Late Night Gets Interesting

Losing sleep watching some of this stuff. But the willingness of various folks to be brutal on TV is just highly entertaining.

See this for both a Jimmy Kimmel appearance on Leno's show that is funny and painful and for an interesting take on this stuff.

And Bill Simmons tweeted this old NYT piece, where Leno blasts NBC in 1992 for treating him as Conan is being treated now.

"NBC is like a guy with two girlfriends who doesn't know which one he's going to marry on Jan. 15," Mr. Leno said [in 1992]. "And the longer you wait, the madder they both get."

"It's a tricky situation," Mr. Leno said [in 1992]. "Dave is truly a star and terrific, and this is a terrible position NBC is in. But fragging your own soldier doesn't make any sense to me."

So, who is the soldier getting fragged here, Jay?


Of course, Jay Leno is not the bad guy here. Ok, he sort of is, as he had decided to walk away and then changed his mind, starting this train wreck.  But the NBC bosses are the bigger bad guys because they saw a way to make some money for the network by transforming into a second class network--run Jay at 10pm and give up competing with the other networks (and screw the affiliates).  But why should TV execs be any different from banking or auto execs.

Great power seems not to lead to great thinking.  Forget about great responsibility.

More Evidence That Direct Democracy is Bad

Slate asked its readers about ideas for improving airline security.  Some responses:

The ideas our panel looked over ranged from the invasive (make everyone put on government-issued pajamas and take a tranquillizer) to the uncomfortable (passengers must fly commando). A surprising number of people suggested strapping passengers down and stuffing them sardine-style into the plane, which makes us wonder whether they ever plan to fly themselves. One reader advocated crowdsourcing the problem: getting bored passengers to watch security footage and flag anyone who looks suspicious.

Um, double yuck.  I wonder how many of these suggestions come from people who fly more than once a decade?  The last one might be ok, except I doubt that people will use their best judgment about what counts as suspicious.

The top four entries:
"Joyce Hackett of New York believes that America's airports should take their cues from Berlin. "Tegel Airport is built like a big ring—planes on the outside, drivers and parking in the middle," she writes. "Its individually secured gates make it both the most efficient and the most security-effective airport I've experienced." The judges liked Hackett's proposal to build a separate security area for each gate and screen passengers before they enter the airport."

• I experienced this last summer.  Seems very labor intensive.  I didn't like it, but then again, I was not really sure what was going on.  It also meant poor food choices once you get close to the gates.  

"Marianne Nassef of Abilene, Texas, proposes stopping potential terrorists before they even get to the airport. "Nothing gets denied faster than a credit card," Nassef reasons. Going by her plan, anyone on a no-fly list would be denied the right to purchase a ticket. Judges pointed out that the bad guys are likely to catch on and work around the system, but at least this would throw up a stumbling block."

• Given that the NYT had an article today about an eight yearold that has been trying to get off the list for the past five years or so, I am not so sure this makes a great deal of sense.  Still, this moves a key element of the process away from the airport, and that has to be a good thing.

"Neil Stelzner of Santa Monica, Calif., and Phil Nettl of South Brunswick, N.J., would like to see G-men manning our airports. "They are dedicated, educated, and trained in law enforcement and have a desire to excel at their jobs," Stelzner and Nettl explain. The judges agreed that TSA agents are the last line of defense against would-be terrorists, and employing actual law-enforcement agents would mean having a security force that's committed to law enforcement. Added bonus: FBI trainees would get invaluable experience working with the public."

• Hmmm, this sounds interesting, but I am not sure how much of a difference it will make.

Benton Love of Houston received top marks from the judges for proposing a system of constant tests for TSA workers. Love advocates a carrot/stick approach: Screeners would be paid a bonus for each federal agent they caught trying to sneak a dummy bomb through security and docked for each one they let through. Judges liked the competitive spirit of the idea (TSA vs. the feds!) and the incentive factor, which would inject some needed energy into screeners. One judge pointed out that drills are a part of our airport security today, but efforts along these lines need to be doubled.

• This could become a reality tv show that raises money for the government and/or airlines!  

The reality is that our airport security is actually not bad.  We overreact after an incident, but the reality is that our planes are relatively secure, especially since we have now heaps of vigilant eyes (the other passengers).   We cannot reach perfection.  We accept risks when we drive.  We cannot eliminate risk, but we can mitigate it.  We can manage it.  Removing all discretion is probably not the way to go--airlines should let 8 year old kids on watch lists board without much hassle. 

