More Threat Deflation: Hypersonic Missile Edition

 I keep hearing about the threat of hypersonic missiles, and I keep wondering how this changes things?

 My bias: I am a big believer in mutual assured destruction and a big skeptic of strategic missile defense.

Yes, countries are developing missiles that go much faster.   Does this dramatically increase the threat to North America?  I don't believe it does.  The US has not yet developed a reliable, near 100% system for defending itself against ballistic missiles, so the impact of such hypersonics is ... to hasten our deaths in a nuclear war.  We would die faster.

I have heard some folks say that Canada might get hit by Russian or Chinese hypersonics equipped with conventional warheads during a Taiwan or Baltic scenario to discourage our participation.  Let me point out some of the problems with this:

•  the most obvious is: why should either country care that much about Canadian participation in such a conflict?
• any missiles being flung at Canadian cities (which are almost all near the US) would be seen as an attack on the US.  How confident can Chinese or Russian leaders be that the U.S. would not respond upon launch with a nuclear response?  Remember, a key to nuclear deterrence is that you only need a small risk of the worst thing happening to do deter.  So, can Xi or Putin or whoever be 100% the US wouldn't fire back? 

One of the basics of the nuclear era is that offense is easier/cheaper than defense, so any effort to build up defenses will be a waste of money in an offense/defense arms race.  We are seeing this now with drones versus counter-drone technology--that the US has used up most of its anti-missile missiles and Iran has plenty more cheap drones to send at American ships and other targets.  Maybe there will be a breakthrough for a cheaper way to knock down drones.  And, of course, a few conventional drones leaking through is not a huge deal.  A few nuclear hypersonic missiles will absolutely ruin your day.

So, yes, we should not be pleased that missiles are getting faster, but it does not change the fundamental reality that has existed since the 1960s--mutual assured destruction deters nuclear war.  Does it deter conventional war?  Absolutely in Europe--Putin has not engaged in any conventional attacks despite much temptation.  Does it work in South Asia?  Kind of, sort of.  Yes, India and Pakistan have engaged in conflict, but thus far, none has escalated very far.  The two countries fought several major wars before they each had nuclear weapons. 

Anyhow, I keep seeing all kinds of threats being inflated, but the world is scary enough without exaggerating some of them.  The reality is that climate change and far right subversion of democracy are realities that are hurting people every day, and, no, the military can't help us with those.  So, let's focus on the real threats that are doing real damage, and stop fantasizing about the other stuff.