We should not be too surprised to see the surveys narrow as the Scottish Referendum approaches. This tends to happen as the ambivalent folks leaning towards Yes start saying yes rather than undecided. Mobilization is occurring. More importantly, this study shows that the range of outcomes includes a Yes victory.
Woot for the Scottish separatists? Well, sort of. The probability distribution still shows that it is likely that the Nays will have it.
The biggest threat for the No movement, other than the British government doing something really stupid (like threatening to pull out of the EU some more), is complacency. Turnout matters. And that is really where the uncertainty is. Between now and September 18th, people may not change their minds much about whether Scotland should be independent or not, but they may change their mind on whether they will vote or not.
I am no turn-out expert, but I think this news story, if it gets played up in Scotland, might be good for the No side. While it might encourage more Yes people to vote, complacency is the big threat for the No side--I don't have to vote because the referendum will fail. Well, now they might just be a bit less confident and a bit more mobilized as well.
So, perhaps the folks at Monkey Cage are doing the No side a favor?
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Civil-Military Relations, Academia, Politics in General, Selected Silliness
Showing posts with label voting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label voting. Show all posts
Friday, August 1, 2014
Monday, September 23, 2013
Voting Rules and Perverse Outcomes: Understanding the Emmys
First, to be clear, I didn't watch much of the Emmys as my priority was, naturally and logically, watching the penultimate episode of Breaking Bad.
Second, I have no real knowledge of how the voting works for the Emmys. This is all just ruthless speculation.
Third, I have not worked on voting rules in over a decade.
Fourth, I am just trying to avoid grading.
Ok, with those caveats out of the way, let me explain the importance of the "drunk frat brother" voter here. When you have more than two candidates running for one spot and the winner is the one that gets a bare plurality of votes, then you can get strange outcomes, like Jesse the Body Ventura becoming Governor of Minnesota with 37% of the vote. In many-sided elections, really small swings can matter a great deal, leading to outcomes where 2/3's of the electorate may have voted for someone other than the winner. I saw that in Montreal, where a three sided race left the tarnished incumbent in power with just a bit more than one third of the vote with the majority of the city voting for two other candidates.
With the Emmys, I think what happens is that voters have to choose among five or six or even seven candidates, which means that someone could with just more than 20% of the vote, 17% of the vote or even 14%.....
So, what this means is that vote-splitting can lead to an unlikely outcome, such as Jeff Daniels winning Best Actor in a Drama when very few people consider that role to be deserving of an award, especially when Bryan Cranston is having an amazing run, where Jon Hamm still has not won for great performances, and so on. This is probably one of the best examples of the least popular candidate winning because of votes being split among the more favored candidates, including Damian Lewis and Kevin Spacey as well.
The same could have occurred with Best Actress in a Drama but Claire Danes was viewed by most as the favored candidate. To be clear, it is the best single episode since that is all that the voters have to watch, so Danes may not have been consistent (I don't know, haven't seen season two), but one could easily imagine her having the best episode. I cannot say the same about Jeff Daniels having any episode better than the best that Cranston, Hamm, Lewis and Spacey delivered.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama? Breaking Bad dudes split their votes, and other folks split between Peter Dinklage and Mandy Patinkin. Bobby Cannavale might have been swell, but better than these other folks? Again, no way.
Since we cannot have a series of runoff votes, the solution would be to have a system where people get to vote their preferences, and once their candidate is eliminated, their second preferences get added to the surviving candidates and so on until someone gets a majority. Such electoral systems do exist (in Sri Lanka), so why not with the Emmys and Oscars? Because it would require folks in Hollywood to think a bit more, I guess.
Second, I have no real knowledge of how the voting works for the Emmys. This is all just ruthless speculation.
Third, I have not worked on voting rules in over a decade.
Fourth, I am just trying to avoid grading.
Ok, with those caveats out of the way, let me explain the importance of the "drunk frat brother" voter here. When you have more than two candidates running for one spot and the winner is the one that gets a bare plurality of votes, then you can get strange outcomes, like Jesse the Body Ventura becoming Governor of Minnesota with 37% of the vote. In many-sided elections, really small swings can matter a great deal, leading to outcomes where 2/3's of the electorate may have voted for someone other than the winner. I saw that in Montreal, where a three sided race left the tarnished incumbent in power with just a bit more than one third of the vote with the majority of the city voting for two other candidates.
With the Emmys, I think what happens is that voters have to choose among five or six or even seven candidates, which means that someone could with just more than 20% of the vote, 17% of the vote or even 14%.....
So, what this means is that vote-splitting can lead to an unlikely outcome, such as Jeff Daniels winning Best Actor in a Drama when very few people consider that role to be deserving of an award, especially when Bryan Cranston is having an amazing run, where Jon Hamm still has not won for great performances, and so on. This is probably one of the best examples of the least popular candidate winning because of votes being split among the more favored candidates, including Damian Lewis and Kevin Spacey as well.
The same could have occurred with Best Actress in a Drama but Claire Danes was viewed by most as the favored candidate. To be clear, it is the best single episode since that is all that the voters have to watch, so Danes may not have been consistent (I don't know, haven't seen season two), but one could easily imagine her having the best episode. I cannot say the same about Jeff Daniels having any episode better than the best that Cranston, Hamm, Lewis and Spacey delivered.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama? Breaking Bad dudes split their votes, and other folks split between Peter Dinklage and Mandy Patinkin. Bobby Cannavale might have been swell, but better than these other folks? Again, no way.
Since we cannot have a series of runoff votes, the solution would be to have a system where people get to vote their preferences, and once their candidate is eliminated, their second preferences get added to the surviving candidates and so on until someone gets a majority. Such electoral systems do exist (in Sri Lanka), so why not with the Emmys and Oscars? Because it would require folks in Hollywood to think a bit more, I guess.
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