What is my idea for improving airport security?  Better pay, training for the security folks and hiring more of them.  This is a jobs program I could believe in.

Ranting Racists

I guess that the disaster in Haiti is so bad that it really does not matter that much that Pat Robertson has used the event to gain renewed attention for his wacky racist views.  He blames the Haitians for their mythical pact with the Devil long ago.  Forgetting for a second that this is based not on reality but on American racist myths about Haiti, what does that say about Pat Robertson's God?  That today's Christian Haitians, who worship Jesus, are condemned to God's wrath today for the supposedly pagan behavior of centuries ago?  I am not a Christian of any kind (and to be clear, for Christians of a certain stripe, all other Christians do not really count, and I would bet that Pat is in that camp).

Tragically, many evangelical Christians in Haiti may actually, in their own extreme confusion and suffering and desperation, believe that God is punishing them.

Oops, apparently there are plenty of Christians that fit into Robertson's definition that are suffering today.  What kind of God is that?   Is this really a message that is likely to increase market share?  One could say that God works in mysterious ways, but to blame the people paying such a high price for the sin of being born in Haiti (a high price even before this week) is, well, inhumane. 

But then again, this is nothing new.  Pat Robertson is eager to place blame in strange places after bad things happen.  He joined Jerry Falwell in blaming the ACLU, gays and lesbians, abortionists, and others for 9/11


I guess I will always be astounded that folks like this get the attention they do.  And I guess I am abetting in this crime. 

I Don't Understand North Korea

But Fred Kaplan does.  Apparently, the latest NK ploy is to exclude South Korea from the talks.  Kaplan does a great job of laying out the various twists and turns in all of this, at least as far as I can tell.

In an excellent article in the November/December 2009 issue of Foreign Affairs, Andrei Lankov, a Russian émigré who teaches history at Kookmin University in Seoul, calls this approach "subversive engagement." The Pyongyang regime, Lankov writes, is "remarkably immune to outside pressure." But it's potentially quite vulnerable to "radical transformation" from within, if enough well-placed North Koreans are exposed to—and thus realize the possibilities of—attractive alternatives to their system.

The Present and Future of Computers

At the turn of the millennium, PCs were still seen mainly as business tools—a computer was something you used at the office or for schoolwork, not to goof off. Today PCs are the world's most powerful procrastination machines. (Slate, with the right dose of snark)

As this blog proves only too well.

Indeed, the boom in "netbook" computers—the tiny, cheap machines that dominated the sales charts in 2008 and early 2009—was really an expression of customers' interest in second PCs. A netbook's tiny keyboard and low processing power makes it relatively useless for work but ideal for goofing off—surfing Facebook from the couch or watching Hulu in bed.

I guess second per person, as we are already reaching the reality of people having multiple computers in their houses--at least one for the adults and one for the kid(s), if not one per person (so far, no computer apps for dogs, or are there?)

What I'm looking for is a big-screen iPhone—it won't make calls, but it'll be the best device in the world for reading the New York Times online.

Oh my!

If It Will Please the Court? Football's Ironic Lack of Competition

Apparently not.  The National Football League is in front of the US Supreme Court because a clothing manufacturer is upset about restraint of trade--that the NFL can enforce clothing regs that limit the ability of non-preferred producers to sell their products to individual teams.  The issue at stake is whether the League is one business or 32 -- each team as a separate business.

So, this post seems both surprised and unsurprised that the Justices are baseball fans and largely ignorant of football.  Apparently, those with higher educations are less likely to be football fans.  Well, as my wife will attest each weekend in January, I am an outlier.  Perhaps the study did not control for age, as baseball is more popular with the older folks.

Anyhow, some of the Justices do ask informed questions (Kennedy asks whether protecting the QB more provides a competitive advantage that works against running teams, for instance).  Indeed:

"So … you are seeking through this ruling what you haven't gotten from Congress: an absolute bar to an antitrust claim?" she (Sotomayor) asks.
Levy denies that's his game, but it seems clear that Sotomayor is right. The NFL—as well as the NBA and NHL, both of which filed amicus briefs in support of their football counterpart—wants what Major League Baseball has: a broad antitrust exemption. When Scalia asks whether it would be anti-competitive for teams to fix the prices at which franchises can be sold, Levy says probably not. That feeds into everyone's fears about what kind of nefarious schemes the NFL would concoct with a favorable ruling.

