Another Day in Trumpian Foreign Policy: Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Maple Victory?

Bargaining with someone of bad faith is likely to go badly.  So, yeah, the US-Canada trade relations were most fraught.*  Because Trump can't keep his word (see his divorces, his bankruptcies, his many bluffs and retreats), Canadian negotiators had to be most wary.  Yet, because of the extreme leverage the US has over Canada--so many jobs in Canada are dependent, one way or another, on trade with the southern neighbor--Prime Minister Carney and his team were willing to make significant compromises.  But when the US made more demands, that blew up the deal apparently.

As I have posted here, since Trump is of bad faith, one should only negotiate over things that you are willing to do anyway.  The best example of this is: sure, put the F-35s in the deal, as Canada was (is?) still going to buy them anyway.  But don't give away much more than that, because Trump will just ask for more.  

The history here is illustrative.  Trump came into office demanding that NAFTA be revised even though it was a pretty good deal, and it reshaped markets in all three countries, making any big change very costly.  So, Mexico and Canada agreed to USMCA or CUSMA or NAFTA 2.0, which didn't really change much but gave Trump the ability to say he made a deal. Which, after all, is mostly what Trump wants--credit for making a deal, no matter what is in the deal.  Then Trump became President again** and decided to coerce Canada into another agreement, this time demanding many things that Carney couldn't really compromise on:

• Dairy access. Supply management is super annoying to me and many Canadians as it means higher prices for eggs, milk, cheese, etc, but the dairy cartel is very powerful here. So, there was no way Carney could give it up, especially for a promise by Trump to .... stop yammering at Canada for a few weeks.  
• Booze. In retaliation for all of Trump's bullshit--the tariffs and the 51st state stuff and the like--the provinces (not the federal government) decided not to buy American wine and liquor for their stores.  Since Ontario owns all of the beer and liquor stores, it happens to be the largest single purchaser of Americcan booze. Or was, until Trump pissed off Conservative premier (governor) Doug Ford.  Federal-provincial relations in Canada are complex, and, I believe the technical term is fucked.  The provinces didn't give the feds info about who got the covid vaccines even though the feds gave the provinces the vaccines.  Anyhow, Carney can't make the provinces change their stances.  However, it would have been fun to see the provinces return to the status quo ante and see most Canadians refusing to buy American booze.  
• Dropping all retaliatory tariffs while the US maintained the right to tariff anytime it felt like.  Disarming oneself while the other side maintains its weapons pointed at you is a non-starter.

Carney would have faced a big blowback had he surrendered on this agreement.  The news was already full of stories about angering compromises on taxing the big tech firms that have been trying to colonize Canada's information space and other areas.  So, yes, he has his own domestic politics that matters a lot.

But again, the core of this is this: if Carney gave in, Trump could at any point hit Canada again and again.  Trump has already been violating past agreements with Canada, so why would anyone think this one is binding?  With the Trumpers, including JD Vance shitting on Canada in the last few days, having no credibility to keep a commitment, Carney could not gamble here.

So, now we are in a trade war.  Americans will pay higher prices for Canadian goods and for goods that compete with Canadian goods (people forget that when tariffs increase the costs of importing, domestic producers will raise their prices to almost match the new prices).  Nice move before the midterms, Donnie.  

And no, Canada is not nasty for protecting its interests. Again, heaps of projection here since Canada's real sin for Trump is that it does not bend the knee.  

*  I am not a trade expert--Meredith Lilly, Jen Robson, Jeni Armstrong, and other sharp minds can speak to the trade stuff.  But I do teach US foreign policy, so I have to think about this stuff.

** One of the less fun parts of the Summer Institute this past week was being asked how Trump could win a second time given all that he did in his first term.  Oy.