued with my student that Congress could matter if one could imagine that it would do oversight--hold hearings about what happened, call to testify individual officials up and down the chain of command in DHS, and maybe even move money around to punish those offices that transgressed.  OK, STOP LAUGHING--it could happen.  Ok, hardly likely, especially with key Congress people making it clear that there will be no oversight over the Trump admin--just ask Jason Chaffetz, head of the House Oversight Committee.

The argument with my student was whether the folks on the ground care about Congressional oversight.  I think so--based on my experience hanging out with the officers in the Pentagon, but I could be wrong.  Right now, it does not matter, since the GOP have no intention of overseeing anything.

The larger point is that shirking can mean agents do more or less, so in this time of less oversight, the question is really about agents and their dispositions.   Which means agent selection and self-selection matter a great deal.  And that probably is bad news with many agencies populated by people who might actually have some enthusiasm for Trump's agenda, such as the FBI, ATF, ICE, and other law enforcement.  It may be that the foreign policy types--CIA, State, US military (sort of)--might be opposed to Trump's bad ideas, but, alas, it looks like the forces of repression may just be very enthusiastic.  Not good at all.

The Darkest Timeline

I was asked whether I can/should be reassuring people about Trump, and my answer was essentially "hells no!"  I spent last summer and fall reassuring people that Trump would not win.  I, of course, was very wrong. One reason why I was wrong is that I thought that a Trump presidency was so obviously, so predictably going to be a multidimensional disaster that enough responsible Republicans would vote for Hillary Clinton.

My recent move was to deny that I was surprised by whatever Trump was doing--that he long ago entered the Tyson zone so anything could happen and shouldn't shock us.  I would say that I was not surprised but appalled by the latest moves.  Well, four or so days into the Trump Administration, and I have to drop that stance.  Why? Because my imagination is simply not that good.  Trump keeps on making moves that are even worse than I could have imagined.  The latest?  Putting into a key immigration post the guy who ran FAIR, which is anything but, an anti-immigration group.  It is kind of like putting the KKK in charge of Civil Rights.  Oh wait, Trump kind of did that by putting pal of the KKK, Jeff Sessions as Attorney General.

It is simply bad and going to get worse for pretty much everyone.  The question is becoming: is this temporary or permanent?  With Trump playing up mythical voter fraud, i.e., #voterfraudfraud, plus Sessions as AG, I worry a great deal about whether the rules will be changed to prevent the Democrats from winning.  That is imaginable.  What else is on the table?  Protectionist trade wars are already in play.  Defaulting on the debt?  Sure. Why not?  We already know that NATO's future is up for grabs.

So, sure, let's be enheartened by the activism of the past weekend and the energy going forward.  But let's not kid ourselves.  With the GOP not blocking Trump's pro-Russia appointment (Tillerson at State) and getting the most extreme policies they have preferred, with the Democrats facing difficult decisions about which things to block (hint: Sessions, ACA repeal, next SCOTUS choice, cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid), with the media being overwhelmed by the Distributed Denial of Service attack that is the Trump Administration (where to focus?), and with the domination of Steve Bannon in the White House, I have realized that:

My imagination is simply not dark enough.

 It is going to get worse.  While we must resist and find glimmers of hope (rebellions are built on hope), we have to be realistic.  Yes, non-violent resistance can work, but it takes time, and there is, alas, no inevitability to victory.  We can keep saying that this is going to last only four years, but with Trump's willingness to break rules and norms, we cannot even be assured of that.

We must avoid resting our hopes of fragile reeds. Foreigners kept telling me that campaign promises are one thing, but governing is another.  Oops, broken reed.  The GOP will impeach Trump eventually.  Oops, broken reed.  Trump is just going to delegate, and his son-in-law is pretty reasonable.  Oops, broken reed.  No, we must put our hopes and plans on more solid foundations--that mobilization can work at the local level, that there are actually some limits to federal power, that the courts (in the short term) are still pretty reasonable, that the media is realizing that these are not normal times (NYT and Jake Tapper calling out voterfraudfraud for what it is), and that the government is full of people who may find ways to resist.

Again, I don't want to be too pessimistic, but the time for cautious optimism is past, and the time to prepare for the worst is here.

Despair a Bit But Then Forward, Always Forward

I got kind of silly and sentimental and sad and then bounced back, as I tweeted my emotions in the face of the awful event awaiting us this day.  So, some music, some memes and some sanctimonious advice that is easy for someone living beyond the wall.

It started with FB reminded me that eight years ago, my status was:

is proud to be an American abroad, rather than embarrassed.

Which means I am super-embarassed now.

Anyhow, that led me to this series of tweets:

Encouraging Signs

Just as we see reports that the Trump agenda is going to be as awful as one can imagine, gutting all kinds of government agencies and fulfilling the wishes of the far right dreams, I can't help but be impressed with the signs of resistance.  I have never seen my friends and family more politically mobilized with so many going to DC for the big protest or showing up elsewhere.

People get it--the stakes are high.  The very future of pretty much everything is up for grabs.  That is alarming and awful. But resist we can and we must.  Non-violently, of course, because it is both right and more effective.  Politicians, even Republicans, do respond when pressured.  We have seen some signs of it already, as mobilization around defending Obamacare has some GOP members ducking out of meetings and Trump making promises that directly contradict Paul Ryan. 

The Democratic Senators are sharpening their teeth on the most poorly qualified cabinet appointees in history.  I don't know if they can block any of these appointments, but there is a big difference between Trump and the GOP in the Senate--some of those in the latter do have some shame left and they may even have the national interest in mind from time to time.  Tillerson will be a key test--do the Republicans fear Trump or do they care about the United States?  I have no faith in Rubio to stick to a position.

Anyhow, the point is that we, the majority of Americans who did not vote for Trump, need to resist passionately, consistently, strategically, persuasively and with great perseverance.  It is easy to say from my perch above the Wall (maybe not a joke in the near future), but I am trying to figure out what I can do.

Some ideas?

1. I am no longer going to blamecast about the election anymore.  That is over--time to move on and fight alongside the Sanders folks and the neverTrump Republicans.  We can find common cause on some issues, if not on everything.  
2. I will, of course, donate money to groups that fight Trump, especially those that fight for voting rights as we need to preserve the future.
3. I will use whatever outlet I can to keep talking about the dangers of Trump and his team of arsonists (the theme of this administration is burning down the US govt and the international order).  Talk is cheap, but we need to keep explaining and shining a light, as it may help to mobilize people here and there.  And I will share here any ideas I get about what folks can do.
4. I will try to be less mad and more kind.  We need to foster a wider community of support, to build bridges among people and support those who are at risk.  This new government is going to try to divide us, using hate and fear.  We cannot fight that with more hate and fear. They aim to tear down civil society.  We need to build it up, to create a sense of us that is broad, inclusive and powerful.  The "we go high, they go low" thing sounds naive, but, first, I am not going to argue with Michelle Obama, and second, it is basic Moneyball--we need to focus on our comparative advantages, and mobilizing hate ain't one of them.

What else can I do?  What else should we do?  Let me know as we need ideas as much as we need patience, passion, and all the rest. 

To all those about to march,  I hope your feet hold up, that the weather is good, that you develop new friends, that you do not face violence from counter-protestors or the police, and that you realize that you are already making a difference.