 Turns out these eggheads are pretty damn smart.  The snarkiness of Slate, which I enjoy so much, seems to get in the way of what is, otherwise, an interesting case.

The irony I wanted to see some snarkiness about is: the football prides itself on competitition--that on any given Sunday, any team can win.  Upsets happen all the time, and the possibility is not just good for Vegas but for the league.  Yet the NFL does not want competition in the apparel side of the business.  Snark on that one, Slate.  If that makes any sense.

Continuing A Grand Tradition of Hypocrisy

States that have enacted various limitations on gay marriage have seen their divorce rates go up.  So much for family values.  This should not be that surprising, as states with death penalties have more violence than those that do not.  States with supposedly high moral character (as represented by religiosity especially of a certain kind) tend to have more teenage pregnancy, more crime, more stuff that would seem to suggest significant compromises in their values.  Of course, uber-religious folks could claim that all of the bad stuff is being done by the immoral minority, but it still challenges the widely held view that places like New York, Boston and other centers of iniquity are just that.  Ooops.

Great Moments in Graduate Student Life

And yet, after two decades of the The Simpsons, we still get tons of applications to our grad programs and I have to write tons of letters of recommendations for our undergrads.

and if you think law school is a better option, lil' Steve can tell you otherwise.

Reviewing BoB

As readers of my blog probably know by now, I am a fan of Bill Simmons, ESPN's Sports Guy.  I am not a basketball fan nor do I play it particularly well (as my daughter learned when she sought to make the school's team).   Yet, I asked for his Book of Basketball to be a gift this holiday season.  Why?  Because of the author more than the topic. 

I like Simmons for a variety of reasons, but mostly because he approaches sports like I approach international relations--with a passion and via the application of pop culture analogies.  He is about five years younger than me, so most of his references play quite well (Karate Kid to name a very frequent one) with me.  And he is exemplar of what one can do with a Poli Sci degree.

Anyhow, I read his book and enjoyed it immensely, although he admitted himself in one of his many, many footnotes (and, of course, the academic in me loves the explanatory/elaboratory/extraneous additions at the bottom of the page) that he not only had a Boogie Nights reference quota, but that he was exceeding it.  In 700 pages, there is just a smidge of excess.  But given that I am not a fan of basketball, it says something that I greatly enjoyed the book and learned a great deal.

Spoilers?! Below:

Snap, Crackle, Pop: Late Night Gets Interesting [Updated]

In the role of Snap, Conan O'Brien:

It was my mistaken belief that, like my predecessor, I would have the benefit of some time and, just as important, some degree of ratings support from the prime-time schedule. Building a lasting audience at 11:30 is impossible without both.

I guess Fox moves next?

But now we have another wonderful illustration of path dependence--that making a decision constrains options down the road--that some roads are, indeed, ruled out.

Update:  Crackle:

Shirts vs. Skins

Onion has an incredibly cynical but brutally accurate fake news column today:

Afghan Warlord Not Sure Which Side He Feels Like Helping Today

Afghanistan has notably been likened to a pickup basketball game (referenced at a workshop, I am forgetting the exact citation at the moment).  Teams change frequently with few permanent loyalties.  And the Onion has gotten this one nailed.

I Am Shocked That There is Gambling at Rick's!

Which is more surprising: that Mark McGwire did steroids or that:

Mark McGwire’s apologetic interview with Bob Costas was the culmination of a carefully planned media strategy. (NYT)

Of course, he is still probably deceiving others and himself:

“I don’t want to use it as a crutch, but there was no drug testing. I didn’t use it for strength. I used it to help me recover from injuries.”

Sure, he didn't bulk up at all (insert sarcasm icon here).  And he claims he would have probably broken the season HR record without it.  Sure.  Whatever he says.

Still, I have been re-thinking my stance on the steroids boys and the Hall of Fame.  While they cheated and broke the law, the league looked the other way as they needed distractions from the reent labor strife.  And there are plenty of people who got in the Hall despite taking amphetamines, throwing spitballs, and/or taking advantage of segregation.  So, I am not quite as convinced that McGwire, Bonds, and the others should be kept out of the Hall.

