Monday, July 18, 2016

American Politics in Two Pictures

 Why do the two parties behave so differently?  Will things change much?  Well, if these two pictures represent the present and future of the two parties, then yowza.

 Nearly entirely white for the GOP, incredibly diverse for the Democrats.  Sure, Trump is a friend of white supremacists, but if that pic is a semi-accurate depiction of the GOP base, then any candidate is going to play to whites.  Indeed, all of them will, and will try to compete to be the best representative of white people--ethnic outbidding.

The Democrats did have a white set of candidates, but they tried to appeal to non-whites, and the winner of the nomination was the one who was more appealing to minorities.  In future primaries, expect to see Democratic candidates continue to say "stronger together," "build bridges" and all that.  It is not just good values (yes, racism is wrong), but good politics for the Democrats.

The GOP are caught in a trap--if they start appealing for real to non-whites, they will lose significant parts of their base.  But if they do not, then they will lose elections as the country is increasingly diverse.  How to square that circle?  Voterfraudfraud--deny the right to vote to non-whites.

My guess is that whoever HRC appoints to the Supreme Court will be less enthused about restricting the franchise.  Which will mean that the GOP will be denied its primary tool for managing to be a white party in a diverse country.

What next for the GOP?  Damned if I know.  The party elites did realize after 2008 and 2012 that the party had to broaden its appeal, and yet it is here, with a friend of white supremacists, relying heavily not on dogwhistles but air horns of racism, xenophobia, misogyny, homophobia, etc.  There is a learning curve, but the party's demographics provide disincentives.  I doubt we will see much change in 2020, although the winning candidate might not be quite as clear about their racist appeals than Trump.  That would be hard to do--be more racist than Trump.

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