Friday, November 4, 2016

My Prediction for Posterity

I have been saying that HRC will win by 5% and get 300 Electoral Votes.  Here's my math on the latter:

Click the map to create your own at
Even if HRC loses Florida and NC, she would still have enough to win.  I trust her Get Out the Vote game, her data analyses, her organization, and Trump's complete absence of all of that.  Plus HRC has strong surrogates, Trump has his hate going for him.

I think HRC's secret weapon are disabled voters and their families--that they are not addressed in polls, but they are a very large group (60 million!), one with which HRC has both a positive record over time and positive policies, and Trump's stunning lack of empathy.  I also think the polls undercount Latinos and younger voters.

Anyhow, folks will  have other priorities if Trump wins, but this is out there so that you can criticize me if I am wrong.  But I will not be.


Anonymous said...

Shade Iowa red and your map's what GOP and Dem internals are saying. Drew Linzer, the most accurate public modeller of 2012 and 2014, has her at 323.

The fact that we're *still* talking about Georgia carries unreported significance. She'll be the closest a Northern liberal will come to split the Solid South in two.

L'il Steve said...

I think I'll wait a day or two for my official prediction, but it is going to be damn similar. My expertise and experience (as opposed to my gut) tells me polling error is going to work in Hillary's favor and 4-5 nationally, rather than the 3 in current averages. I suspect Hispanics, in particular, are not being quite accurately represented in the polls.

Anonymous said...

Have a look at SurveyMonkey and married women:

Fascinating how the demographic is closely matching what will be the final EC results. And now the campaign knows he has no shot in PA.

Anonymous said...

284-254 Hillary. If she loses PA or MI, Trump wins. Long election night. Much drinking.

--Member of the TTU survivors association.