I guess one question we can ponder but probably cannot decisively answer is how much of a difference the performance enhancing drugs made.  For Bonds, it seems to have meant that an already HoF-worthy career (several early MVP seasons, a career of blending speed and power) became an astonishing one with record-breaking seasons towards the end.  For McGwire, it might have mean moving from being a one-trick pony (home runs) to being the dominant two-trick pony (plus walks).

Of course, the best way to figure these kinds of things out is to write a 700 page book or so that re-invents the Hall of Fame, a la Bill Simmons (a book I just finished and will review later today).

Oh, and I am still opposed to the admission of Pete Rose.  While PEDs might have been tolerated, gambling on games has not been since the Black Sox scandal, so Rose has only his own demons to blame.

Re-Boot This!?

So, Sam Raimi, you have done a great job with our most beloved character, so what shall we do next?  Oh yeah, ditch you and your Spider-man, too.   Instead, a gritty new Spider-man.  Because when I think of Spider-man, I think of dark and gritty.  Yuck!  I am seriously disappointed--the Spider-man in the first two movies was the perfect realization of the comic book.  The third was ok, but points to how bad a new re-boot is likely to be.  Good thing we will always have the Goblin and Doc Ock fighting Spidey in the first couple of movies on DVD.

Reasoned Thinking on Overreacting to Terrorism

See Lynch, reasonable as always.
See an editorial in the Washington Post, reasonable as an exception.

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself, someone once said (yes, Mom, I know it was FDR).  And overreacting is exactly that--too much. 

But politically, it is understandable.  Known the intel trade as CYA-syndrome (cover your ass).

Perhaps Obama's exerting leadership here might just make a difference.

Teasing Steve Saideman

At the weekly ultimate game, my teammates teased me about how my style of play was neatly exemplified by the Cardinals/Packers game.  Whether that means high scoring with heaps of long passes or completely absent defense, I can let you guess.

No, I Don't Want More Power!

Not everybody wants independence or even just more authority over one's own affairs. Two French departments (ex/pseudo/quasi-colonies), Martinique and French Guiana, voted in referendums against more autonomy.  The former had 80% opposing more autonomy and in the latter 70% voted against.  The Quebec separatists would love to have that kind of enthusiasm.  Well, for independence rather than against, but this is some serious consensus for opting to keep the status quo. 

"I would like a change, but I don't think we are ready yet. I don't trust the people who lead the regional council, " Jacqueline Manger told the Associated Press news agency.

And just to tweak the folks in Quebec, well, this same concern might just be one reason why two referendums have failed here.  Of course, that could start a new round of our favorite game--who is more corrupt/incompetent--the federal government or Quebec?  You can guess where I would place my bets.






[HT to Chris Chiego, a current UCSD grad student for his tweat on this]

Ask the Reader: CD's as Car Decorations?

On the way to and from dropping off my daughter at school, I noticed more than a couple of cars having CD's hanging on strings from the rear view mirrors.  To borrow from Seinfeld, what is the deal with that? 
Could it be:

• that people have an emergency CD handy in case the radio is glutted with awful music (Wham, Duran Duran, Tragically Suck, etc.)?
• that people carry around their backup disk at all times in case their hard drive crashes or is stolen?
• that they hope to blind potential pursuers with multicolored reflections?
• that they hope to hypnotize passengers while the CD sways back and forth?
• that they can yank it off the thread and throw it at a zombie?
  

SNL Update: Better in 2010?

They didn't follow my advice (they did do a Chuck as financial advisor sketch!), but Barkley carried the show pretty well, with a mix of material.  Chuck's delivery was uneven, but he had a better monologue that any host since Taylor Swift.  I even liked the MacGruber sketches.  And you?


oh, and what could have been?

Cost of the On-going Wars

See this op-ed and art for an illustration of the lives lost in Afghanistan by the outsiders.  It really does not make it to clear, except that the Brits and Canadians have paid the biggest price, except for the US.  It is also kind of strange to see (although not terribly surprising) to see Poland and Denmark (probably now exceeding in per capita casualties) separated from the residual category, whereas the Dutch are not.

I would say that the form of the figure tends to obscure more than it reveals, though.  Lots of stuff crammed into one page.

For the original data that is very useful, go to http://icasualties.org/.

What Can You Do with a BA in Poli Sci?

Listening to another Fresh Air podcast today, this one on the kidnapping industry, and it informed me of yet another career for political science majors (forget about English majors--it sucks to be you):

Kidnapper! 
So, we can add that to Sports Guy.po